Cutbacks in sight for road projects

Building permits for the year are on pace to come in at less than was predicted.

By CHUIN-WEI YAP
Published July 21, 2007

Brace yourselves.

Sometime in the next two months, more road projects may be axed from the county's road building budget.

Earlier this year, Pasco cut projects in 22 locations countywide, worth $950-million, from its five-year roadbuilding budget for 2008 through 2012. That means projects that were supposed to be completed by 2011 were delayed beyond 2012.

The latest figures on the residential market show new growth flattening - the county is issuing about 200 building permits a month.

Market watchers might find comfort in the plateau, because it's better than a continued downward plunge. But it's not doing any favors for county road planners who have to guess where the market's headed.

The first round of cuts was based on planners' calculations that assumed 5,000 building permits for 2007. Those building permits are the revenue source for transportation impact fees, which are a critical portion of road building funds.

Even when they made that forecast back in April, county officials knew they were being a tad optimistic.

"If they don't go right, they're going to have to come back and readjust the budget," county Commissioner Ted Schrader said at the time.

County planners now believe they're on track for just over half of that projection: 2,600.

Commissioners haven't yet told them to start sharpening the ax for Round Two of cuts, so the county's planners may wait a couple more months to see where the market trend goes, said Michele Baker, Pasco's chief assistant county administrator.

"We have enough money to get us through '08 and probably '09," she said. But the budget is for five years, so common sense tells planners to prepare themselves.

"If the second round of cuts happens, it will happen in August, so that it can be adopted in September," Baker said.

Only 1,118 single-family permits were issued between January and June this year, compared to 3,488 in the same period last year, according to Pasco's central permitting division and the U.S. Census Bureau.

June saw 189 permits issued, compared to 473 last year.

Pasco's benchmark indicator hit its all-time low of 127 single-family housing permits in January 2007, since the slowdown began early last year.

In the following months, new housing growth has hovered between 175 and 250 permits.

This is not good news for planners who must count on higher numbers to justify stronger revenue predictions.

But it's not such a bad thing for private-sector home sellers, who see a market that may be starting to turn around.

"I believe the inventory plateau has occurred for single-family units in Pasco because listing inventory dropped for the month of April and has remained stable for the last 90 days," said Natalie Feldman, a real estate broker with Eisner, Feldman & Grant. "This indicates that the saturation point of inventory has occurred."

While supply appears to be stabilizing, Feldman said price stabilization hasn't yet but should catch up.

That's not quite the same note of enthusiasm that was in a July 17 memo Baker wrote when she prepared for negotiations on the Wiregrass Ranch development.

"The revenue estimates for (the next four years) will likely have to be revised downward and additional projects will have to be delayed," she said.

Which ones?

In Round One, the axed projects included some that were near and dear to planners' hearts, like the Collier Parkway extension and the segment of Ridge Road from the Suncoast Parkway to U.S. 41.

As far as Round Two goes, there's no hint yet of what might get cut.

"I don't know," Baker said Friday. "That's the hard part."

Chuin-Wei Yap can be reached at (813) 909-4613 or cyap@sptimes.com.

[Last modified July 20, 2007, 21:58:37]