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Letter to the editor

Unmanned drones likely to miss Dean

By WES ALLISON, Times Staff Writer
Published August 18, 2007

The Naitonal Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration sent an unmanned drone into Tropical Storm Ophelia in 2005.
	[Aerosonde]

SILVER SPRING, Md. - Storm researchers to Hurricane Dean: Slow down.

Government scientists are scrambling to send their first unmanned, remote-controlled aircraft into the eye of a hurricane in hopes of collecting ground-breaking data from where the storm meets the sea.

Two Aerosonde drones are awaiting launch next week from the Naval Air Station in Key West, provided the eye of Dean doesn't stray too far, too fast once it plows into the Yucatan peninsula, its projected target.

Officials had hoped to have the drones ready by Monday, but there were delays in testing.

"The intent is to fly very close to the eye wall," said Dr. Richard Spinrad, assistant administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's research office in suburban Washington. "The goal is to get the full three-dimensional characteristics of the storm over time."

If the data the drones collect proves accurate, the National Hurricane Center in Miami may begin incorporating the findings into its hurricane models.

While the National Hurricane Center has proven adept at predicting the track of hurricanes, its ability to predict sudden changes in intensity has lagged, largely because of a dearth of information about the structure of eye walls and the conditions at the ocean's surface.

Traditional hurricane hunter aircraft can fly no lower than 3,000 feet above sea level when they survey a storm. But the drone can fly under 1,000 feet, the zone between wind and wave that would be much too dangerous for a plane.

Scientists believe the Aerosonde's ability to measure water temperature, humidity, pressure and wind speed will help forecasters fill those data gaps. And unlike manned aircraft, the drones also can stay aloft for about 18 hours. Using a pair of them could provide continuous monitoring of hurricanes.

But first scientists need to try it. NASA and NOAA sent an earlier version of the Aerosonde into Tropical Storm Ophelia two years ago, and it collected reliable measurements.

But that storm was much weaker than a hurricane, and the drones only skirted its edges, Spinrad said.

Joe Cione, a NOAA research meteorologist who is running the project from Key West with scientists from NASA, said the agency hoped the drones would be ready Monday. The ready date has now been pushed to Aug. 27, and it's likely Dean will be gone by then.

Cione said he's pushing to have the unmanned vehicles ready a couple of days earlier, in case Dean slows after hitting the Yucatan. Otherwise, the researchers must wait for the next one.

"We just need to get us and the hurricane in the right place at the right time," said Peter Turlington, NASA's mission manager.

Wes Allison can be reached at allison@sptimes.com or (202) 463-0577.

STORM TRACKER 

Manufacturer: Aerosonde Pty Ltd. of Australia, and Aerosonde North America, Wallops Island, Va.

Cost: $60,000.

Wingspan: 10 feet.

Weight: 30 pounds.

Range: Up to 1,800 miles.

Speed: Cruises at 50 to 90 mph

Flying time: Up to 30 hours.

Fuel: Premium unleaded gasoline.

Standard instrumentation: Wind speed and direction; temperature; humidity; barometric pressure.

Source: Aerosonde; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

[Last modified August 18, 2007, 01:12:56]