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Would we fail like New Orleans?
By CURTIS KRUEGER
Published June 9, 2007
We all know a hurricane could smash the Pinellas beach towns, flood downtown Tampa, destroy entire neighborhoods, crumple the bridges. What we don't know is if we're up to it. If the Big One roars into Tampa Bay, would we stay in our houses too long, like the people who drowned in Hurricane Katrina? Would police officers walk off the job, like the ones of New Orleans? Would the poor be stranded, like the families that huddled inside the Superdome? Would a hurricane be Tampa Bay's finest hour, or a fiasco like the storm that overwhelmed New Orleans? Here is the bad news: Sooner or later, we are likely to find out. So here is a look at what went wrong in New Orleans according to congressional studies, and an evaluation of where the Tampa Bay area stacks up on those same issues. | COMPARING NEW ORLEANS AND THE TAMPA BAY REGION | | Issue | New Orleans | Tampa Bay | | WOULD WE FLOOD LIKE NEW ORLEANS? | The levees broke, and water flooded the bowl-shaped portion of New Orleans that sits below sea level. | We're not below sea level, so floodwaters would quickly slosh back into the bay and gulf. But damage would be done. Our topography makes us vulnerable to a dangerous surge of water rising as high as 20 feet. In the worst-case scenario, a storm would shove the seawater back into Tampa Bay, where tons of it would flow into low-lying areas like downtown Tampa and Oldsmar. "It's going to come in like a bulldozer," says former National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield. "The biggest concern that I would have would be for the loss of life during the event and that's why there's some people in that St. Pete-Tampa area that can't afford not to evacuate." | | WOULD WE GET FOOD AND WATER? | From the local level to the federal level, governments failed to communicate well enough to get food and water shipped in. Some commodities took a week to arrive. | The problem here may be access. Pinellas is an isolated peninsula. A storm could weaken or destroy bridges crossing Tampa Bay, so relief supplies would have to be trucked in from the north. What if those roads are clogged with downed trees and power poles? Emergency officials have a plan to fly food and water into St. Petersburg-Clearwater International Airport. But it would take time, leaving people to eat out of their hurricane boxes a little bit longer. | | WOULD WE EVACUATE? | The governor and mayor failed to order an evacuation until 19 hours before the storm hit. | Local emergency managers know our bridges and highways take a long time to evacuate, so they are primed to issue evacuation orders as early as possible. They've done so in the past when severe storms approached. The question is whether enough people will obey. Florida emergency management director Craig Fugate says he worries Tampa Bay residents will wait too long before deciding to evacuate low-lying areas, and by then roads may be too clogged. Waiting for the next forecast could be you signing your own death warrant, he says. | | WOULD THE POOR BE LEFT BEHIND? | People without cars were left stranded in the city, even as unused school buses sat uselessly in a flooded lot. Needy families huddled in the Louisiana Superdome, without food or working toilets. | Pinellas and Hillsborough counties say they would keep public buses running as long as possible on many normal routes, and take residents to shelters. This would, in theory, give car-less people a ride to safe shelters. The major stadiums - Tropicana Field, Raymond James Stadium and the St. Pete Times Forum - are not designated as shelters. However, the Sun Dome at the University of South Florida has been designated as a special needs shelter, with food to be supplied by a university cafeteria. | | WOULD THE POLICE GIVE UP? | The Police Department's communications and command structure collapsed, adding to the lawlessness and despair. | This is a case-by-case, person-by-person situation, but local law enforcement agencies say they have worked to prepare. Many have backup communications plans, such as the Pinellas County sheriff's portable radio tower, and the ham radio operators at the Tampa Police Department. The Pinellas Sheriff's Office says it has sent as many as 200 deputies to help in hurricane situations elsewhere, which makes them better trained for a disaster here. Tampa even has a special shelter for officers' families, on the theory that if people know their spouses and children are safe, they're more likely to come to work. | | WOULD THE CAVALRY COME IN? | Congressional reports criticize the federal government for not doing enough to help the disaster victims quickly. And they also slam local and state leaders for, in many cases, failing to even ask for the help. | Florida has been battered repeatedly by hurricanes in recent years, and emergency managers say that has helped them get systems in place. The law makes it clear that local mayors and the heads of county commissions have authority over several emergency matters, for example. But experts say hurricane response requires all the different groups within a region to work together. Pinellas County alone has 24 municipalities, and cross-bay cooperation has not always been good. All the pieces will have to work together. |
[Last modified June 9, 2007, 07:23:33]
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