Columns

Bucs: Time to gauge what must be coughed up

Despite the smoke, you try to see. Despite the babble, you try to listen. Despite the fertilizer, you try to smell.

By GARY SHELTON
Published April 22, 2007

Despite the smoke, you try to see. Despite the babble, you try to listen. Despite the fertilizer, you try to smell.

Ah, yes. It must be draft week.

By now, you have read a thousand mock drafts. You have heard a hundred rumors. Never has so much been said by so many who know so little, and still, you have listened to every word.

And, really, it comes down to this:

How much is that touchdown in the window?

By now, most football fans in Tampa Bay will agree on this: Calvin Johnson. If the NFL draft was an election, Johnson, a wide receiver from Georgia Tech, would win in a landslide. Around here, fans can tell you all about him: his size, his speed, his skills, his love of Cheech and Chong movies. Everything.

As for the Bucs, Jon Gruden loves Johnson, too. We know that because Gruden loves everybody. At last count, Jon Gruden was atwitter over Johnson and Joe Thomas, over Brady Quinn and Adrian Peterson. There is something about the draft, it seems, that turns Gruden into Paris Hilton.

Most of that is smoke screen, of course. Gruden loves a mystery, especially when he's creating it. No, I don't believe the Bucs might draft a quarterback. No, I don't think it will be Peterson, either.

Johnson, on the other hand, is the guy the Bucs should love. He has star quality. He has great reviews. Most of all, he leads the league in the important category of "immediate impact."

On the other hand, can we please get a price check?

For the Bucs, and for those who follow along, this is where the shopping gets complicated. When it comes to Johnson, how much is too much to pay?

The No. 4 pick? If Johnson is available at the No. 4 pick, the Bucs should send large, expensive gifts to every team above them for not taking him. Portable DVD players are nice.

But do you really expect the Bucs to get that lucky? I know that Johnson has admitted smoking marijuana, but I don't care if his chimney looks as if he has elected a new pope. If the best player in the draft falls that far, the NFL needs to start giving the Wonderlic to general managers.

Gut feeling: There is a 27 percent chance that Johnson falls to fourth. Staying pat is risky.

That's why so many rumors have sprouted over the Bucs' eagerness to move up for Johnson. According to some stories, Gruden is willing to give up as many picks, players and paychecks as it takes. If someone wants to use his office as an offseason condo, that's fine, too.

Come on. The Bucs aren't going to trade all of their first day's draft picks for the rights to Johnson. Even a team that gave John Lynch's money to Todd Steussie isn't that brain-dead. For a team that has this many holes, that would be like spending the rent money on stereo speakers.

Gut feeling: There is a 0 percent chance the Bucs trade their first four picks for Johnson.

So how about a first and a second? If the Raiders pass, should the Bucs offer their first and the second of their two No. 2s?

You're darned right. The problem is, a lot of teams are going to want Johnson, so it's not likely that's going to win the auction.

Gut feeling: There is a 23 percent chance the Lions would make that deal.

So how about a first and the better of the Bucs' two second-round picks? If that could get it done, would you offer the fourth and 35th picks?

For Tampa Bay, that's a hard decision. No, it still isn't enough if you go by the trade chart. On the other hand, if the trade chart were perfect, accountants would make the trades in the NFL. This isn't Peyton Manning we're talking about. It's a receiver, who will touch the ball eight or nine times a game. It's a receiver, and they have the bust factor of a red balloon at a birthday party.

Gut feeling: Toss in a seventh-rounder, and this deal has a 59 percent chance of happening.

So how about a first and Simeon Rice? That's an interesting notion that has been floated.

If Johnson is still there when the Lions pick, it makes a bit of sense. Rice's best seasons were under Rod Marinelli (now the Detroit coach), and he has only one year left on his contract.

On the other hand, Rice makes a lot of money, and if you remember, the Lions signed former Bucs defensive end Dewayne White.

Gut feeling: Oh, about 19 percent.

In other words, this is going to be a hard deal for the Bucs to pull off. Which leaves us ... where?

Around here, the popular thinking is Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas, because everyone knows how bad the offensive line has been. On the other hand, the Bucs have done a lot of shopping on the line. The defense is getting old, so Gaines Adams might be a sleeper. If Johnson isn't available, trading down will be inviting.

Gut feeling: For the Bucs, it's a one-player draft. It's 61 percent that Tampa Bay swallows hard and pays the price for Johnson.

After all Gruden loves him.

Gary Shelton can be reached at (727) 893-8805.

72ND NFL DRAFT

When/where: Noon Saturday (Rounds 1-3), 11 a.m. April 29 (Rounds 4-7); Radio City Music Hall, New York City.

TV: ESPN, ESPN2, NFL Network.

Fast Facts:

Where they pick

Bucs picks: Nine selections, including four in the first 68. Tampa Bay has two in the second round, including the one it received from the Colts (35th overall) for defensive tackle Anthony McFarland.

Round and overall selection for the Bucs

1 (4), 2 (35, 64), 3 (68), 4 (102), 5 (141), 7 (214, 245, 246)

First-round draft order

1. Oakland Raiders

2. Detroit Lions

3. Cleveland Browns

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5. Arizona Cardinals

6. Washington Redskins

7. Minnesota Vikings

8. Houston Texans

9. Miami Dolphins

10. Atlanta Falcons

11. San Francisco 49ers

12. Buffalo Bills

13. St. Louis Rams

14. Carolina Panthers

15. Pittsburgh Steelers

16. Green Bay Packers

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

18. Cincinnati Bengals

19. Tennessee Titans

20. New York Giants

21. Denver Broncos

22. Dallas Cowboys

23. Kansas City Chiefs

24. New England Patriots (from Seattle)

25. New York Jets

26. Philadelphia Eagles

27. New Orleans Saints

28. New England Patriots

29. Baltimore Ravens

30. San Diego Chargers

31. Chicago Bears

32. Indianapolis Colts

[Last modified April 21, 2007, 23:08:15]