Columns

The playoffs or bust?

Jon Gruden might need to make the postseason to save his job.

By GARY SHELTON
Published July 24, 2007

Easy job, Jon Gruden's.

The way I figure it, the heavy lifting should be finished by lunch.

Let's see. All Gruden has to do is break in a new quarterback and rediscover a running back and reinvent a wide receiver. He has to cure a pass rush and strengthen a run defense and convince his secondary that covering a forward pass would be a fine idea. He has to build an offensive line and rebuild a defensive line and load a shotgun. He has to keep old players young and make young players older and make sure healthy players stay that way.

Oh, yeah. And one other thing:

Somewhere along the line, Gruden has to figure out what goes in front of the phrase "... or else."

Two days before the Bucs report for training camp, and everyone seems to believe Gruden is in his double-secret probation year. If this isn't Gruden's Last Stand, it's at least the stand to prove it shouldn't be his last. Whether you think it is premature or overdue, after three losing seasons in the past four, it seems Gruden has reached the elimination round.

What, exactly, does that mean? No one knows because the Glazers, who own the team, aren't saying. Does Gruden have to win the Super Bowl to keep his job? Does he have to win a playoff game? Would a winning record but a playoff miss do it? How about a .500 record with a couple of close losses and gushing praise from John Madden?

The way I see it, a playoff berth sounds safe.

The question is, does saying "a playoff berth" sound sane?

Given the activity of the offseason, it would be grand to pronounce that the Bucs have been cured and that playoff tickets are being printed as you read this.

But no matter how many times you check the predictions, there do not appear to be reports of widespread confetti on the horizon. A great many things might weigh down the Bucs in '07, but expectations will not be among them.

I know, I know. The Bucs ought to be better this year than last. The quarterback situation is better. The offensive line is better. The defensive line is better. The linebackers are better. Even the secondary should be better.

But are the Bucs that much better? Are they save-the-day better? Are they turn-the-beat-around better? Probably not.

If you are an optimist, and there aren't many left, you are probably thinking a lot about 2005 these days. If you remember, the Bucs were coming off a perfectly dreadful 5-11 record in 2004, and they bounced back to go 11-5 with a playoff berth the next year. So there.

This time, however, a turnaround from 4-12 would be harder. Remember, as bad as that '04 team was, it still had a superb defense (fifth in the league), which still had a fierce pass rush (45 sacks, third in the league).

When it comes to a turnaround, a great defense is a good place to start.

By comparison, last year's defense fell to 17th, and only one team had fewer sacks than the Bucs. In other words, this hole is deeper.

Still, if the Bucs are going to be significantly better this time, there are some lessons to be learned from '05. They need a fast start. They have to play great defense. They have to run the ball. They have to own the fourth quarter. And yeah, they have to get some breaks late in games.

Most of all, however, the Bucs have to control the NFC South. That's their best chance.

Consider: In 2004, the Bucs went 2-4 against their division. In 2005, they went 5-1. They beat Atlanta twice, and Atlanta fell from 11 victories to eight. They beat New Orleans twice, and the Saints fell from eight wins to three.

Last year, and it might sting to remember, the Bucs were 0-6 in their division. If they want a leg up in the standings, that's a good place to start.

Look around. The Falcons seem to be a bit of a mess these days. Either they are going to lose their quarterback or their season is going to turn into a circus. Yeah, the Bucs ought to have a better season than the Falcons.

Carolina? If Jake Delhomme doesn't play better, the Panthers can be had. On paper, they're better than the Bucs - but not by much.

New Orleans? The Saints are tougher, and they're a fashionable Super Bowl pick. Still, the Saints aren't a good enough defensive team to make anyone surrender.

As for Tampa Bay? To win, the Bucs need an awful lot of things to go right. From Garcia. From Williams. From Brooks and Barber and Rice and Adams and Galloway and Clayton and Petitgout and June and Kelly and Hovan. From a few other names, too.

If I were a Glazer, I would want to see how Gruden juggled all of the moving parts. I would want to see how much improvement there was from a year ago. I would want to see if young players were progressing or backsliding.

More than anything, I would want to see the Bucs in a playoff race.

Or else.

Gary Shelton can be reached at (727) 893-8805.

[Last modified July 24, 2007, 01:08:22]