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Letter to the editor

Modest gains on Black Friday

More people shopped, but they didn't spend much more than 2006.

By MARK ALBRIGHT, Times Staff Writer
Published November 28, 2007

As holiday retail sales estimates piled up Tuesday, one story line emerged about shopper behavior the week of Black Friday: They came. They shopped. They didn't spend much more than a year ago.

"Traffic was reasonably healthy, but consumers were out looking for bargains; so it was a mixed bag," summed up Mike Niemira, chief economist of the International Council of Shopping Centers.

The trade group, which monitors sales at 60 retail chains, reported a modest 2.5 percent sales gain in comparable stores for the Black Friday week. Johnson Redbook's sales index, which measures 9,000 stores largely in the apparel business, rose a scant 2.2 percent.

The two indexes, the first holiday shopping reports based on actual retail sales, mesh in some ways with two other reports released over the weekend. ShopperTrak, an index based on mall traffic, found that the number of shoppers was up 8 percent, to 147-million. The other, a Black Friday survey by BIG Research based on what 2,800 shoppers said they did, found more of them went shopping, but they spent less.

Experts say the seemingly conflicting results buttress early theories about changing consumer moods and shopping habits as the economy slows down:

- Some shoppers squeezed by debt, deteriorating housing prices and job security are trading down.

- Others didn't spend as much because retailers enticed them by aggressively slashing prices.

- Brisk apparel sales were spurred by cold weather and bargains after an unusually warm fall kept people from buying cold weather clothing.

All three trends, however, point to a ho-hum holiday season. Overall the National Retail Federation has forecast a 4 percent sales gain in general merchandise sales. That would be a bit behind last year's pace and the worst performance since a 1.3 percent gain in 2002.

"Everything seems to be pointing to a level of spending closer to 2002," said Richard Hastings, economist for the Federation of Credit and Financial professionals, which monitors retailers' creditworthiness. His forecast: a modest 2.7 to 3.5 percent gain.

Online shopping sites, which used their own discounts this year to promote what they call Cyber Monday, said visits tripled.

But comScore Inc. reported that sales rose about 15 percent, to $700-million, of $39-billion in forecast online sales for the two-month holiday season. Last year, Cyber Monday was the 12th-busiest day of the holiday season, according to Chase Paymentech, a credit authorization service that processed $100-million worth of online transactions Monday.

The average order Monday reflected lower prices, too, at $53, down from $56.90 a year ago. Paymentech expects Dec. 15 will be the biggest online shopping day of the year

Mark Albright can be reached at albright@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8252.

[Last modified November 27, 2007, 23:02:09]