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White House: U.S. cocaine supplies decline while prices soar

Though law enforcement is given credit, the dollar's drop could also be affecting drug prices.

By DAVID ADAMS, Times Latin America Correspondent
Published October 3, 2007

The White House is claiming a "historic" breakthrough in the drug war, citing "an unprecedented decline" in U.S. cocaine supplies and sharp increases in prices for the drug.

The average price of a gram of cocaine on U.S. streets rose 24 percent from January to June to $118.70, its highest level in at least five years, according to figures announced Tuesday by the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy.

That was accompanied by an 11 percent drop in cocaine purity in the same period, as well as a 16 percent decline in positive drug tests at workplaces.

But drug war skeptics question the government's claims.

"Long term demand for cocaine has not altered," said John Carnevale, a former planning director in White House drug policy office. "These price increases are a fluctuating thing. We have never seen any long term effect on price increase."

The release of the new drug figures came as the White House says it is preparing to announce a $1-billion aid package to help Mexico fight drug cartels, described as the largest U.S. overseas antidrug program since the 2000 launch of Plan Colombia.

"For too long, drug-related violence, addiction, crime and corruption have taken a toll on citizens living on both sides of the ... border," said John Walters, the White House drug czar.

Officials say a military offensive against drug gangs launched by Mexico's President Felipe Calderon is disrupting Mexican smugglers crossing the border. Calderon has deployed some 25,000 army troops to crack down on drug gangs since he took office last December.

While experts say the flow of drugs may indeed have been reduced in recent months, it is unlikely to stay that way for long.

"These are short term successes, isolated battle victories in the endless war on drugs," said Bruce Bagley, a drug policy expert at the University of Miami.

Colombian and Mexican drug lords are notoriously adaptable and can switch routes and transportation methods, say analysts. Besides moving drugs via Central America and Mexico, traffickers have traditionally smuggled their drug loads by boat and plane using Caribbean routes from South America into the United States, as well as to Europe and increasingly to Africa.

While the White House credited U.S. and Mexican law enforcement agencies for the drop in drug availability, experts suggest it may have as much to do with the falling value of the dollar against the euro.

"Drug traffickers are not in the business of addicting Americans," said Sanho Tree, director of the Drug Policy project at the Institute for Policy Studies. "They are in the business of making as much money as they can. Right now the money is in Europe."

Pressure from law enforcement may have intensified, but a truce between Mexican drug gangs may be responsible for the decline in violence that has claimed 2,000 lives this year.

Bagley predicted the flow of drugs likely will resume in the coming months, with major cartels breaking up into smaller, harder to catch criminal groups, or cartelitos.

"It will come roaring back," he said, "with cartelitos proliferating everywhere across Mexico, but adopting a lower profile."

Sentencing fairness questioned

The Supreme Court heard a pair of drug cases that call into question sentencing disparities for similar cases. The court will decide if a law that calls for tougher punishment for possession and distribution of crack cocaine than the powdered variety is fair. The disparity has a strong racial dimension because the vast majority of crack offenders are black.

The other question being considered challenges a judge's discretion to go outside established guidelines when sentencing.

The cases, Kimbrough vs. U.S. and Gall vs. U.S., will be decided by spring.

[Last modified October 3, 2007, 01:26:16]