Politics

Florida GOP race waits for Thompson

Without declaring his candidacy, Fred Thompson is already getting big support in the state.

By ADAM C. SMITH
Published July 14, 2007

When Jacksonville's most prominent Republican business and political leaders summoned the leading presidential candidates a few weeks ago, most everyone jumped.

After all, winning over the likes of insurance executive Tom Petway and developer John Rood can catapult a statewide campaign in Florida and produce millions in campaign contributions.

So Mitt Romney sent top staffers from Boston and Tallahassee to Petway's executive offices to meet nearly a dozen elite northeast Florida politicos. Rudy Giuliani sent a group that included Attorney General Bill McCollum, and Sen. John McCain sent Marty Fiorentino, a Jacksonville lobbyist and top fundraiser.

"We couldn't find anybody to talk to for Thompson," recounted Rood, a real estate investor and prominent GOP fundraiser. "We finally found somebody who could find somebody who could call us."

In the most unpredictable Republican presidential primary Florida has seen in ages, Fred Thompson is adding a giant extra dose of uncertainty. And just to dramatize the mystery of his strength as a candidate, when campaign finance reports are released on Sunday, Thompson's fundraising figures won't be among them because he has yet to formally enter the race.

Despite that, the Law & Order actor and former Tennessee senator is in second place in Florida polls. Giuliani, who is making Florida's Jan. 29 primary the linchpin of his strategy to win the nomination, has seen his lead shrink in Florida polls from as high as 20 points in March to as low as 6 points in June.

Without even laying out a platform, Thompson, 64, has won more legislative endorsements in Florida than any other Republican. And to ensure no more slips like missing the Jacksonville meeting, Thompson's "testing the waters" committee has hired a respected veteran GOP strategist, Randy Enwright, to help navigate Florida. Enwright also is expected to play a role in the national campaign.

"You had a lot of people who were searching and looking for a candidate and feeling like they were going to have to settle for someone. You don't have to settle with Fred Thompson. Fred Thompson is a candidate you can be excited about," said Rep. Jeff Miller, a Panhandle Republican who recently hosted a fundraising reception for Thompson in Pensacola.

His fans, including Rep. Adam Putnam of Bartow, the third-highest ranking Republican in Congress, see Thompson as the only consistently conservative candidate among the leading Republican contenders. They see a charismatic lawyer with a comforting bourbon-tinged drawl.

"The support for Thompson in this county is really something," said Pasco GOP chairman Bill Bunting, who has a Thompson sticker on his car. "He's a true conservative who really represents the party's values more than anyone else."

Skeptics see a longtime Beltway lobbyist and former back row senator who won't withstand the scrutiny when he finally jumps in. He's already taking heat for reportedly lobbying years ago on behalf of an abortion rights group.

Supporters of other candidates question the viability of a candidate who has talked of riding to the nomination on an unorthodox Internet-driven campaign. They also doubt the depth of his backing.

"His support is a complete and total reflection of his name ID. He's the flavor of the month," Sally Bradshaw, a senior adviser to Romney, said of Thompson.

Florida Republicans are in uncharted territory this year. Not only is there no clear frontrunner for the White House, but the state's especially early primary means it could be pivotal for winning the nomination.

Though national Republican Party rules say Florida will lose half its delegates to the nominating convention, because setting such an early primary date wasn't authorized, it still has more delegates than Iowa and New Hampshire combined.

Giuliani has more staffers organizing in Florida, 11, than any other state, and Romney has had at least that many working in Florida for months for months.

"This is clearly a wide open race," said Rood, who is hoping the leading Jacksonville Republicans will unite behind a single candidate in September. "We've got four candidates attractive in their own way, and each brings something unique. There's also not one person that comes to the table without issues that cause some Republicans to have concerns."

Adding to the uncertainty about the GOP field is speculation that McCain, R-Ariz., may have to drop out despite a relatively strong base of support among key Florida fundraisers and politicians.

Romney supporters around the state have been especially aggressive courting McCain backers amid revelations his campaign has barely $2-million on hand and is in the midst of a desperate reorganization.

They aren't winning over all of them.

"It's premature and foolish to count out McCain," said Ana Navarro, a Miami Republican who is supporting the former prisoner of war. "You don't count out a man who spent five years hanging from his thumbs in a Vietnamese prison."

But if McCain did drop out, she said, Giuliani would likely be the biggest beneficiary among South Florida Cuban-Americans. She said she hears little enthusiasm for Romney or Thompson.

"Our biggest voting bloc in South Florida are hard-line Cuban-Americans," she said. "Your average 70-year-old Cuban-American exile who's listening to Radio Mambi isn't watching a lot of Law & Order."

Former Pinellas County legislator R.Z. "Sandy" Safley, a longtime friend of Thompson who has been leading his effort in Florida, declined to discuss fundraising in detail except that it's "going just as expected."

Until Thompson officially enters the race, he will not have to report his fundraising totals.

Thompson hasn't said yet when he'll formally announce, but he may find being a potential candidate easier than being an actual one.

"Let him get tested right alongside the rest of us," said Mark Guzzetta, a South Florida developer and top Republican fundraiser helping Romney. "How much money can he raise? What's his organization like? What's his vision and new ideas to lead this country forward? Let's see how he does."

Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com or 727 893-8241.

Fast Facts:

Florida's favorite

Quinnipiac University's June 18-25 poll of 373 Florida Republicans (margin of error plus or minus 5.1 percent): Giuliani 27 percent; Fred Thompson 21 percent; John McCain 13 percent; Mitt Romney 6 percent; undecided 18 percent.

[Last modified July 14, 2007, 00:11:42]