Politics

Florida's early voting: a wrinkle in the election cycle

The new wrinkle gives presidential hopefuls risk and reward.

By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
Published December 19, 2007

As the political world consumes itself with how Iowans might winnow the presidential field Jan. 3, many Floridians aren't waiting to see what happens in church basement caucuses 1,300 miles away.

It's a little-noticed wrinkle in this topsy-turvy election: Floridians already are voting, earlier than anyone else in America, which creates a complication, and opportunity, for the presidential contenders.

By some estimates, more Florida Republicans could vote by year's end than the roughly 85,000 Republicans who show up for Iowa's all-important caucuses in 2 1/2 weeks. Not only can presidential candidates bank votes, but so can supporters and foes of the tax-cutting initiative on the ballot.

"Everyone's focused on Iowa and New Hampshire, but I can attest that as of Monday there are 604 people in Pasco that have already voted," said Pasco Supervisor of Elections Brian Corley, who mailed 3,808 absentee ballots more than a week ago.

The votes won't be tallied until the Jan. 29 primary, but it means Florida's election day is effectively six weeks long. So, some voters casting ballots now could end up voting for candidates who drop out before Jan. 29.And campaigns that play it right can head into primary day with a significant lead.

"Absentee voting and early voting is something we care about very much, it's something we get, and it's something we will invest significant resources in," said Mike DuHaime, Rudy Giuliani's national campaign manager. "In states like Florida and California, early voting and absentee voting is so important you almost need a separate operation to focus on it."

People who vote by mail, orat early voting locations starting Jan. 14, are expected to account for at least one of every three votes cast in Florida's primary.

That won't mean much for the Democrats running for president, since they are boycotting the state for setting a primary date that violates national party rules. But it's potentially critical for the Republican primary, where Florida stands to be the most important contest in a nomination battle likely to be decided one week later, when nearly two dozen states vote on Feb. 5.

"Candidates better start paying even more attention to Florida if they want to be successful on Jan. 29," said state Rep. David Rivera, R-Miami, an architect of Florida's early primary who thinks his candidate, Mike Huckabee, could benefit from absentee voting already under way.

"From Huckabee's perspective, I'm glad the ballots are hitting now because he's riding such a wave of success," Rivera said.

The two best-organized Florida campaigns, Giuliani's and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's, have yet to aggressively encourage absentee voting beyond phone calls. But mailers urging targeted voters to vote absentee are expected to hit Florida mailboxes soon.

"We are working on capitalizing on Gov. Romney's growing momentum in Florida," campaign spokeswoman Kristy Campbell said. "Our strong grass roots organization continues to reach out to people across Florida as absentee ballot voting continues and in advance of early voting and the primary on January 29th."

The Romney campaign is consumed with halting Huckabee's momentum in Iowa, however, and could be dead without a win before Florida. Romney has the money to campaign aggressively and continues to pay for TV ads in several Florida regions, including the Tampa Bay area.

"My assumption is he's going to have an expensive and expansive absentee ballot program in Florida," DuHaime, Giuliani's campaign manager, said of Romney. "He's got the personal checkbook that no one else has."

As more people vote early, campaigns no longer can afford to wait until the last minute.

"The No. 1 complaint I'm getting from my voters is they're saying, 'We don't know anything about the property tax ballot yet,"' Leon County elections chief Ion Sancho said of people around Tallahassee who started voting absentee last week.

Groups on both sides of the tax question, though, have started targeting absentee voters.

"I am calling you today because property taxes are out of control," Gov. Charlie Crist says in a phone message that started reaching Floridians this week. "The system is broken, but you have the power to fix the system and lower property taxes for all Floridians, guaranteed by law. When you cast your absentee ballot, remember to vote Yes on 1 to double your homestead exemption and make Save Our Homes portable. Stand with me and stand up for Florida, vote Yes on 1."

Chasing absentee ballots can be tricky. State law requires every overseas absentee ballot to be sent by Christmas - 35 days before primary day - but the 67 county elections offices tend to decide on their own when to send ballots.

Pinellas last week sent out more than 20,000 absentee ballots, as did Hernando and Pasco counties, while Hillsborough's roughly 4,000 local absentee ballots will be sent after Christmas.

Florida is not the only state with widespread early voting. By the time of California's Feb. 5 primary, millions of people are expected to have already voted. They get started Jan. 7 - three days after Iowa's caucuses and one day before New Hampshire's primary.

Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com or (727)893-8241.

Judge tosses voter verification law

In a win for voting rights groups Tuesday, a federal judge in Gainesville barred the state from enforcing a 2-year-old law requiring election supervisors to verify a would-be voter's identity by using a driver's license or the last four digits of a Social Security number. The state said it would appeal the preliminary injunction. The plaintiffs, including the Florida State Conference of the NAACP, said the law disproportionately disqualifies minorities. Among the reasons: the use of two surnames by many Hispanic and Haitian voters causes confusion and mismatches in voter databases.

Times staff

Fast facts

Key election dates in Florida

Dec. 31: Last day to register or change party registration for the primary.

Jan. 14: Early voting begins at designated polling locations across the state.

Jan. 29: Primary election.

[Last modified December 19, 2007, 00:59:14]