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Forecast calls for a vibrant Florida
By Christina Rexrode
Published June 27, 2007
Never mind $3-per-gallon gas or a sluggish housing market. It's going to take more than that to slow down Florida's economy. That's the theory of a researcher at the University of Central Florida, whose first 30-year economic forecast for the state will be published today. Sean Snaith, the forecast's author and the director of UCF's Institute for Economic Competitiveness, says the "soft landing" the state is now experiencing shouldn't have any dire long-term consequences. The population, labor force and gross state product will increase significantly over the next three decades. Manufacturing, he says, will be the only industry to lose jobs. Unemployment will rise, too, but "it's not going to be anything earthshaking, " Snaith said. But don't expect Florida to shed its reputation as a retiree haven: In the Tampa Bay area, the percentage of residents in the labor force will drop from about 49 percent to 46 percent in the next 30 years, mirroring national trends. "It's not going to turn into some hipster place, " Snaith said. Next 30 years look strong University of Central Florida researcher Sean Snaith expects the state's population, labor force and gross state product to increase over the next 30 years. He expects the bay area (Pinellas, Hillsborough, Hernando and Pasco), below, to reflect that trend: | 2007 | 2036 | | Population | 2.8-million | 4.2-million | | Labor force | 1.35-million | 1.9-million | | Unemployment rate | 3.5 percent | 3.9 percent | | Real per-capita income | $31, 000 | $56, 900 | | Gross metro product | $105-billion | $292-billion |
Source: Florida & Metro Forecast: 2007-2036
[Last modified June 27, 2007, 17:02:44]
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by Mark
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06/27/07 10:49 PM
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The last sentence above the table said it was the forecast for the four Tampa Bay counties
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by Bill
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06/27/07 10:41 PM
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You're right, David. Florida does have more than 2.8 million people, it has has something like 14 - 15 million. The table is for the Tampa Bay Metro area.
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by John
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06/27/07 10:02 PM
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The table represents figures for the Tampa Bay metro area not for the state as a whole.
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by PD
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06/27/07 09:01 PM
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He expects the bay area (Pinellas, Hillsborough, Hernando and Pasco), below, to reflect that trend: Read more carfully
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by Dennis
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06/27/07 04:56 PM
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I think you need to read, the table is only 4 counties, pinellas, hillsborough, pasco and hernando.
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by costar
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06/27/07 04:50 PM
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Those figures are for the four counties listed in the paragraph above the figures. I still can't figure out why the Bay area doesn't include Polk, Manatee, and Sarasota counties- it should!
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by David
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06/27/07 02:08 PM
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Table header for forecast is wrong as is total population. I think Florida has more than 2.8 million people in 2007.
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