The toast, roast of the parties

By ADAM C. SMITH Times Political Editor
Published October 28, 2007

ORLANDO - People often ask incredulously whether Hillary Clinton can really win the general election with her polarizing image. Given the damage to the Republican brand these days, my assumption has been yes, she can.

Leaving the Florida's Republican Party's "Presidency IV" convention last weekend I wondered about that. In two days with thousands of hardcore party activists, I heard only two words that revved up the surprisingly subdued crowd: Hillary Clinton.

State Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer exhorted the crowd to unite behind the eventual nominee: "If not, ladies and gentlemen, we shall watch Hillary Rodham Clinton sworn in on the Capitol steps as the next commander in chief of our United States armed forces."

He might as well have said Osama bin Laden would raise his right hand and put his other on a Bible, the roars of disapproval were so loud. Nothing guaranteed a crowd reaction for presidential contenders and other speakers better than invoking the name of New York's junior senator.

So I'm flummoxed on this question of Clinton's electability.

Most polls show at least 40 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of the former First Lady. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll last week found that among independent voters, a crucial voting block, 42 percent gave Clinton favorable marks and 46 percent unfavorable.

Elizabeth Edwards last spring made a valid if self-serving point about Clinton potentially being the best thing Republicans have going for them this year: "Their nominee won't energize them, Bush won't, but Hillary as the nominee will," she said of Republicans.

True enough. But I still wonder if Clinton isn't the Democrats' best shot at winning the White House.

There's a reason she's keep widening her lead over her Democratic rivals. She is smart, she is tough, and her team knows how to win.

In fact, she's already beating all Republican comers in a number of national polls, while in Florida she and Rudy Giuliani are neck and neck.

They won't necessarily play by Marquess of Queensbury rules like Barack Obama and his hopeful "new kind of politics." Nor will she be knocked to the ground easily.

Take a poke at Clinton, and you can count on her team pummelling you in response. Appealing? Not really. Effective? You bet.

I saw her a couple weeks ago in Derry, N.H., respond with empathy and remarkable depth to a woman whose child had recently been diagnosed with Asperger's syndrome. I'm not sold yet on that ice queen caricature of Clinton.

There's at least some evidence that Clinton is changing people's perceptions about her. In April Gallup found 45 percent of voters had a favorable view of her and 52 percent unfavorable. By October, that had flipped to 53 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable.

Sure, her constant caution and calibration on everything from Iran to shoring up Social Security is maddening to many people. But like it or not, that doesn't necessarily make it bad politics.

A candidate who has had to return more than $850,000 tied to an accused scam artist clearly is someone capaple of making mistakes in her campaign. The problem for Clinton is that with such high unfavorable ratings, she has little margin for error come the general election.

Based on some of the headlines last week, though, it might be more appropriate to question whether Obama, her closest rival, is electable, than Clinton.

In Nevada, the Obama campaign heralded an endorsement from boxer Floyd Mayweather Jr., only to backpedal amid revelations that he had a history of battery and domestic battery arrests. In South Carolina, the campaign ignited a firestorm among influential gay rights activists when it organized gospel performances featuring a singer who has labelled homosexuality a curse.

If a presidential candidate can inflict such avoidable wounds on himself, how's he going to stand up when the real heat comes in the general election?

Clinton may indeed motivate Republicans like no other candidate. That doesn't necessarily make her weak. Or beatable.

Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com or 727893-8241.

[Last modified October 27, 2007, 20:23:43]