Columns

Success seems closer than ever

By JOHN ROMANO
Published June 8, 2007

ST. PETERSBURG - And now, the rotation is complete.

You begin tomorrow with James Shields and keep going until you get to David Price in 2009. In between, you might need to go to the bullpen once or twice.

Considering we already have survived Jason Standridge, Dewon Brazelton and raging forest fires, is it too much to ask for just a little more patience with the latest of Tampa Bay's first-round pitching prospects?

Because, finally, there is legitimate reason to believe. The pitchers may not have caught up to the hitters in this organization, but you can at least picture them coming together over a pennant race in '09.

And maybe that sounds like a ridiculously kind assessment, but, come draft day, shouldn't we all have a little Paula Abdul in us?

For, as of this moment, the Devil Rays are closer than ever before to becoming a legitimate contender. They may still lose 90 games this season and could struggle to reach .500 next season, but the promise is there.

Just as you once imagined a lineup with Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young and B.J. Upton, you can now begin envisioning a rotation with Shields, Price, Scott Kazmir and Jeff Niemann.

So just how much closer did the Rays get to completing their master plan on Thursday?

"Potentially, significantly, " executive vice president Andrew Friedman said. "Any time you can add a pitcher who projects to the front of the rotation, it benefits the whole team greatly. Some other pitcher who might be talented enough to be a back-end rotation starter could now get pushed to the bullpen which, in turn, makes the bullpen stronger. There's a real trickle-down effect.

"With how close we believe Price is to the major leagues, coupled with the amount of talent we already have at the major-league level and in Triple A, we're excited about the prospects of all of them being together for a number of years."

There is now a window of opportunity from 2009-12 that could be similar to what we have seen in recent years with Oakland and Minnesota and other low-revenue teams. Crawford and Aki Iwamura have contract options through 2010, with Baldelli's options running through 2011. Kazmir is under control through 2010, while Young, Upton and Shields cannot test free agency until after 2012.

For Tampa Bay, this is the only way it can work. The Rays get sticker shock when they shop for crummy relievers, so, unless Mark Buehrle agrees to a 36-months-same-as-cash deal, don't expect them to get starters in free agency.

No, the recipe has to be grooming pitchers in the farm system and then supplementing the roster with the occasional bat on the free-agent market.

For instance, the Rays could go looking for a left-handed hitting first baseman this offseason. Or maybe an upgrade at catcher. Just so long as they don't bust the budget with a Gil Meche or a Ted Lilly.

Tampa Bay is far better off spending a draft pick and $6-million or so on a prospect such as Price instead of getting tied up in a long-range contract with a run-of-the-mill type of starter.

In their first five drafts, the Rays ignored this basic truth. They were fixated on body types and position players. From 1996 to 2000, the Rays selected only one pitcher in the first two rounds of a draft.

And they have been playing catchup ever since. The Rays took college pitchers in the first two rounds in 2001. They took college pitchers in the first round in 2004 and '05. And now, for the first time, they took a pitcher No. 1 overall.

"Pitching is king, " Friedman said. "Everybody knows about our position players. And while I think our pitching depth is a little bit underrated, you can never have enough."

Look, drafting pitchers is an inexact science. And, around here, we know that better than anyone. The Rays have had a decade's worth of drafts and have yet to come up with a pitcher who has won 10 games in a season.

So Price still has much to prove. He must prove his arm was not overburdened by 130-pitch outings at Vanderbilt. He must prove his changeup can be an effective pitch. Mostly, he must prove he is not Brazelton.

And, for that matter, Niemann must still arrive. And Mitch Talbot. And Jason Hammel and Wade Davis. Infielders Evan Longoria and Reid Brignac are still to come. And Upton and Young are barely months into their careers.

To picture the Rays as contenders in 2009 requires a lot of faith because there is still not nearly enough evidence.

But, on this day, it might be worth believing.

On this day, you can almost see it.

John Romano can be reached at romano@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8811.

[Last modified June 8, 2007, 02:11:36]