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Drop in violence holds up, but reasons disputed

Deaths of U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians in October are the lowest tolls in a year.

By ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published November 1, 2007

BAGHDAD - A previously reported downward trend in U.S. military and Iraqi civilian deaths in October held throughout the month, according to the Associated Press' end-of-the-month tally.

The AP's figures mirror other reports that the levels of bloodshed are falling. But the meaning of these statistics is disputed, and experts generally agree that the struggle for security and stability is far from over.

The number of Iraqi civilians killed fell from at least 1,023 in September to at least 875 in October, according to the AP count.

That's the lowest monthly toll for civilian casualties in the past year and is down sharply from the 1,216 recorded in October 2006. The numbers are based on daily reports from police, hospital officials, morgue workers and verifiable witness accounts.

The drop in deaths among U.S. military personnel in Iraq was even more striking, according to AP's records - down from 65 in September to at least 36 in October. The October figure is by far the lowest in the last year and is sharply lower than the 106 deaths recorded in October 2006.

The relative period of calm - if that's what it is - came during the Muslim fast of Ramadan, a time when militants have in the past escalated their attacks.

Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former editorial editor of the Wall Street Journal, said the apparent decline in deaths reflected the success of the buildup in Iraq of U.S. military personnel, who now number 170,000.

"I assume it's happening because the surge is working, and working even better than those who advocated it envisioned," said Boot, who was a proponent of expanding the deployment of U.S. troops. "This is pretty dramatic."

But Anthony Cordesman, an expert on the Middle East and military affairs with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the numbers he has seen so far mostly reflect a decline in the level of violence against U.S. troops in Baghdad and Anbar province.

Data collected by the General Accounting Office, he said, don't justify the conclusion that the level of fighting has fallen off, or that the number of civilian deaths is declining, because they don't paint a full picture of the war.

The statistics don't reflect attacks that result in injuries, he pointed out. Nor is there reliable reporting of civilian deaths outside of Baghdad.

The reduction in U.S. losses, he said, is mostly a result of the revolt of the Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar against al-Qaida in Iraq, and not the military buildup.

Developments

Intelligence shared: The U.S. military has started giving more intelligence to Turkey to help it against rebels from the Kurdistan Workers' Party staging cross-border attacks from their hiding places in neighboring Iraq, Defense Department press secretary Geoff Morrell said Wednesday.

U.S. report challenged: The Iraqi government rejected Tuesday's report of the U.S. Office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction that a dam near the northern city of Mosul is on the verge of a collapse that could cause flooding along the Tigris River "all the way to Baghdad." Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said the Mosul Dam was in good condition.

Polish mission to end: Polish Prime Minister-designate Donald Tusk said his government would seek to end the nation's military mission in Iraq next year, according to an interview published Wednesday in the daily Polska.

Times wires

[Last modified November 1, 2007, 00:35:26]