Business: A prime time to buy a house?

"Now is a good time to buy a house!" The Tampa Bay area Realtors who favor this mantra tend to repeat it to me with a mixture of bubbliness and bile.

The bubbliness is a salesperson's talent for talking up a shaky housing market. The bile stems from their belief that the media have been talking down the same market. Is it a good time to buy? Let's start with economists tuned to the housing market:

- Jan Hatzius, economist at Goldman Sachs: Florida homes could depreciate 30 to 40 percent from their peak in 2005-2006. The slide could last two more years in Florida, Hatzius said, though he didn't rate the Tampa market.

- The S&P/Shiller-Case home price index: Last week's report ranked Tampa the worst nationally for home price declines at 10 percent. "The fall in home prices is showing no real signs of a slowdown or turnaround," study director Robert Shiller said.

- Lawrence Yun: As staff economist of the National Association of Realtors, he tends to cultivate rosier assessments. Yet even he predicted several poor months before home sales turn around. He cited banks clamping down on risky mortgage lending.

So is it time to start hunting for bargains? Now is a good time to shop for a house, if not to buy.

Some prices are probably flirting with the bottom: Houses repossessed by the bank. Properties dumped by their overburdened owners. New home builders closing out inventory.

On the other hand, beware of miserable deals offered by sellers trying to spin gold from a leaden market. You see plenty of people trying to flip condos and houses for twice what they paid in 2004. Some would call it a fair exchange. Others would call it profiteering.

Realtors have it right on one point. Holdouts will return to the market. Some will time it right; others will miss it and pay more.

This is spoken by a guy who avoided the stock market after 2002. It could never rise again, could it?

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Comments on this article

by joe	11/09/07 01:30 PM
Is a home equity line of credit a smart way to go on a down payment on a new home???

by John	11/07/07 02:30 PM
Don't forget to add back tax advantage from mortgage deduction plus property tax deduction. Owning may still be wiser than renting.

by Jerry	11/07/07 01:19 PM
For Chris, Curt, Rick, Lee, KD, sendy. Who are you trying to kid? House prices doubled and many more than 100% and now that they've dropped 20% you want to con people into thinking it's a good time to buy. Get a real job. Quit ripping people off.

by John	11/06/07 01:48 PM
Buyers need to seek out people who are selling "For Sale By Owner". Homes are priced without the high 6% fee - why not buy without this. Smart Way to go. I sold mine - no realtor - no problem. Title company handles the deal anyways.

by Karen	11/06/07 09:15 AM
The Realtor apologists all use the same emotion-based argument: "Just buy it, it'll make you happy". That's insanely irresponsible advice, but even more so when the asset being pumped is topping out. Reality? DON'T BUY NOW! It's gonna get much worse!

by sendy	11/05/07 11:15 PM
open your eyes people......don't you see when a bargain is staring at you in the face?

by KD	11/05/07 11:14 PM
If you find a house you like buy it and enjoy it. James Thorner loves to write articles like these for the times. Supports his argument with hand picked articles. I could hand pick articles that show its a good time to buy...

by Dan	11/05/07 07:44 PM
Realtors, stockbrokers, car salesmen.. they're all the same. I know, I've been all 3. Realtors screamed BUY NOW right thru the bubble and into the crash, when wiser folks saw plummeting housing stocks and backlogged inventories as a BIG CLUE to bail.

by SNOWEY	11/05/07 05:27 PM
LAST YEAR I DID NOT BUY A SHARE IN THIS MOBILE HOME PARK. MY NEIGHBOR DID AND HER TAXES ARE $1100.00 MINE ARE $84.OO YR. I HAVE NO SHARE MORTAGE AND SHE DOES SOMETIMES ITS BETTER TO RENT THAN OWN EVEN IF I DO PAY TWICE THE MAIN. FEE MINE WILL SELL

by Bile-buster	11/05/07 01:48 PM
Ignorance must be bliss, James. By it's very definition, a flip takes place in a very short amount of time. I know of no one who is still trying to flip a condo/house purchased in 2004. Write about something you have knowledge of.

by Sandra	11/05/07 01:18 PM
Lisa, Realtor is an old trademark of the National Association of Realtors; hence the capitalization.

by Zwiepak	11/05/07 01:05 PM
hahaha, yeah, and, "...this is such a great car, I have 3 people coming in to look at it today." , "the check is in the mail", "trust me, you can't go wrong", "would I lie to you?", "guaranteed, or your money back!", "below market value!!"

by Lee	11/05/07 01:00 PM
I can't understand why so many people want to blame Realtors. Realtors can only sell at the MARKET PRICE !Buyers are not stupid, except for the speculators. Those are the ones who should be getting the flack ! Not Realtors ! LC

by Lee	11/05/07 12:53 PM
I have been a Realtor for 25 years and although prices people paid in previous years was outrageously high, I find that many people who have been in their homes for some years, are now digging in their heels and simply waiting for the next recovery.

by John	11/05/07 12:24 PM
I could care less if FL is down as long as comparables in my neighborhood keep rising. Glad to see the heat's out of the market - but S. Florida is getting it a lot worse then we ever will. Good scarey article tho - a little late for halloween.

by Rick	11/05/07 12:14 PM
Good point Chris.

by xplodin eyeball	11/05/07 12:03 PM
Don't buy a thing.These guy's are hurting for a sale.If you do buy,grind 'em down to dust.Serves 'em all right to suffer the way that they screw people.

by Jeffrey	11/05/07 10:04 AM
For who?

by Sam	11/05/07 08:52 AM
Of course the Realtors would say this--their commissions are at stake. They, and the real estate tax system, has caused MOST of the problems. Add to that the insurance company CROOKS and its no wonder Florida is the laughing stock in real estate.

by Curt	11/05/07 08:23 AM
Good time to buy bad time to sell. Prices wont rise until the demand is up and the supply is down. Lots of good deals out there.

by John	11/05/07 08:13 AM
Of course the realtors are going to tell you its time to buy its there job. Not me, prices still have a way to go before hitting the bottom. It will be late 2008 or early 2009.

by Chris	11/05/07 08:04 AM
I just purchased a condo in downtown and I think it was a great price. Bottom line, if you find something you love, buy it! Don't try to time the market, you'll end up losing whats most important, a house you'll enjoy coming home to everyday.

by Lisa	11/05/07 06:48 AM
So it's the media's fault the bubble popped? Realtors are BLIND to economics, they just want the sale. Proof/Karma; many believed their own hype and are now underwater in "easy money" properties. And why is Realtor capitalized? Oh, the hubris!

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A prime time to buy a house?

"Now is a good time to buy a house!" The Tampa Bay area Realtors who favor this mantra tend to repeat it to me with a mixture of bubbliness and bile.