Deaths in Iraq show a decline
The U.S. troop increase and Iraqis' rejection of insurgents are cited by the military.
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published October 24, 2007
BAGHDAD - October is on course to record the second consecutive decline in U.S. military and Iraqi civilian deaths, and Americans commanders say they know why: the U.S. troop increase and an Iraqi groundswell against al-Qaida and Shiite militia extremists.
Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, who commands the 3rd Infantry Division, points to what the military calls "concerned citizens" - both Shiites and Sunnis who have joined the American fight. He says he has signed up 20,000 of them in the past four months.
"I've never been more optimistic than I am right now with the progress we've made in Iraq," Lynch said in a recent interview at a U.S. base deep in hostile territory south of Baghdad.
As of Tuesday, the Pentagon reported 28 U.S. military deaths in October. That's an average of about 1.2 deaths a day. The toll on U.S troops hasn't been this low since March 2006, when 31 soldiers died - an average of one death a day.
In September, 65 U.S. soldiers died in Iraq.
While U.S. death figures appear to be in sharp decline, the number of Iraqi civilians and security forces show a less dramatic drop. And any significant attack - by insurgents or civilians caught in the crossfire - could quickly wipe out the downward trend.
The current pace of civilian deaths would put October at less than 900. The figure last month was 1,023 and for August, 1,956, according to figures compiled by the Associated Press.
The AP tally is compiled from hospital, police and military officials, as well as accounts from reporters and photographers. Insurgent deaths are not included. Other counts have given higher civilian death tolls.
While the decline in deaths is notable, it is only one of many measures of potential progress in Iraq, said Anthony Cordesman, a former Pentagon analyst now with the private Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Cordesman said a more balanced picture needs to include factors such as wounded civilians and soldiers and the number of people fleeing their homes. The U.N. refugee agency said Tuesday that between 1,000 and 2,000 Iraqis still leave their homes each day for havens in Iraq or neighboring nations. "It's just been going up slowly," said Astrid van Genderen Stort, a spokeswoman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.
"The numbers we're dealing with here are only major acts of violence, the number of times people are killed," Cordesman said. It'sprogress, he said, "but it has to be put in perspective."