Politics

Go ahead, try to pick winner in GOP race

As the presidential candidates near the debate here, the race is unusual: no clear favorite.

By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
Published November 25, 2007

"They say in politics that a week is an eternity. In this case, a year has been a century because of all the changes we've seen," marveled Republican consultant Adam Goodman, a former Rudy Giuliani adviser.
	[Melissa Lyttle | Times]

It only seems like this presidential campaign has lasted an eternity.

Hang on, though. Voting is just weeks away, and the Republican primary could not possibly be more unpredictable.

Check out the Republican hopefuls Wednesday night in St. Petersburg for the CNN/YouTube debate and you'll see four or five candidates with plausible paths to the nomination.

A Republican primary so volatile and unpredictable is practically unheard of in modern political history. So let's step back and review the long, strange trip that has taken us to this point.

"They say in politics that a week is an eternity. In this case, a year has been a century because of all the changes we've seen," marveled Republican consultant Adam Goodman, a former Rudy Giuliani adviser who's unaffiliated this cycle.

* * *

The most important day of the 2008 GOP primary? Consider Aug. 11, 2006. Virginia Sen. George Allen calls a Democratic staffer of Indian descent a "macaca," starting the demise of Allen's re-election campaign against Democrat James Webb and snuffing the presidential aspirations of a man widely seen as a conservative superstar.

A gregarious, cowboy-booted former Southern governor, Allen is a consistent social conservative in the mold of President Bush - except tougher on immigration.

The more than $150-million spent by Republican presidential candidates this year, the countless speeches to Iowans and New Hampshirites, the accusations and counter-accusations about who would be softer on illegal immigrants, who's a flip-flopper, and who's a proven leader basically boil down to a contest of who can fill the void left by the implosion of George Allen.

Nobody has succeeded at snatching the conservative mantle. No one has even emerged as a clear front-runner 39 days before Iowans kick off the voting.

"Generally at this stage there are one or two front-runners, somebody with 40 percent of the vote. Hell, we're barely breaking 30 percent right now," said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, noting that conservatives have significant reservations about every candidate. "You can either blame Jim Webb or you can call this the result of the macaca remark."

Giuliani has done little to back off his record as a moderate on hot-button issues such as abortion rights and gay rights. But none of the other candidates hasemerged as a clear alternative to the former New York mayor: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was a vocal moderate until he started running for president; John McCain has never been trusted by many conservatives; Mike Huckabee oversaw tax increases and big spending initiatives in Arkansas; and Fred Thompson has yet to show he's much of a candidate.

* * *

Hard to believe now, but 18 months ago much of the top, young Republican political talent in the Beltway was lining up to work for the presumptive nominee --John McCain. The establishment candidate, the quasi-incumbent, seemed to be McCain, who had moved from maverick to staunch George W. Bush ally since 2000.

Plenty of savvy operatives doubted McCain would have a credible Republican challenger.

Romney had some buzz, but he was still little-known. Besides, even with his personal millions and early inroads hiring top-tier campaign staffers, people doubted the electability of a Mormon who had publicly boasted of how much he could do to advance gay rights and how he would not want to return to the days of Reagan-Bush.

Giuliani was a Republican icon, but a little over a year ago many Republican strategists doubted that he would make the leap.

"Nobody really thought he'd get in. His history was bypassing the big race. He skipped running for governor, he skipped running against Hillary Clinton for Senate," said McCain campaign manager Rick Davis. "I would have bet money that he wouldn't."

Even when Giuliani formally entered the race in February with soaring national poll numbers, other leading campaigns didn't take him seriously. Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg summed up the conventional wisdom: "It seems to me that you need to suspend all your analytical faculties to believe the GOP will nominate for president a Republican who supports abortion rights, and is pro-gun control and pro-gay rights. It just isn't going to happen, at least not in my lifetime."

