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Politics

Support for plan to cut taxes erodes

A poll finds nearly third of voters are undecided.

By ALEX LEARY
Published September 12, 2007

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TALLAHASSEE - Steady cries from cities and counties over planned property tax cuts are eating into support for a proposed constitutional amendment granting large homestead exemptions, a statewide poll shows.

Since the last survey in July, the level of support for the so-called super homestead exemption has dropped 10 points, to 47 percent. To be approved, the amendment would need to gain the support of 60 percent of voters.

Still, the vote is four and a half months away, and almost a third of the electorate remains undecided.

Meanwhile Tuesday, a judge heard competing arguments in a challenge to the legality of the amendment. The mayor of a small city in Broward County wants the referendum thrown out on the basis that the ballot language is misleading. The judge said he will issue a ruling within 10 days.

If anything, the latest poll results released Tuesday show how much uncertainty surrounds the tax plan. Thirty-one percent of those surveyed remain undecided on how they will vote. Almost two-thirds say they need "a lot more" explanation of the details. Only 5 percent say those details have been clearly explained.

Both sides are in the early stages of trying to sway those voters. So far, the opponents are demonstrating success, partly by arguing how the cuts will hurt services.

The poll of 1,141 registered voters was taken Sept. 3-9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. It shows 27 percent think a valid argument against the plan is that it will hurt the ability of local governments to provide services. That is up 6 percent from July.

Some accuse governments of fear tactics, by cutting back on library hours and other highly visible services as part of tax cuts already ordered by the Legislature. But passage of the amendment would force city and county leaders to cut billions more.

"The opponents have had a good month," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the independent Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, which does surveys in Florida, New York, Ohio and other states and provides results to news outlets at no cost as part of the school's research mission."The proponents need to get working."

But the fight, Brown noted, is not over.

That's because of the large number of people who remain undecided. If only half decide to back the amendment on Jan. 29, then it will pass.

Brown said one man has the ability to lift those numbers: Gov. Charlie Crist, whose approval rating slipped somewhat in the poll, to 65 percent but remains notably high.

"But obviously he has to invest time and effort into it if he wants this to pass," Brown said. "He probably needs to get out front on it and not just say I'm for it."

Crist said Tuesday that he will advocate for the passage but was not specific on what he would do.

"I think it sells itself," he told reporters. "Who doesn't want a property tax cut in Florida? All we have to do is frame it right."

Voters on Jan. 29 will be asked to replace the current $25,000 homestead exemption with a percentage-based system that would knock off up to $195,000 on the first $500,000 of property value.

If the exemption is approved, existing owners of homesteaded homes would have to make a one-time, irrevocable choice whether to take the new exemption or stick with the 3 percent cap on annual property assessments known as Save Our Homes.

House Speaker Marco Rubio, R-Miami, had planned to appear today with major business groups to begin a formal push for the plan but scheduling problems put the meeting off until next week.

"We still have a lot of education to do," said Barney Bishop, head of Associated Industries of Florida.

Super homestead exemption poll

For: 47%

Against: 22%

Undecided: 31%

*Quinnipiac Polling Institute survey of 1,141 voters taken Sept. 3-9. Margin of error +/- 2.9%.

 

[Last modified September 12, 2007, 10:14:41]

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