Early or not, 2008 is on voters' minds
Voters watch and wait to decide on the presidential candidates.
By ADAM C. SMITH
Published June 25, 2007
WESLEY CHAPEL - As traffic crawled along State Road 54 on a recent muggy afternoon, Laura Demes lugged groceries across a shadeless parking lot.
With family visiting from out of state and a baby boy due in September, you'd think a presidential election 17 months off would be the last thing on her mind.
Wrong.
"I'm definitely paying close attention to the presidential race, " said the 30-year-old teacher, who so far is most impressed with Rudy Giuliani. "It's necessary to be informed, because the state of our union is not where it needs to be right now, and we need to bring about some change."
Nearby in the Publix parking lot off Bruce B. Downs Boulevard, 62-year-old retiree Robert Grier said he is glad to see the 2008 presidential campaign getting started so early.
"I think a lot of people are paying much closer attention this election; I know I am. You have to because the country is in such disarray, " said Grier, a Republican who so far likes Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama the most.
There's no shortage of national issues making these Pasco County voters anxious. Among nearly two dozen random interviews, people talked about Iraq, uncertainty over immigration, health care costs, terrorism and the ineffectiveness of Washington politicians.
As much as Americans like to say they loathe political campaigns, there's ample evidence that the remarkably early presidential contest is grabbing their attention.
Voters may not know who's skipping the straw poll in Ames, Iowa, in August, or the background of Democratic candidate Mike Gravel, but they're following the ups and downs of the race.
Consider that in May 2003, just 27 percent of Americans told the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press that they were paying fairly close or very close attention to the presidential campaign of 2004. Now Pew finds about half of Americans say they are paying fairly close or very close attention to next year's race.
What poll found
A St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll in May found that 72 percent of registered Florida voters said they were following the presidential campaign either somewhat or very closely.
"You have two completely wide open primaries in both parties and you have very famous people running in both parties, " noted pollster Tom Eldon, who conducted the Times/Bay News 9 poll. "But I think this is largely media-driven. The media has decided we're going to start covering the presidential election, ready or not here we go. If you put something in front of people every day, they're going to pay attention to it."
Turn on the cable news outlets any given night, and you'll find presidential politics dominating the discussion. The candidates are constantly on the front pages of most major newspapers.
But that doesn't mean typical voters are anywhere near to making up their minds or tuning into the details of the campaigns. While Rudy Giuliani's support of abortion rights has received considerable publicity, for instance, Pew's latest poll found that among Republican who cite abortion as a very important issue, just 44 percent knew of Giuliani's position.
"At this point they're following the race somewhat, " said Carroll Doherty, associate director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, "but in terms of getting all the facts, it's probably not to that point yet."
Among the harried suburbanites zipping in and out of the Publix in Pasco County the other day, most said they were keeping an eye on the candidates but were a long way from deciding.
"I'm a Republican, but the Republican front-runners seem kind of liberal in my opinion. Who's the Mormon? Mitt Romney? I'd say he probably holds the closest values to mine, but I'm waiting until it really gears up, " said Brandon Cookson, a 22-year-old car seller.
Paying attention
Florida voters have more reason to pay attention earlier than they have in decades because the state is set to hold one of the first primaries. In 2000 and 2004, the presidential nominations were all but clinched by the time of Florida's March ballot and barely one in five voters turned out.
Next year, Florida voters will go to the polls Jan. 29, the earliest of any big state scheduled so far. In addition, the Legislature recently voted to put a big tax cut issue on that same ballot, and a number of local governments around the state are looking to add municipal elections to the same day.
"Right now I think primary voters are paying more attention to the presidential race, but not necessarily general election voters, " said Dave Beattie, a Democratic pollster in the Jacksonville area. "I think Florida's going to have a record turnout for that January primary. People pay attention when they have multiple reasons to pay attention."
Times researcher Carolyn Edds contributed to this report. Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com or 727 893-8241.