News

Spared again (so far), despite hurricane hoopla

By MIKE DONILA, Times Staff Writer
Published November 1, 2007

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Hurricane season is almost over, and for the second year in a row Florida has been spared.

So far, anyway.

Even if a hurricane hits Florida before the season ends Nov. 30, this year has been a dramatic turnaround from the frenzied 2004 and 2005 storm seasons.

Here's a look at what's going on, what happened and what to expect.

What did the experts predict for this year?

The National Hurricane Center predicted 13-17 named storms for the Atlantic Basin, which comprises the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Seven to nine of those storms would strengthen into hurricanes, three to five of which would become major hurricanes (111 mph or more).

What actually happened?

So far, 14 tropical storms and four hurricanes have formed. Felix and Dean were major hurricanes.

Why so quiet this year?

Scientists are still scratching their heads over this one, and some admit they still don't understand some things about storms. Last year was less active because of El Nino, a phenomenon in which upper-level winds hinder the formation of hurricanes and can tear them apart. Some say those winds, also called shear, might have picked up at just the right time in the right place this year. And earlier in the year, a lot of African dust spread across the Atlantic and absorbed warmth in the atmosphere.

So what the heck happened in 2004 and 2005?

Take your pick: global warming or meteorological aberrations. Some scientists say the Atlantic failed to cool those years because of global warming. Others disagree.

When will it all end?

There are two schools of thought. The Atlantic is in what meteorologists are calling an "active era," meaning the area will experience more major storms than possibly ever before. The era, they say, started in 1995, when Atlantic surface temperatures got increasingly higher, and no one is quite sure when it will end. Others believe it's a natural 30- to 40-year cycle, so we've got quite some time before we can relax.

Do hurricanes form in November?

Since scientists started records in 1900, only four hurricanes have formed then in the Atlantic Basin. Unfortunately, all four hit Florida, the most recent in 1985 when Hurricane Kate ravaged the Panhandle.

So, can we put away our safety kits?

Knock on wood, but Florida is probably pretty safe for the rest of the year. Meteorologists say large amounts of wind shear are expected along the east coast, so any storms would have to form in the Caribbean or east of Bermuda. Further, temperatures will continue to drop, not good news for hurricanes.

 

Ups and downs of predicting

Predicting the number of named storms each year is not an exact science. Here is a look comparing the early season forecasts from the National Hurricane Center to how many named storms formed.

Year   NHC   Actual

2007   13-17   14*

2006   13-16   9

2005   12-15   28

2004   12-15   15

2003   11-15   16

2002    9-13   12

2001    8-11   15

2000    11      14

*Season ends Nov. 30.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, Times archives. Research by Angie Drobnic Holan, Caryn Baird and Mike Donila

 

[Last modified October 31, 2007, 23:08:53]