Business: No. 1 spot to buy a house? Try Tampa Bay

The online edition of Forbes magazine, with help from business prognosticator Moody's Economy.com, touts the Tampa Bay area as the No. 1 place in the country to buy a house.

Hear them out: Because of our area's overall strong, growing economy and comparably modest housing prices, Forbes calls Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater a prime bounce-back market.

It predicts our area will experience what it calls a V-shaped recovery, where a market experiences a free fall, but rebounds strongly once it hits bottom.

Other regions will chart U-shaped or L-shaped courses. U-shaped recoveries are those in which prices fall slowly and recover gradually. Think Boston and Sacramento.

The L-shaped phenomenon is when prices plummet but remain mostly in a trough owing to underlying economic problems in the city. Think Detroit.

"While the Tampa market has yet to bottom out, the silver lining for buyers is that it is a highly resilient market," the article says.

"Most of the fallout in Tampa can be attributed to its high investor share, which is correctable given the good economic and job-growth projections."

To get on Forbes' top 10 list, a region needed an oversupply of real estate with plenty of sellers keen to strike a bargain. That's not all, though. Forbes also sought areas where prices wouldn't fall cataclysmically, so that buyers wouldn't be booking a fare on a sinking ship.

Based on Moody's figures, Tampa Bay home prices should bottom out in the first quarter of 2008, once the region burns off excess inventory from speculators who went hog wild in 2005.

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Comments on this article

by John	02/04/08 02:45 PM
With the passing of Florida's admendment 1 it might just happen.

by dk	02/02/08 09:15 PM
Yeah, right. Reprint this recycled article after first quarter 08 and we can all have a good laugh at these brilliant lying prognosticators.

by Chris	02/02/08 07:42 PM
Wages are too low to make homes affordable... Homes need to drop another 40% to be "affordable" with Tampa Bays poor wages. Wake up. Prices are going down, down, down. More homes on market and nobody can buy them.

by SteveZ	02/02/08 12:11 PM
The Community that gives you the Gulfò026 GULF HARBORS/ GULF LANDINGS is a well established "master planned" boating community with direct deep water access to Florida's Gulf of Mexico. Located in W. Pasco Co./ New Port Richey, GULF HARBORS 34652_net

by Wally	02/02/08 10:37 AM
THE RECOVERY BEGINS WHEN GOVERNMENT CUTS SPENDING AND TAXES DECREASE FOR EVERYONE. AND JUST WHEN WILL THAT HAPPEN??? MAYBE NEVER !!!

by Paul	02/01/08 05:57 PM
What about LOW wages compared to cost of living? Hmmm... T-Bay Okay if one brings money from outside.

by Billy Bob	02/01/08 11:51 AM
That's cute, some genius journalist at Forbes has put a new label on us "V-Shaped Recovery". I've got a "T-I Reality Check"."Taxes and Insurance". It's still monthly payment that counts and local wages are too low. Forbes, mag and man, are losers

by Jake	02/01/08 09:10 AM
Let's see a relatively new 3000 square foot house with heated pool, on high ground, but biking distance from the beach -- for 500,000. Overpriced? You have to be kidding.

by richard	01/31/08 04:51 PM
How ironic is this ? An artical in your paper today suggest that there will be about 2,500 foreclosures this month between hillsborough and pinellas counties--Clerks of the courts.I am in the market to buy(since last year)but not until a correction.

by Holly	01/31/08 01:29 PM
I am single, make low 40s and there is NO WAY I could afford a home here. You're looking at least 150k for something half-decent and at least 1k sq ft. Forget it, I'll rent.

by Eric	01/31/08 09:13 AM
Not a chance. The pay in Tampa Bay isn't sufficient to make homes affordable, even considering the current market crash. Media homes are still x4-x6 median income.

by Grumpy	01/31/08 09:10 AM
CAN'T YOU FOLKS SEE THIS IS OLD NEWS PRINTED IN FORBES OVER 6 MONTHS AGO. THINGS DO CHANGE AND THEY SURE HAVE HERE. THE VALUE OF OUR HOME HAS DROPPED OVER 20 PERCENT AND INSURANCE HAS GONE UP 40 PERCENT AFTER BEING DROPPED BY ALLSTATE. PARADISE?? NO

by John	01/31/08 08:37 AM
Ha! What a joke, V shaped this, L shaped that, I wish I got paid to get drunk and write articles. The rule of 2.8 applies, there will be no recovery in housing prices until the average wage goes up.

