What must Gruden do to keep job?

By RICK STROUD, Times Staff Writer
Published November 11, 2007

Jon Gruden leaves the field following the Buccaneers 20-6 loss to the Seahawks at Qwest Field in September.
	[AP photo]

TAMPA

The biggest question facing the Bucs the next seven weeks: Is Jon Gruden's job safe if his team wins the NFC South?

On the surface, it would seem like a slam dunk. Gruden would have two division crowns in three years.

But the Glazers are unpredictable. Remember, they fired Tony Dungy after he went to the playoffs four times in his final five years. And Gruden's regular-season record isn't strong: 44-45 with the Bucs.

Gruden's contract will expire at the end of the 2008 season. To keep him, the Glazers would have to give him at least a one-year extension. And the contracts of many of his assistants will expire at the end of the season.

At 5-4, the Bucs own a half-game lead in the division over the Saints (4-4) and Panthers (4-4). But the footsteps you hear belong to the Saints, who have won four in a row and are playing like the team that fell one game short of the Super Bowl last season.

Fortunately for the Bucs, their remaining opponents have a combined record of 23-43, so they have a great chance to advance to the playoffs. But a wildcard is probably out of the question because the Lions (6-2) and Giants (6-2) are in better position. And the Lions own the tie-breaker thanks to their win over the Bucs.

There's no denying the job Gruden has done this season.

Given the fact that 12 players have been placed on injured reserve and others have been unavailable for several games - Michael Pittman,Michael Clayton, Alex Smith and Brian Kelly, to name a few - the Bucs have probably overachieved at this point.

Much of the credit can go to Gruden having quarterback Jeff Garcia, who has brought energy and efficiency to the offense.

But with no feature running back, an inexperienced offensive line and receivers in the late stages of their careers, you can't argue with the production.

"I think people are starting to pay attention a little bit to what we're doing, and tip your hat to Coach Gruden," receiver Ike Hilliard said.

"We sat here and wrapped maybe 148 carted blitzes (for the Cardinals), and we prepare for every team in that fashion. People need to get off Coach Gruden a little bit. He's done a great job of preparing us every week. It's just a shame on us for being 5-4 because it should be a lot better than that."

The Bucs could wind up regretting their losses to the Lions and Jaguars - games in which they combined for 800 yards of offense. But five turnovers - two fumbles and three interceptions by Garcia - can't be blamed on Gruden.

"I think you take a look at what we've done the last couple weeks, even though we lost a few games prior to (beating the Cardinals), if you compare our offense from this year to last year, we're cutting up people in chunks at times," Hilliard said. "We're just not putting it together completely. We didn't cut people up at all last year, so we put things together in spurts. We played against good defenses and put up some big numbers. We've just got to catch the ball better, and obviously, we've got to block better. The whole thing, we've just got to continue to fine-tune it."

From a media standpoint, there are few coaches as accessible as Gruden. You might not get a one-on-one talk in his office very often, but he will stand and answer questions all day. He is charismatic and mostly very helpful.

But the NFL is a bottom-line business, and the Glazers could face some tough decisions.

Garcia will be 38 at the start of next season, and there is no real quarterback of the future, given Chris Simms' status.

Williams might not be ready to return from a torn patellar tendon injury until sometime during the '08 season, if at all.

Hilliard (31) and Joey Galloway (who turns 36 this month) will eventually need replaced, and Clayton and Maurice Stovall might not be the ones to do it.

Defensively, there are some pieces in place with Tanard Jackson, Jermaine Phillips, Phillip Buchanon and Cato June. But Ronde Barber, Derrick Brooks and Kelly are nearing the end of their careers, and no one knows what kind of player first-round pick Gaines Adams will become.

A lot of what happens in the NFL is a function of schedule, and Gruden's teams are wildly inconsistent - from 5-11 in '04 to 11-5 in '05 to 4-12 in '06. If you're still talking about salary cap troubles and lost draft picks, it's time to stop living in the past.

Bill Parcells probably says it best. If you're in the NFL long enough, the fans and the media cannot define you. The game will tell you what you are. Gruden will either be the coach with four losing seasons in the past five years or the one with two division titles in the past three seasons.

To the Glazers, there is a big difference.

[Last modified November 10, 2007, 17:07:13]