2007 Preview

Plenty of questions still surround Lightning

By GARY SHELTON
Published October 4, 2007

ADVERTISEMENT [Dirk Shadd | Times] Johan Holmqvist comes off his first full NHL season in which he exceeded the Lightning's expectations and supplanted Marc Denis at the No. 1 goaltender.

Vinny Lecavalier will score a few fewer goals.

Brad Richards will score a lot more points.

Marty St. Louis will score the team's first goal of the playoffs.

Some things are easy to predict. Some things you can count on. Some things you can see clearly in the distance.

When it comes to the question you most want answered about Tampa Bay, however, the future remains murky. There is smoke, and there is mist. Whether there is a second round to the playoffs, we'll see.

Dan Boyle will be back sooner than you expect.

Brad Lukowich will be better than you remember.

John Tortorella will be louder than human ears were designed to endure.

Ah, but how does the story end? That's what you want to know, isn't it? You want to know if the Lightning, once again, will have to claw its way into the bottom seeds of the postseason. You want to know if it will live past a single series. You want to know if another season will end with the nagging feeling of underachievement.

That's the problem with a mystery. The temptation is to flip through the pages until the final chapter just so you can be certain that things turn out right this time.

Perhaps it should not be that way. When it comes to the Lightning, perhaps we should all be more high-minded. This is such a talented team, a spinning, swirling highlight reel on ice, that we should enjoy the ride. Tampa Bay has never seen a franchise, in any sport, that had the offensive firepower of a team with St. Louis, Lecavalier and Richards. Perhaps we should not take reaching the playoffs so much for granted.

That said, shouldn't a team with as much talent as the Lightning make a little hay in the postseason?

And if not, why not?

Michel Ouellet, in his first year with the Lightning, will score 24 goals.

Chris Gratton, in his third stint with the Lightning, will add some toughness in front of the net.

Doug MacLean, still waiting to sign the deed, will set a record for attendance by an owner in the first week of the season.

If any franchise should know there is nothing wrong with high expectations, it is the Lightning, which went for years without having any at all.

That won't change with this season, either. When a new ownership group is waiting in the foyer, everyone is on trial. It is safe to say that getting a little deeper into the playoffs is a good place to start. Also, to finish.

To that end, it's easy to like some of the things Tampa Bay achieved in the offseason. Ouellet could be the finisher that Richards lacked last year on the Lightning's second line. Lukowich is a good pickup for a defense that promises to make opponents notice it. You could make an argument that the offense has been improved, the defense has been improved and, with the addition of Mike Sullivan, the coaching staff has been improved.

But, um, what about the goaltender?

With the Lightning, that's always the burning question, isn't it? Tampa Bay was fortunate that Johan Holmqvist was more than the franchise expected last year. If there will be significant improvement this year, then it has to start with significant improvement out of Holmqvist.

Honestly, what more can you expect out of the offense? There was a case to be made for Lecavalier as MVP last year, and St. Louis wasn't far behind.

True, it is going to be difficult for Lecavalier to increase the 52 goals he scored last year. Still, somewhere in the mid 40s seems about right. You can say the same about St. Louis.

On the other hand, did we mention the goaltending?

Odd, but perhaps we shouldn't be talking so much about the way the Lightning will finish. Perhaps we should worry more about the way this team starts.

So far, the most overworked man of the preseason has been the team trainer. Boyle, a defenseman the Lightning considers to be an All-Star, is out for a month or so after severing tendons in his wrist when a skate dropped on him. Gratton has been hurt. Ouellet has been hurt. Ryan Craig has been hurt.

Does all of that suggest the Lightning might get off to a slow start? Especially when you consider the team's first six games (and 12 of the first 15) are against teams that won their last meeting over Tampa Bay.

Now consider this: In the two seasons in which the Lightning won playoff series, 2002-03 and 2003-04, it was terrific at the start. In both seasons, the Lightning squeezed 16 points out of the season's first 10 games. Both seasons seemed to set a tone. The last two years (10 points last year, 11 the year before), not so much.

Can this team be better? Yes. If Holmqvist matures. If Marc Denis is much, much better. If the defense is tougher. If the offense is deeper. If the team stays healthy.

Holmqvist wins 33 games.

Denis wins 20.

And what the heck, the Lightning is seeded sixth and beats the Devils in the first round of the playoffs.

- Gary Shelton can be reached at (727) 893-8805.

[Last modified October 3, 2007, 10:50:56]