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Politics

Bush's reprieve for Libby is ammunition for Democrats

Republicans in Congress could suffer in '08.

By WES ALLISON
Published July 4, 2007

WASHINGTON - Once again, President Bush has shown tremendous loyalty to a member of his administration.

Once again, Republicans in Congress may suffer because of it.

The president's decision to erase the two-and-a-half-year prison sentence facing I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, the vice president's former chief of staff, has given Democrats fresh ammunition for their ongoing theme that the Bush administration doesn't play by the same rules as everyone else.

The administration already is under fire for the war in Iraq, the role of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales in firing eight U.S. attorneys and Vice President Dick Cheney's declaration that he isn't part of the executive branch. Political analysts say Bush's reprieve for Libby increases the pressure on congressional Republicans, and may boost the chance more will split with the president on thorny issues like Iraq and Gonzales.

So far, however, only one congressional Republican from Florida, Rep. Gus Bilirakis of Palm Harbor, has publicly broken with party leaders and the president, saying Bush's decision was wrong. Most of the others have just kept mum.

"Mr. Libby was tried by a jury of his peers and was convicted of a felony, " Bilirakis said in a statement. "The fact that Mr. Libby committed this crime while serving as a public official makes it all the more egregious. Excessive or not, Mr. Libby's sentence should be respected."

Meanwhile, the president on Tuesday refused to rule out a full pardon for Libby, who was convicted of lying in the Valerie Plame-CIA leak case earlier this year.

"I felt the punishment was severe, so I made a decision that would commute his sentence, but leave in place a serious fine and probation, " he said in Washington. "As to the future, I rule nothing in or nothing out."

Experts said the stakes for Bush himself are not that high. With approval ratings below 30 percent in many polls, Bush's popularity probably can't drop much further.

At the same time, Libby is popular with Bush's base of conservative supporters, the same loyalists who were furious with the president for pushing a plan to allow millions of illegal immigrants a route to legal status.

"In some ways, this feels like an olive branch to the base, " said Jennifer Duffy, editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

Republicans in Congress, however, have much to lose. Thomas Mann, a senior fellow in governance at the liberal-leaning Brookings Institution, said many were hoping Bush would wait to clear Libby until after the 2008 elections. But a court ruled Monday that Libby must report to prison while his case is appealed, forcing Bush to act.

"I think Republicans in Congress are looking on this with real wariness, thinking it can't help, " Mann said. "They're worried about what it might do to the party in '08."

Democrats already are using Libby's rescue to ding a vulnerable House member from West Virginia who is campaigning with Bush today. And it's been added to a fund-raising pitch for Democratic Senate candidates.

Several GOP congressional leaders, including Rep. Adam Putnam of Bartow, the third-ranking House Republican, issued short statements supporting the president's decision. So did two of the party's leading candidates for president, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. A third, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, didn't comment.

But the other dozen or so congressional Republicans contacted Tuesday wouldn't discuss it or come to the phone. Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite, R-Brooksville, declined through a spokesman to comment. Rep. C.W. Bill Young, R-Indian Shores, couldn't be reached, and a spokesman for Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., said he was on a family vacation. Congress is on a weeklong recess for Independence Day.

Duffy said the Libby commutation will add to a growing list of questions Republican candidates must address in next year's election. While the war may be the most significant one, the others add up.

"It's absolutely going to be an issue that they will ultimately have to answer for, whether it's now or during a debate or in an ad, " Duffy said. "I think you're going to see it come back on the campaign trail for any member who doesn't denounce it."

Libby, 56, was convicted during the federal inquiry into who leaked Valerie Plame's name to reporters as part of an attempt to discredit her husband, Joseph Wilson, a former ambassador who criticized the administration for exaggerating Iraq's nuclear designs before the 2003 invasion. Plame was an undercover CIA agent at the time.

Libby wasn't fingered as the source - in fact no one ever was charged with outing a covert agent - but the jury found Libby guilty of lying to federal investigators looking into the leak. Under the president's decision, Libby still must serve probation and must pay a $250, 000 fine. As a convicted felon, he can't practice law.

President Bush's loyalty has caused trouble for his allies in Congress before. Some Republicans - as well as several ex-members beaten last November - are still irked at Bush for keeping Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Rumsfeld, who had grown unpopular as the day-to-day face of the war in Iraq, resigned the day after the elections, when Democrats had taken control of the House and the Senate. GOP aides and some members say firing Rumsfeld sooner would have robbed the Democrats of a key target and helped some Republicans keep their seats.

Republicans have been more forceful about Bush's current Cabinet crisis, with many, including Putnam, joining Democrats in calling for the ouster of Attorney General Gonzales, who is facing questions about his role in the firing of eight U.S. attorneys for apparently political reasons.

Gonzales and Bush have intensified the standoff by refusing to release key documents to congressional investigators.

Tom Eldon, vice president of Schroth, Eldon and Associates, a polling firm that works primarily for Democrats, said polls showed few Americans tuned into Libby's trial last year. He questioned how much of an issue it would be in next year's elections.

"On the other hand, it's not helping when you have a presidency in as much crisis as this one, " Eldon said. "You can't not accept that this is a drain on the Bush White House."

Wes Allison can be reached at allison@sptimes.com or 202 463-0577.

[Last modified July 4, 2007, 00:59:34]