Print

Email story

Comment

Email editor

Hurricane forecasters expect a very active storm season

FORT COLLINS, Colo. - Hurricane researcher William Gray released his newest forecast Thursday, still showing an expectation for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense.

Gray, based at Colorado State University, described it as a very active season. He said there was a 74 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast.

There is a 50 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast, according to the new forecast.

The chance of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas, is 49 percent. There is also an above-average chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean, according to the forecast.

Thursday's forecast was largely unchanged from Gray's last forecast, released in early April.

"We expect an above-average hurricane season, " said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team and lead author of the forecast.

Hurricane forecasts are often spotty - last year most experts predicted a busy season, but relatively few severe storms developed. But reports that are issued in May, like this one, have a better track record than those released earlier, when there are still too many variables for long-term predictions.

Times Staff Writer Curtis Krueger contributed to this report.

Fast Facts:

On the Web

To see more detailed poll results and learn how to prepare for hurricane season, visit hurricanesafety.org.

By the numbers

According to a Mason-Dixon poll released Thursday:

53 percent of people surveyed in 18 Atlantic and Gulf Coast states say they don't feel vulnerable to a hurricane.

88 percent said they had not taken steps to fortify their homes.

16 percent said they would defy orders to evacuate.

61 percent of poll respondents had no hurricane survival kit.

25 percent did not know that standard homeowners insurance policies do not cover flooding.

The May 10-15 telephone poll of 1, 100 people has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

[Last modified June 1, 2007, 14:28:02]