Politics

Open GOP contest may hinge on Fla.

Two dozen states will likely take their cues from the nation's microcosm when they vote later.

By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
Published October 26, 2007

A Quinnipiac University puts former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani firmly in the lead, with the support of 30 percent of Florida Republicans.
	[Dirk Shadd | Times]

ADVERTISEMENT [AP photo] JOHN MCCAIN: A poll released Thursday shows that the Arizona senator has gained 6 percentage points in Florida in two weeks. [AP photo] FRED THOMPSON: The former Tennessee senator's campaign has been shaky, but he says "things can change within a matter of days." [AP photo] MITT ROMNEY: The former Massachusetts governor hopes to win the early primaries and ride a wave of momentum into Florida.

Forget about the Democratic presidential candidates blowing off Florida's Jan. 29 primary. Florida is ground zero for the leading Republicans vying for the presidential nomination.

While some of the Republican contenders have been selective about which early primary states to focus on, every top candidate is trying hard to win Florida.

The big question thirteen weeks before Sunshine State Republicans make their choice boils down to this: Can anyone halt Rudy Giuliani's march to the nomination?

We'll get the answer in Florida.

"If you wanted to go to Vegas and bet on who the Republican nominee will be and could magically know the answer based on one state, you would pick Florida," said Mark Halperin, political analyst for Time magazine and ABC News and author of the new book, The Undecided Voter's Guide to the Next President.

That's because Florida will be the first presidential contest in a field that offers a true microcosm of America, a diverse, mega swing state where none of the Republicans will be able to say they didn't compete hard. What Florida voters say Jan. 29 is likely to dramatically influence what happens when two dozen states vote a week later, on "Tsunami Tuesday," Feb. 5, and probably decide the nomination.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday showed former New York Mayor Giuliani maintaining his lead among Florida Republicans, with 30 percent support compared to 14 percent for Fred Thompson and John McCain and 12 percent for Mitt Romney.

Without an incumbent or clear GOP establishment favorite, this is the most volatile and unpredictable presidential primary Republicans have seen in decades. Even after the early primaries in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan, many observers say two or three candidates will still be competing when Florida voters go to the polls.

Who will those survivors be? At this point the surest bets look like Giuliani, who is virtually launching his campaign from Florida, and former Massachusetts Gov. Romney, who hopes to win the early primaries and ride a wave of momentum into Florida and knock off Giuliani in his top-priority state.

"Giuliani has to win Florida or he's dead," said Sally Bradshaw, a senior Romney adviser and longtime strategist for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. "He's the 800-pound gorilla."

Early this year, conventional wisdom was that Giuliani, as a longtime supporter of abortion rights and gay rights, was doomed in a primary dominated by conservative voters. But he has led the national polls month after month, turned in strong debate and fundraising performances, and solidified his position as the candidate to beat.

"The premise that once people find out he's prochoice they're going to leave is just not true," said Mike DuHaime, Giuliani's national campaign manager. "Since Sept. 11, we haven't had a Republican presidential primary. The issues are very different across the board for all voters. People are looking for leadership in a big way, and there are fewer single-issue voters than many people think."

Despite Romney's own background as a moderate - he once supported abortion and gay rights - he is trying to cast himself as the conservative alternative to Giuliani. Complicating that effort is Thompson, who has had a rocky start since entering the race but still remains a big force in Florida and nationally.

Thompson, a former senator for Tennessee, has several veteran Florida operatives and hopes a strong showing in South Carolina will carry him into Florida where, according to a tally by political Web site the Hotline, he has spent more time campaigning than any other state.

"This race has been so perplexing that I'm not willing to dismiss anything or anyone, but I will say Fred Thompson has underperformed significantly more than any of us Romney optimists ever thought he would," said former state Republican Party chairman Al Cardenas, co-chairman of Romney's Florida campaign. "I think the time frame for getting one on one with Rudy Giuliani is going to come along sooner than anyone expected."

The shakiness of Thompson's position was on display again Thursday. Two days after the former Law & Order actor made a campaign appearance with Collier County Sheriff Don Hunter, the sheriff threw his endorsement to Romney.

Asked about where he stands in the race, Thompson was dismissive: "President Howard Dean can tell you that things can change within a matter of days," he said Monday in Tampa, referring to the former Democratic presidential front-runner's meltdown in 2004.

It's anybody's election

John Stemberger, leader of the Florida Family Policy Council, worries social conservatives could wind up saddled with Giuliani as the nominee because there's no consensus on whether Romney or Thompson is the best alternative. Meanwhile, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a Baptist minister, doesn't look like a real contender.

"For conservatives we're kind of in a complex chess match, and we're one move away from being in checkmate," he lamented. "Romney is the front-runner to take on Giuliani right now, but I think Thompson has the best chance of overtaking Giuliani."

Florida's primary inevitably will be shaped by what happens in the earlier contests. Early state polls show Romney winning or competitive in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan. But almost nobody can be written off.

Arizona Sen. John McCain, for instance, is lately gaining ground in some polls, especially in New Hampshire. Quinnipiac's Florida poll released Thursday showed McCain had gained 6 percentage points in two weeks, while Thompson and Romney dropped 5. Romney's campaign had temporarily halted TV ads in the Tampa Bay area and other markets.

McCain is nearly invisible in Florida because he has little money, but national campaign manager Rick Davis said momentum from early success can overcome that.

"Florida becomes a momentum state where you lock in the nomination. It's almost too big to spend money in. Nobody, even Mitt, has got enough resources to say, 'I can beat the momentum,'" Davis said.

"The competition (in Florida) is Rudy, and he has to show he can win something early before Florida, and I don't know where he's going to do that," Davis said.

In a state where Charlie Crist spent roughly $20-million to win the Republican gubernatorial nomination, money matters a lot. Giuliani had nearly $11.5-million on hand to spend as of Oct. 1. Romney had $9.2-million and has already pumped more than $17-million of his personal fortune into the race.

Times staff writer John Frank contributed to this report. Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8241.

[Last modified October 26, 2007, 11:41:35]