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Politics

Chavez's power grab put to vote

In a referendum on Sunday, he seeks to extend presidency.

By DAVID ADAMS and PHIL GUNSON
Published December 1, 2007

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez remains popular among working-class supporters who hail him as the country's first president to give the poor a voice. He is also widely credited with redistributing the country's vast oil wealth to improve medical and educational services in the poorest barrios.
	[AP photo]

ADVERTISEMENT [Getty Images] Tens of thousands of supporters of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez attend a rally supporting a referendum which would eliminate term limits for Chavez and turn Venezuela into a "socialist economy."

CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela's controversial president, Hugo Chavez, has survived strikes, bloody protests and a coup. Each time he has come out stronger than before.

Chavez faces another do-or-die moment Sunday when voters go to the polls to decide his bold bid to extend his power with a sweeping package of constitutional changes.

Victory could seal Chavez's grip on this oil-rich nation for decades to come.

But a defeat could derail the socialist ambitions of a ruler who wants to replace Fidel Castro as leader of the Latin American left.

Opinion polls suggest it could be the closest contest Chavez has faced. Some polls give the "No" vote a narrow lead, of two to five points.

More than 100,000 people massed in the streets of Caracas on Thursday, squaring off with government security forces to protest the amendments.

"People want to send a message that he has gone far enough," said Michael Shifter, a veteran Venezuela analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.

On Friday in Caracas, more than 200,000 supporters of Chavez rallied.

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Chavez calls it "a battle of world proportions" to fundamentally transform the country along socialist lines. Victory could have regional implications, as Bolivia and Ecuador are following similar paths.

Voters will choose "Yes" or "No" on a bundle of 69 amendments, including scrapping presidential term limits, extending the presidential term from six to seven years and officially establishing Venezuela as a socialist state. A simple majority is all that is needed to win.

Human rights groups, student demonstrators and other opponents, including the Catholic church, warn that revisions to the constitution would turn Venezuela into an elected dictatorship. Chavez won re-election last December and won't leave office until 2012. He has said he wants to hold office until 2030.

"Hugo Chavez isn't on the left, he's simply a dictator, he's a fascist," said Yon Goicoechea, a 23-year-old law student and demonstration leader.

The president's allies already control Congress, the Supreme Court and every other major institution. Chavez's government is also profiting mightily from high oil prices. Venezuela is a major oil exporter, providing the United States with about 12 percent of its supply.

Polls are divided and politicized. Most analysts seem to agree the "No" vote can win only if the opposition gets a high turnout. But some opponents vow to abstain in protest over the referendum's alleged illegality and fears of fraud, though elections have historically been deemed clean by foreign observers.

"The whole thing is unconstitutional," said Nedo Paniz, a Caracas architect and opposition supporter who plans to abstain. "It's a matter of principle."

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Chavez remains popular among working-class supporters who hail him as the country's first president to give the poor a voice. He is also widely credited with redistributing the country's vast oil wealth to improve medical and educational services in the poorest barrios.

But the support for the referendum about 40 percent is much lower than Chavez's popularity rating (over 60 percent).

Political and economic factors have undermined support for the referendum. Although oil prices have injected huge sums of money into the economy, fueling a boom in consumer spending on luxury goods, stores are experiencing a scarcity of basic goods, including milk, sugar and cooking oil. Critics say government price controls and state-run markets have stifled production by removing free market incentives.

Chavez has also had some key desertions, including Gen. Raul Baduel, 52, who recently retired as army commander. In 2002 it was Baduel who backed Chavez during an attempted coup. Butin July he accused Chavez of using the referendum to mount his own "coup d'etat."

Chavez has intensified his intimidation of opponents. Only "traitors" would dare vote against him, he said. He also threatened to strip the country's industrialists, vowing to "take away every business you have."

After church leaders called the proposed changes "morally unacceptable," Chavez threatened to throw Cardinal Jorge Urosa Savino in jail, calling him a "thug" and "mentally retarded." A member of the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference of bishops said the Chavez government contained "a number of bums," and was corrupted by a "rottenness that stinks."

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U.S. officials have not hidden their disdain for Chavez's autocratic tendencies in the past. But the Bush administration has stayed out of the fray, offering no opinion on the referendum.

Chavez's style has posed a dilemma for foreign observers who find his political rhetoric repulsive but recognize that Venezuela's corrupt political system was badly in need of reform when Chavez was elected in 1999.

"These are new classes of people being given a voice. It's a rare event, so I am all for it," said Mark Weisbrot of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.

While he is turned off by Chavez's style, he sees it as part of a political transition away from minority, elite rule. "Chavez is not a statesman by our standards, but part of his appeal is that he says what he feels."

But critics say the proposed changes aren't likely to deepen democracy.

"I just think he's intent on shutting down any source of potential power, or challenge to him," said Shifter.

Information from Times wires was used in this report. Phil Gunson is a Times freelance correspondent based in Caracas. David Adams is the Times Latin America correspondent and can be reached at dadams@sptimes.com.

[Last modified December 1, 2007, 09:22:48]