Politics

Tax plan support in doubt

A new ballot measure lacks the 60 percent needed for passage, a voter survey finds.

By ALEX LEARY, Times Staff Writer
Published November 12, 2007

TALLAHASSEE - Lawmakers built the property tax plan for the Jan. 29 ballot on a simple principle: focus on provisions internal polls showed were popular with voters.

Now, the first independent survey of that strategy indicates it's not working.

Fifty-three percent of registered voters said they support the tax package, seven points short of the 60 percent needed to pass a constitutional amendment.

"At 53 percent, basically you can't give it away," said pollster Thom Eldon.

Twenty-seven percent opposed and 20 percent were undecided, according to the poll done for the St. Petersburg Times, Bay News 9and a coalition of news media outlets.

Support for the tax plan dropped to 47 percent when potential voters were told about specific provisions of the plan, which heavily favors owners of homestead property and would cut $2-billion from school budgets over five years.

"It looks like they're getting ready to take away more tax money from education and other necessary things and take away from the quality of life in Florida even further," said Dave Anderson, a Democrat and retired journalist and consultant in Westchase.

Anderson, 65, would benefit greatly under the plan's "portability," which allows people to carry accumulated Save Our Homes savings when they move. But he still intends to vote no.

Kelly Whitehead, 46, a Republican from New Tampa, is not a big fan of the proposal because it does not adequately address nonhomestead property owners who have born the brunt of the tax increases in recent years.

The plan does include a 10 percent cap on assessments for nonhomestead property, though in a normal market that could have little if any effect.

"It needs to be fairer to everyone, like people who have a winter home," said Whitehead, who would not benefit from the 10 percent cap. "They need to come up with something fair and across the board."

An overwhelming number of voters rated the Legislature's effort to cut taxes as fair or poor (77 percent). The poll results, combined with lukewarm support even from some Legislators, add up to a plan that faces many obstacles.

Part of the problem is the Legislature's own doing. Prodded by business lobbyists who thought it was too easy for interest groups to change the state Constitution, lawmakers passed a measure to raise the bar for passage of a statewide referendum from a simple majority to 60 percent.

That measure passed in 2006. The property tax referendum will be the first subjected to the new standard.

Sen. Dan Webster, the Winter Garden Republican who helped fashion the tax proposal during a tense special session last month, pointed to doubling the homestead as the key selling point of the proposal. "People love this idea," he said at the time. "We cannot lose that marquee trademark."

Webster said internal GOP polls showed the provision with an approval rating well above 60 percent.

But those high numbers were not repeated in the independent telephone survey of 800 registered voters, conducted Nov. 4-7 for a coalition of media outlets, including the Times, Bay News 9, the Miami Herald and the Palm Beach Post.

The poll was done by Schroth, Eldon & Associates, whose clients primarily are Democrats, and the Polling Co., which mainly works with Republicans. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Despite the initial tepid public support for the tax proposal, three months remain for backers to change voters' minds.

"It really depends on how much money is put toward the effort for and against (the amendment) and who the leaders are," said Kellyanne Conway of the Polling Co.

Support for doubling the homestead exemption and portability was strong among young people and those who had been in their homes less than three years.

They are the ones most feeling the strain of higher taxes, having not had the protection of Save Our Homes. But the plan does little for them. Doubling the homestead exemption - a benefit that would not apply to school taxes - would provide an average savings of $240 annually, or $20 a month.

"It's a perilous position for the 'yes' side to be in, considering they are getting the largest base of support from people who don't stand to gain that much," pollster Eldon said.

But Conway said support among young Democrats and independents is a positive sign.

The question is: Will they turn out to vote?

Leading the pro side is Gov. Charlie Crist, who championed doubling the homestead exemption and Save Our Homes portability during his run for office in 2006.

It was Crist who persuaded reluctant House members to vote for the package during a special session last month. Then Crist embarked on a statewide promotional tour, something he will have to keep doing to get the amendment over the hurdle it now faces.

"We'd be nuts not to go for it," said Carl Crisp, a retired plumber in Largo. Crisp has lived in his home for 30 years and has built up considerable tax savings under Save Our Homes, which went into effect in 1995.

Crisp, however, has grown tired of the increasing congestion around him and wants to move to Zephyrhills in east Pasco County. The tax bill, however, is an impediment. Under portability that problem would go away.

Another vote Crist can count on is Richard Bruce, 70, of Clearwater. He understands the savings are mild for someone not planning to move, and he thinks more should be done for businesses.

"But this is better than nothing," he said.

Times staff writers Adam C. Smith and Jennifer Liberto contributed to this report.

Major elements of the tax plan

1. Homestead exemption doubled, except on school taxes.

2. Save Our Homes benefit can be taken to a new home.

3. $25,000 exemption on tangible personal property tax.

4. 10% cap on non homestead assessments.

Proposed tax plan

Major elements of the property tax plan:

1. Homestead exemption doubles, except on school taxes.

2. Save Our Homes benefit can be taken to a new home.

3. $25,000 exemption on tangible personal property tax.

4. 10 percent cap on nonhomestead assessments.

[Last modified November 11, 2007, 23:33:53]