by Phil	01/31/08 03:11 AM
Tampa bay's not nearly close to the bottom. Homes are so over priced everywhere. Good luck with a bottom in 2008, try 2010, maybe!

by Incredulous	01/30/08 11:49 PM
Joe, you are a funny joker. Investment, yeah right. If someone gives you a $200K-$500K home to rent out you will lose money each month paying bills over rent coming in. A major correction is underway. Good luck with your "investing".

by mickee	01/30/08 08:32 PM
Forbes, articles like this are eroding your already incompetent surveys.Where and who are you getting this erroniuos information?

by Shannon	01/30/08 06:44 PM
Companies don't pay well in Tampa. The largest financial firm in town barely pays a living wage to new hires with degrees. You can't buy what you can't afford. Wages in Tampa are pathetic.

by Bill	01/30/08 06:33 PM
"good economic and job-growth projections" Jobs that pay $8.50 an hour count?

by voxy	01/30/08 02:22 PM
I swear to god sometimes I laugh so hard at the MSM. up down all around. thanks for the laughs.

by Richard	01/29/08 11:41 PM
Forbes got it right. I've been a REALTOR in Fl for 45 years and I've seen them come and go.

by Need Work	01/29/08 10:59 PM
Ok, so where are those jobs? (jobs that pay a living wage?)

by Barry	01/29/08 03:41 PM
Orlando, FL should be on this list

by RICK	01/29/08 02:26 PM
Its going to take a long time to burn off excess inventory, years not months.Prices are still way to high the medium house price and the medium wage don't reflect each other there is still a wide gap.Also the economy is starting to get soft.

by taylor	01/29/08 12:47 PM
utterly ridiculous (as usual for forbes).

by Jason	01/29/08 12:02 PM
This Forbes story was written several months ago, before things went from bad to worse. Not exactly responsible journalism.

by Joshu Jones	01/29/08 11:25 AM
Gee Nick, I guess you missed the part about the whole problem being caused by investors.

by colleen	01/29/08 11:04 AM
I sold my house 14 mon. later, lost 75k I was just trying to retire.not a flipper. will the government bail me out I'll take 75k. home ins. ran me out of the state.

by Nick	01/29/08 10:23 AM
I bet they don't know how the State is about to screw all first time and new to the state home buyers

by Scott	01/29/08 09:58 AM
If I hadn't purchased my home 8 years ago before the boom, this area would be last on my list as a place to relocate. For one thing the local economy is bad. The school system can't get much worse. This article is pure hype.

by Robert	01/29/08 08:46 AM
Are these the same analysts that said in 2005 that it would be a "soft landing" and prices would never decline?

by Joe	01/29/08 08:22 AM
I agree we are nearing a bounce back. Those of you who disagree and blame taxes, insurance, corrupt local govt - yes, but you're missing a key point that many investors are waiting in the wings to buy...I am one of them.

by Don	01/29/08 08:13 AM
ETRADE stock is going to FLY up in price soon. Buy all you can now or regret in the next month

by Debbie	01/29/08 08:02 AM
Ha ha ha! If you believe this article you are a fool. I can do the math too; the number of homes on the market far exceeds the number of buyers and will for years. And Flip, - I am neither ignorant nor uneducated - you meant "herd", not "heard".

by Jack	01/29/08 06:16 AM
As an investor, Tampa is my number one spot to start looking at deals. Forbes is right on. I have traveled many places and Tampa Bay is the most attractive outside of San Diego. Great potential and great deals to be found.

by Russ	01/29/08 02:07 AM
High cost of living? Tampa Bay? No way. It's comparitively more expense for seniors because they don't work. If you work... 90% of other states take State Income Tax. FL doesn't.

No. 1 spot to buy a house? Try Tampa Bay

That's according to Forbes magazine, which sees us bouncing back big.