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Warning: Be ready for storm season

By CURTIS KRUEGER
Published June 1, 2007

ADVERTISEMENT [AP photo] Craig Fugate is director of the Division of Emergency Management.

ST. PETE BEACH -- As Florida's top emergency planner, Craig Fugate needs to know which areas of the state face the most danger during the six-month hurricane season that begins today.

High on his list: the Tampa Bay area.

Fugate, who directs the Division of Emergency Management, sat down with the Times this week to explain why.

When you look all across the state, where does Tampa Bay rank in terms of being vulnerable to a hurricane?
I think they're in the top 3. Populationwise, you probably have one of the most complex, challenging evacuations just because of the number of people that live around and near the water. ... The Keys certainly are a huge challenge for us. And then the Miami-Dade, South Florida area, just because of the density of population. But when you look at just geographically, the vulnerability and the numbers, Tampa Bay's definitely one of the highest-risk areas in the state. And it's also been an area that's been relatively unscathed by the major impacts of a hurricane since the '20s. So not a lot of experience here. I heard this a lot, "Well, we went through Hurricane Frances, we went through Hurricane Jeanne." Well, you went through Tropical Storm Frances and Tropical Storm Jeanne because they weren't a hurricane when they came through here.

You think we're maybe complacent here?
People in Tampa Bay need to take a look at what happened along the Mississippi Coast. ... The thing that's going to cause us the greatest challenge here in the Tampa Bay region from the standpoint of loss of life and just sheer damages is going to be that storm surge. ... I don't think people understand how powerful water is.

Do you worry what would happen if we do get hundreds of thousands of people in Pinellas trying to stream out through those bridges? Could that be a disaster of its own if too many people leave at the same time?
When it becomes a disaster is if people didn't leave early enough and there's people still trying to get on those causeways when the storm is upon us. And we've got traffic stuck in spaghetti junction, you can't get off the roads, there's nowhere to go.

What will happen to them if they're on those bridges when the hurricane comes?
They'll probably die. I mean, you look at the causeways, you're not high above the water -- imagine what it'd be like out there trapped, and that water starts coming in and your car starts getting battered with those waves, now it starts getting pushed off the road. It's the terror of that. That's why as bad as the traffic's going to be, part of the plan down here in Tampa Bay is to call those evacuations early. ... If people will heed the evacuation order, as miserable as that evacuation's going to be, they'll get to high ground. But if they wait until the very end, they may not have enough time. ...

I guess the best way to put it is, you drive across (Tampa Bay) either way, morning or evening, take your worst commute and multiply it by a factor of 10. And that's an evacuation.

Four or five hours from St. Pete to get out of Tampa?
That may be optimistic in a hurricane evacuation. You could be sitting there for 10 hours. But think about it, the evacuation started 24 hours before they expect the tropical force winds to get there. Yeah, you may be in a traffic jam for 10 hours, but you still got out before the storm got there.

So you should have at least three days' food and water?
Three days minimum, more if you can stock it up and keep track of it. ... June 1 is a sales tax holiday, we've got radios tax free, batteries, just a lot of different supplies. But remember, your nonperishable foods, your water and your first aid kits are always tax free in Florida. So you can stock up on those any time.

If you could only put three things in your hurricane kit, what you put in it?
Water, first aid kit and a radio. You can go a couple days without food. You're not going to go very long without water in our heat. First aid kit, particularly if you've got any medications you've got to take on a regular basis, some simple stuff there because people get banged up ... and a radio to get information so you know where help's at. The isolation people feel when they can't get any outside communication can almost be paralyzing.

As a disaster planner, what gives you nightmares about Tampa Bay?
You've got a lot of elder folks here, a lot of retirees that don't have nearby families. You have very dense population right along the water. The evacuation routes are very congested on a day-to-day basis. ...

I don't think anybody thought you could lose several thousand people in a hurricane in the United States because all of our advances in technology, all the satellites, all the forecasting. We lost that many in Katrina. We could lose that many people in Tampa Bay. The death toll here in Tampa Bay could be in the thousands if people don't move to higher ground if people aren't prepared and people don't act. (Note: A National Hurricane Center report lists the total Hurricane Katrina deaths as 1, 833.)

Times researcher Carolyn Edds contributed to this report.

[Last modified June 1, 2007, 01:01:52]