Hillsborough: Would we fail like New Orleans?

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Would we fail like New Orleans?

By CURTIS KRUEGER
Published June 9, 2007

We all know a hurricane could smash the Pinellas beach towns, flood downtown Tampa, destroy entire neighborhoods, crumple the bridges.

What we don't know is if we're up to it.

If the Big One roars into Tampa Bay, would we stay in our houses too long, like the people who drowned in Hurricane Katrina? Would police officers walk off the job, like the ones of New Orleans? Would the poor be stranded, like the families that huddled inside the Superdome?

Would a hurricane be Tampa Bay's finest hour, or a fiasco like the storm that overwhelmed New Orleans?

Here is the bad news: Sooner or later, we are likely to find out.

So here is a look at what went wrong in New Orleans according to congressional studies, and an evaluation of where the Tampa Bay area stacks up on those same issues.

COMPARING NEW ORLEANS AND THE TAMPA BAY REGION

Issue

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

WOULD WE FLOOD LIKE NEW ORLEANS?

The levees broke, and water flooded the bowl-shaped portion of New Orleans that sits below sea level.

We're not below sea level, so floodwaters would quickly slosh back into the bay and gulf. But damage would be done. Our topography makes us vulnerable to a dangerous surge of water rising as high as 20 feet. In the worst-case scenario, a storm would shove the seawater back into Tampa Bay, where tons of it would flow into low-lying areas like downtown Tampa and Oldsmar. "It's going to come in like a bulldozer," says former National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield. "The biggest concern that I would have would be for the loss of life during the event and that's why there's some people in that St. Pete-Tampa area that can't afford not to evacuate."

WOULD WE GET FOOD AND WATER?

From the local level to the federal level, governments failed to communicate well enough to get food and water shipped in. Some commodities took a week to arrive.

The problem here may be access. Pinellas is an isolated peninsula. A storm could weaken or destroy bridges crossing Tampa Bay, so relief supplies would have to be trucked in from the north. What if those roads are clogged with downed trees and power poles? Emergency officials have a plan to fly food and water into St. Petersburg-Clearwater International Airport. But it would take time, leaving people to eat out of their hurricane boxes a little bit longer.

WOULD WE EVACUATE?

The governor and mayor failed to order an evacuation until 19 hours before the storm hit.

Local emergency managers know our bridges and highways take a long time to evacuate, so they are primed to issue evacuation orders as early as possible. They've done so in the past when severe storms approached. The question is whether enough people will obey. Florida emergency management director Craig Fugate says he worries Tampa Bay residents will wait too long before deciding to evacuate low-lying areas, and by then roads may be too clogged. Waiting for the next forecast could be you signing your own death warrant, he says.

WOULD THE POOR BE LEFT BEHIND?

People without cars were left stranded in the city, even as unused school buses sat uselessly in a flooded lot. Needy families huddled in the Louisiana Superdome, without food or working toilets.

Pinellas and Hillsborough counties say they would keep public buses running as long as possible on many normal routes, and take residents to shelters. This would, in theory, give car-less people a ride to safe shelters. The major stadiums - Tropicana Field, Raymond James Stadium and the St. Pete Times Forum - are not designated as shelters. However, the Sun Dome at the University of South Florida has been designated as a special needs shelter, with food to be supplied by a university cafeteria.

WOULD THE POLICE GIVE UP?

The Police Department's communications and command structure collapsed, adding to the lawlessness and despair.

This is a case-by-case, person-by-person situation, but local law enforcement agencies say they have worked to prepare. Many have backup communications plans, such as the Pinellas County sheriff's portable radio tower, and the ham radio operators at the Tampa Police Department. The Pinellas Sheriff's Office says it has sent as many as 200 deputies to help in hurricane situations elsewhere, which makes them better trained for a disaster here. Tampa even has a special shelter for officers' families, on the theory that if people know their spouses and children are safe, they're more likely to come to work.

WOULD THE CAVALRY COME IN?

Congressional reports criticize the federal government for not doing enough to help the disaster victims quickly. And they also slam local and state leaders for, in many cases, failing to even ask for the help.

Florida has been battered repeatedly by hurricanes in recent years, and emergency managers say that has helped them get systems in place. The law makes it clear that local mayors and the heads of county commissions have authority over several emergency matters, for example. But experts say hurricane response requires all the different groups within a region to work together. Pinellas County alone has 24 municipalities, and cross-bay cooperation has not always been good. All the pieces will have to work together.

[Last modified June 9, 2007, 07:23:33]

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Comments on this article

by G-Money	06/11/07 10:52 AM
Your geography doesn't offer the same long-term water retention that we had here in New Orleans. But, if it does happen - prepare to bulldoze the entire place. Don't make the same mistake we have in trying to save a wasteland.

by Irwin	06/10/07 10:57 AM
19 hours ? State law restricted Mayor Nagin from ordering a mandatory evacuation until shelters in other parts of the state were open. Prior to the mandatory evacuation order, he urged New Orleanians to leave. Most did.

by Mark Folse	06/09/07 10:08 PM
It's not accurate that an evacuation began 19 hours before the storm. Contraflow (all roads lead out) began much sooner and there was the most succesful evacuation of a major metro area in US history (compare Houston's catastrophic response to Rita).

by Lin	06/09/07 03:24 PM
Depending on a hurricane's path, evacuation routes can clog quickly cutting off that option in such a heavily populated peninsular state. Supplies could be flown into Albert Whitted or parachute dropped into city and county parks for distribution.

by Laura	06/09/07 01:45 PM
Pinellas ER people are prepared-but do enough citizens have a plan? We can't expect our gov't to do it all - and the foolish will expect just that. And the gov't will get blamed.

by Jim	06/09/07 10:40 AM
I think if a storm were to hit close to use I could be ok. I have a back up generator, extra food and water for close to 2 weeks and hurricane shutters to protect my home. The attic is strenghten like no other in the area.

by DR	06/09/07 10:29 AM
My concern would be with evacuating the poor and elderly, as we do have a large population of both. My other concern would be with those who refuse to leave, but they can only blame themselves. We've had so many close calls/false alarms...

by JOE	06/09/07 08:53 AM
Born and living in Tampa all my life, yes we would FAIL. Those that believe local, state and federal government would come through are in OZ. Look at the cut backs the residents want. Those same residents better buy a raft, they will need it.

by Cindy	06/09/07 08:48 AM
When Charley threatened us in '04, I was surprised to see how quickly the area authorities reacted and evacuated downtown. Now, our biggest worry is complacency by a population that thinks tropical storm wind is a hurricane.

by Sparky	06/09/07 08:19 AM
I lived through Hurricane Andrew. If Tampa is hit with a Cat 5, you're toast.

by E.C.	06/09/07 08:17 AM
As a resident of lawless South St Pete, my biggest fear is looting. When you have 15 year olds running around with guns when there is NOT a storm, heaven help us if ever go without power a few days.

by Thinker	06/09/07 07:50 AM
It would be rough but there is no doubt in my mind that Tampa Bay could pull through. We would not end up a wasteland like New Orleans.

by gite`	06/09/07 02:20 AM
we will be receiving much more help than la. as we have a republican governor and legislature, though jeb would have helped even more.

by Wayne	06/08/07 11:55 PM
As a state hurricane recon volunteer and present member of the FL Natl Guard. I can attest to our states ESF system as a much more efficient planning organization than the mess that Louisiana had. The key is getting people out early. That is on them.