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Block by block, Big Easy risk is tallied

By ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published June 21, 2007

NEW ORLEANS - Large areas of this city, including sections that are being rebuilt, remain at risk from flooding despite more than $1-billion in work to fix and upgrade the hurricane protection system, according to an Army Corps of Engineers report released Wednesday.

The corps released risk assessments on a block-by-block basis in the form of maps showing the estimated threat of flooding each year from hurricanes.

The mapping was based on extensive modeling and statistical analysis. For example, in a flood that has the likelihood of occurring at least once in 100 years, many neighborhoods in the central part of the city that were inundated during Katrina are now less likely to flood because of levee improvements.

By comparison, other areas like the Lower 9th Ward, Gentilly and St. Bernard Parish have not benefited greatly from levee work done since Katrina hit on Aug. 29, 2005, and could see as much as 8 feet of flooding.

Nearly every part of the city, except for a sliver along the Mississippi River where the French Quarter sits, would flood under current levee conditions in a flood that has the likelihood of occurring once every 500 years. Katrina was a storm that happens once every 400 years, the corps said.

"What we're doing here is showing people what the magnitude of the risk is, " said Lt. Gen. Robert Van Antwerp, the corps' chief engineer. "The whole purpose of providing this information is so people can make a personal decision" about the risk they face.

The corps did not release much-anticipated technical data accompanying the risk assessment, leaving many independent experts unable to assess the accuracy of the agency's assumptions on risk.

The analysis, while not providing a complete picture of the region's present and future vulnerability, will likely be used in rebuilding plans and by insurance companies.

What the maps fail to show is what kind of risk areas face once the corps finishes work to protect the city from a 100-year storm, which is expected to be done by 2011. Ed Link, an engineer with the University of Maryland who oversaw the analysis, said he expects most areas of the city will face much less chance of flooding once that work is done.

The corps said this is the first time an entire levee system's risk potential has been assessed. The same modeling will be performed on other flood defense systems around the nation in the future, corps officials said.

Out in the neighborhoods, the immediate reaction to word of the new risk assessment was primarily: Now they tell us?

Dwight Carter, 55, a school maintenance worker, and his wife, Joann Carter, 53, a school cook, are among a handful of people who have rebuilt a new home in their Gentilly neighborhood. Following U.S. guidelines, the couple raised their home about 3 feet over the ground. But the new maps show that there is a 1 in 100 chance of having 8 feet of water in the area, which sits below sea level.

"I wish they'd told us that, " said Joann, shaking her head.

Information from the Washington Post was used in this report.

[Last modified June 21, 2007, 00:39:57]