Columns

Best move might be toughest

Joe Maddon will wisely protect his young pitchers.

By JOHN ROMANO
Published August 20, 2007

ADVERTISEMENT [Dirk Shadd | Times] Tampa Bay Devil Rays pitcher Scott Kazmir smiles while unaware that a teammate stuck a bubble on the top of his hat as his team gets a laugh while in the dug out during the ninth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg.

ST. PETERSBURG - Chances are, Scott Kazmir will be angry tonight.

Six shutout innings won't matter because there might not be a seventh. And seven shutout innings wouldn't help because there will not be an eighth. At some point, Kazmir will find out his night has ended sooner than he would prefer.

And, angry or not, it will be the right decision.

Trust me, the circumstances will not matter. It could be a scoreless game in the seventh, and the decision will be sound. He could come out with a high pitch count in the fifth, and it will be the smart thing to do.

It's okay if Kazmir is miffed - that is a competitor's right. And it's fine if Devil Rays fans are annoyed, for that passion is good to see. But getting the 48th win in another forgotten season is not even close to being the most important factor of the evening.

"We could take our chances with high pitch counts now and then pay for it two years from now when it really means something," manager Joe Maddon said. "The easier decision would be to let him go back out and pitch. That is a much easier decision; that appeases everybody. But I refuse to take that easy way out."

Of all the criticisms leveled in this dreary summer march, none has been louder than fans complaining about Maddon's quick hook. He is too protective of Kazmir and James Shields, they say. He is too cognizant of pitch counts, they complain. It happened again Sunday when Maddon pulled Shields after six innings and 103 pitches against the Indians.

But let me ask you this:

Who would be the fool if Kazmir or Shields blew out an elbow on the 115th pitch of a meaningless game in a phony-baloney season?

It happens more often than you realize. Mark Prior won 18 games and threw 211 innings at age 22 in 2003 and has not been the same pitcher since. A decade earlier, Dave Fleming threw 228 innings and won 17 games at age 22, and his big-league career was done by 25. In the 1980s, it was Britt Burns. In the 1970s, it was Mark Fidrych.

In between, you could add Storm Davis, Steve Avery, Jaret Wright, Matt Morris, Wade Miller and dozens of others. The gurneys are filled with promising pitchers who lost their careers after blowing out their arms at a young age.

"Every team would like to have those two guys to build around at the age they are," Maddon said. "Being the steward of those two right now, I take that responsibility very seriously. It's about their future, it's about the guys in the dugout, it's about the people in the front office, it involves everybody's future that we do right by these two young guys."

If you are paying attention, you know the Rays are not treating Kazmir like a baby. For much of the season, he has led the American League in pitches thrown, which is not what you want from a 23-year-old who had a sore shoulder last year.

If you check the list of pitchers with the heaviest workloads this season, they all seem to be from 26 to 30. Kazmir is, by far, the youngest among the top 13.

The Rays have done some research on this and have discovered young pitchers who have a dramatic increase in workload are much more likely to break down in their mid 20s. It could be an elbow, it could be a shoulder. It could also be a disaster.

It is not an exact science, but the Rays are working from a general guide. A pitcher's workload should not increase more than 20 percent from one year to the next. The idea is you are gradually building arm strength until the pitcher is accustomed to throwing in the 200- to 220-inning range every season.

Naturally, there are variations. Kazmir, for example, missed almost two months last season, so his numbers are skewed. He will exceed last year's pitch totals by more than 20 percent, but the plan is to not let it get out of hand.

Some would argue that the Rays are doing a disservice to the pitchers and the team by lowering expectations, and it is a legitimate point. Yes, a pitcher does need to learn how to make it past six or seven innings - but not at the risk of his health. And, yes, a team does need to learn to win more games - but not at the expense of the 2009 roster.

It would be irresponsible of the Rays to take unnecessary risks to win a few more games in a last-place season, when there is potential of ruining their hopes in the seasons beyond.

You want to know why the Rays are in the midst of their 10th losing season? Because they didn't have enough long-range planners 10 years ago. The previous ownership was so intent on driving up attendance, it continually deviated from script.

It signed too many older players. It rushed too many younger players. It was so obsessed with winning 70 games, it never figured out how to win 90.

That's why you shouldn't get too caught up with Kazmir going for his 10th win tonight.

Not when you consider he might be going for 20 in 2009.

John Romano can be reached at romano@sptimes.com or 727 893-8811.

[Last modified August 19, 2007, 23:03:41]