Success next year? It might be a surprise
In a season such as this, everyone knows better than to peek under the tree.
By GARY SHELTON
Published December 23, 2007
In a season such as this, everyone knows better than to peek under the tree.
Why, you appreciate the gifts you have. You seize the day, you savor the moment, and you enjoy the ride. Everyone reminds you of this, and when they do, you try not to make rude noises as you pantomime putting your finger down your throat. You let tomorrow take care of itself.
Either that or you look ahead and think about what you're going to get next.
As far as the Tampa Bay Bucs, perhaps you dare to wonder about next season.
Now that this regular season has pretty much been taken care of, it's an easy question to ask, especially when you consider the recent history of the Bucs. They have become a rich man-poor man sort of franchise, prone to improbable surges up the mountain and inconceivable plunges from it.
They were last in their division in 2004, and just when you were ready to give up on them, they spiked to first in 2005. And just when you were ready to consider them cured, they fell to last in 2006. And just when you were ready to fire everyone, they climbed back to first in 2007.
They are the NFL's greatest contrarians, and they play as if they cannot stand whatever it is you think of them.
So what does 2008 promise?
And should you bring a parachute?
The easy answer is this: perhaps. This is the NFL, after all, a league that seems to dislike teams that win too often as much as those who lose too often. Successful teams fall down the stairs all the time in the NFL. Don't you think fans expected a pretty good year in Chicago this year? In Baltimore? In New Orleans? In Denver?
As observers, you can get fooled. You see the success of a team one season, and you trick yourself into thinking it will translate into success the next. But that's not true anymore. The reason success is so hard to figure out in the NFL is that the odds are stacked against sustaining it.
For instance, how many teams do you think had a winning record last season and then followed it with a winning record this season. Answer: four (five if New Orleans wins its final two games).
If you consider the past six seasons - Jon Gruden's tenure with the Bucs, in other words - only the Patriots and Colts have had a winning season every year. Most teams bounce up and down from one year to the next. The Jets, for instance, have gone from winners to losers and back again for six straight seasons.
So could the bottom fall out for the Bucs next year? Of course it could. A team has to acknowledge that before it can avoid it.
The traps?
For one thing, the Bucs' schedule figures to be much more difficult next year. There are games scheduled against Green Bay, Dallas, San Diego, Seattle and Minnesota. There are road games to difficult places such as Chicago and Denver. Overall, this year's opponents have won 104 games through 14 games. Next year's opponents have won 116.
For another, the NFC South has to be better as a division, doesn't it? Atlanta still figures to be a mess, but don't you think the Saints would finally address that defense? Don't you expect a better quarterback in Carolina than what it has played with this season?
And that's the thing. Despite all the talk about strength of schedule, a team usually rises and falls with how it fares in its division. For example: In the Bucs' three winning seasons under Gruden, they have been a combined 14-3 in their division (with Carolina still left on this year's schedule). In their three losing seasons, they have been 4-14.
So is next year all woe and warning shots? No, it isn't.
Let's go back to 2006, the last time a Bucs team fell to earth. That was a flawed team coming off a season in which every call, every bounce fell the right way. That team won 12 games, but it outscored its opponents by only 24 points. When the careers of Chris Simms and Cadillac Williams did not continue to grow, that team did not, either.
By comparison, this year's team has been more solid, more resilient. Its victories have been more convincing (through 14 games, it has outscored opponents by 74 points). In other words, it has a better chance to avoid a stumble than the past Bucs champions.
True, Jeff Garcia will be a year older. So will Derrick Brooks and Joey Galloway and Ronde Barber. On the other hand, Barrett Ruud will have a year's more experience. So will Gaines Adams and Tanard Jackson and an improving offensive line.
Oh, the Bucs have some work to do in the offseason. Of course they do. They could use another receiver, perhaps two. They could use another defensive lineman. Perhaps a running back. Given the successful shopping of last offseason, given the room under the salary cap, firming up the roster shouldn't be too much to ask.
In other words, there is a chance for success. In the NFL, that's the best you get.
Say this for the Bucs, however. Given all the predictions, they surprised a lot of people by winning this year.
Say this for the Bucs, too. Given their history, they have a chance to surprise people by winning next year, too.
FAST FACTS
Winning seasons in the past six
6 - Indianapolis, New England
5 - Denver
4 - Pittsburgh, San Diego, Philadelphia, Dallas, Green Bay, Seattle
3 - Tampa Bay, N.Y. Jets, Miami, Baltimore, Jacksonville, N.Y. Giants, Minnesota
Fall from grace
The most disappointing teams this season:
2006/2007
Baltimore 13-3/4-10
Chicago 13-3/5-9
N.Y. Jets 10-6/3-11
Philadelphia 10-6/6-8
San Diego 14-2/9-5
Bouncing back
The best turnarounds this season:
2006/2007
Cleveland 4-12/9-5
Tampa Bay 4-12/9-5
Green Bay 8-8/12-2
Jacksonville 8-8/10-4
Minnesota 6-10/8-6