That view hasn't entirely disappeared, but nobody is writing off Giuliani now. The more top contenders divide up the title of staunch conservative, the better for Giuliani, who is making Florida a linchpin of his strategy.

* * *

If you're just tuning in, here's some of what you may have missed in recent months:

-McCain, weighed down by a bloated campaign operation, anemic fundraising and his support of the president's immigration reform plan, had to jettison most of his campaign staff last summer and was written off for dead. Now playing the role of the scrappy fighter, he's showing signs of life in New Hampshire and can't be written off.

-Law & Order actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson in September finally answered the call of all those Republicans looking for another Ronald Reagan - George Allen fell through, remember - and quickly rose toward the top of polls nationally and in key early states like Florida. It didn't last long, though.

The late start, mediocre fundraising and a quickly earned image as a shaky and sometime lethargic campaignerhelped dim the Thompson fire. Given his acting skills and strong national polling numbers, there's no telling what a potent TV campaign might do for him, however.

-Romney ran a near flawless campaign, building strong organizations in every early contest. With a top-notch campaign and fundraising team - helped along by at least $17.5-million from Romney himself - he is positioned to win every early contest leading up to Florida. But the flip-flopper image and sometimes robotic persona have prevented him from closing the deal even in the states where he has spent millions.

-Which is why self-effacing Baptist minister and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is a serious contender despite little money or organization. The latest polls show Huckabee neck and neck in Iowa with Romney, who has outspent Huckabee and built a vast organization there. "If he pulls off an upset in Iowa, I think all bets are off for who gets the conservative mantle," said Goodman, the Republican consultant.

* * *

A fundamental question: Will Florida Republicans follow the lead of Republicans in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina?

Because if Giuliani loses in each of those early contests - Iowa Jan. 3, New Hampshire Jan. 8, Michigan Jan. 15 and South Carolina Jan. 19 - there's no guarantee the comfortable lead he has among Florida Republicans will hold on Jan. 29. Giuliani hopes a Florida win will catapult him to victory when some two dozen states hold primaries Feb. 5.

But Giuliani hasn't put near the effort in the earliest states like Iowa and New Hampshire, and could pay the price.

"People have to remember that the history of the presidential campaign is that it's more about momentum," said Huckabee, who has been mostly invisible in Florida and marshaled his limited resources mainly to Iowa. "You have to be able to have some momentum going into these other states."

* * *

All this leaves us with a potentially explosive Tampa Bay debate in the prelude to the home stretch of the Republican primary.

Pollster Newhouse was succinct: "The next eight weeks? Chaos."

Tommy Hopper, a veteran Republican consultant from Tennessee, worries what such a close, unpredictable race might bring.

"Anything can happen here, but Republicans need to focus on where the general election is going," Hopper said. "It's going to be a very competitive situation in the next two months and there are going to be a lot of charges made. We have to remember that they will be made in the heat of battle, and that ultimately Hillary Clinton is the real enemy."

Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com or (727)892-8241.

Fast Facts:

Debate tickets

If you're not an invited guest, you won't be sitting inside the Mahaffey Theater for Wednesday night's CNN/YouTube Republican debate. CNN spokeswoman Edie Emery said seating is by invitation only, with tickets alloted to debate partners, sponsors, participating campaigns and venue hosts. There are about 1,600 seats after staging, Emery said.

Expect traffic delays Wednesday

Road closures are expected on Bayshore Drive from Fifth Avenue S to Fifth Avenue N and on First Street from First Avenue S to Fifth Avenue S from noon to 10 p.m. Wednesday in St. Petersburg. Parking also will be limited on Fifth Avenue N near Vinoy Park and on Fifth Avenue S and Bayshore Drive near Albert Whitted Airport. Finally, work crews will be resurfacing Third Street from Fifth Avenue S to Fifth Avenue N. Northbound traffic will be reduced two lanes from 7 p.m. to 6 a.m. today through Wednesday.

[Last modified November 24, 2007, 20:41:08]