Bucs-Saints scouting report

By STEPHEN F. HOLDER, Times Staff Writer
Published December 2, 2007

The basics

This game is one of the Bucs' biggest of the season - and not just because it's the next one.

With a two-game lead in the NFC South over the Saints, the Bucs can put critical distance between themselves and New Orleans with a victory today at the Superdome.

Should the Bucs pull out a win, they will be in position to clinch the NFC South title next week at Houston because they would own the tiebreaker after sweeping the Saints.

But it won't be easy to take control of the division.

The Bucs know they'll get a worthy effort from Saints quarterback Drew Brees. About the only way he doesn't toss a barrage of passes is if his throwing arm gets tired - a possibility given the way he has been throwing with abandon this season.

Brees has not attempted fewer than 34 passes in any game this season while attempting a season-high 49 passes on two occasions. But with that many passes comes opportunities for the Bucs defense. Brees has thrown five interceptions in his past three games, with St. Louis and Houston gobbling up two apiece.

Running back Reggie Bush, as usual, will be a key cog in the game plan. He leads the Saints in receptions with 70 - impressive for a running back - but most are quick swing passes designed much like running plays. Those plays require discipline to defend.

Generating a pass rush will be difficult for Tampa Bay, though the Bucs have been better at getting pressure lately. The Saints have allowed a league-low eight sacks this season, partly because Brees gets rid of the ball quickly and because they have a formidable offensive line.

On the defensive side, the Saints have shown some vulnerability. They have been miserable against the pass, ranking 27th in pass defense. And they haven't been much better in total defense, allowing 341.3 yards per game (22nd).

But their front seven - led by ends Will Smith and Charles Grant and linebacker Scott Fujita - have been solid against the run.

Only three opponents have reached 100 net rushing yards against New Orleans. Last week against Carolina, the Panthers managed just 43 rushing yards, averaging a miserable 2.4 yards per carry.

Injuries

Tampa Bay: FB B.J. Askew (ankle), DL Kevin Carter (groin), QB Jeff Garcia (back), CB Brian Kelly (ankle), RB Michael Pittman (ankle) and DE Greg Spires (calf) are questionable. LB Barrett Ruud (knee) is probable.

New Orleans: DT McKinley Boykin (knee) and RB Pierre Thomas (kidney) are questionable.

Keep in mind

For all the buzz about the Saints and their prolific passing attack, perhaps the biggest deciding factor in their games has been their ability (or lack thereof) to run the ball.

Since running back Deuce McAllister's season-ending knee injury in Week 3, the Saints have netted at least 100 rushing yards four times in eight games. In those games, New Orleans is 4-0, including wins at Seattle and against Jacksonville. By comparison, in the remaining four games in which the Saints did not reach 100 rushing yards, they were 1-3, with the lone win coming against 3-8 Atlanta on Oct. 21.

Key matchup

Bucs LT Donald Penn vs. Saints DE Will Smith

Smith was neutralized in the teams' first meeting, recording two tackles and a pass deflection in the Bucs' 31-14 win. Why this matchup will be different: In the first meeting, Luke Petitgout started at left tackle. He has since been placed on injured reserve after suffering a season-ending knee injury Sept. 30 at Carolina. This will be Penn's first effort against the Pro Bowl right defensive end. Smith's efforts will be key if anyone other than Jeff Garcia is playing quarterback for the Bucs. Expect New Orleans to try to stymie either backup quarterback with multiple looks and blitzes if Bruce Gradkowski or Luke McCown starts.

[Last modified December 1, 2007, 17:13:20]