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Bhutto assassination raises fears

Pakistan may be on the brink of anarchy after the slaying of the opposition leader.

By Times wires
Published December 28, 2007

RAWALPINDI, Pakistan -- Benazir Bhutto, for decades the central figure in a tortured struggle to bring democratic rule to Pakistan, was assassinated Thursday afternoon as she waved to supporters after a political rally, plunging the country into new turmoil just days before scheduled elections.

The death of the former prime minister creates a massive political void in this nuclear-armed nation of 165-million people and opens the door to potentially greater violence in a year of almost nonstop tumult here. It leaves in tatters Washington's strategy of fighting extremism by pairing Bhutto with President Pervez Musharraf, a close U.S. ally who has been under siege in the streets for months.

Around the world Thursday, government leaders pleaded with Pakistanis to stay calm. In Texas, President Bush urged her countrymen "to honor Benazir Bhutto's memory by continuing with the democratic process for which she so bravely gave her life."

Bhutto, 54, was struck down by an unknown gunman, according to witnesses and police, who then blew himself up, killing 20 other people.

As she left the rally in a white SUV, youths chanted her name and supportive slogans, said Sardar Qamar Hayyat, an official from Bhutto's party who was about 10 yards away.

Despite the danger of physical exposure, a smiling Bhutto stuck her head out of the sunroof and responded, he said.

"Then I saw a thin young man jumping toward her vehicle from the back and opening fire. Moments later, I saw her speeding vehicle going away. That was the time when I heard a blast and fell down," he said.

Bhutto was rushed into surgery. A doctor on the surgical team said a bullet in the back of her neck damaged her spinal cord before exiting from the side of her head. Another bullet pierced the back of her shoulder and came out through her chest, he said on condition of anonymity. She was given an open-heart massage, but the spinal cord damage was too great, he said.

"At 6:16 p.m. she expired," said Wasif Ali Khan, a member of Bhutto's party who was at Rawalpindi General Hospital.

Pakistan's future

Pakistani analysts were plunged into gloom. Talat Masood, a retired general, said: "Conditions in the country have reached a point where it is too dangerous for political parties to operate." But he also saw glimmers of conciliation. "This can turn into anarchy. Or it can turn into something Benazir Bhutto could not achieve in life but may achieve in death. It could provide the momentum needed for a return to the rule of law and democracy. It could go either way."

How events unfold lies largely in the hands of Musharraf, Bhutto's husband and another opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif, according to Pakistani analysts. But it is Musharraf who faces the largest potential threat.

Analysts said the assassination would hurt Musharraf politically and place him in one of the most difficult positions of his turbulent eight years in power. How he handles the next several days could determine whether nationwide antigovernment protests erupt.

At the core of Musharraf's problem is a widespread perception that he did too little to protect Bhutto or that his government carried out the killing itself, analysts said.

Demonstrations are expected to peak at Bhutto's funeral today outside Karachi. Her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, could call for restraint or for further protests.

If Musharraf declares a state of emergency, he is likely to meet stronger popular opposition than he did when he declared emergency powers in November, analysts said. If he proceeds with nationwide elections scheduled for Jan. 8, he is likely to encounter street protests as well. Analysts said that holding the elections would be seen as an effort by him to take advantage of Bhutto's death.

Without her, Bhutto's party, the Pakistan Peoples Party, will struggle to compete in the elections. Bhutto was the party's chairwoman for life and tightly controlled its functions, analysts said. Her three children are too young to take her place, but her husband could step forward to replace her.

Sharif announced that his party would withdraw from the elections. Visiting the hospital where Bhutto was pronounced dead, Sharif vowed to assume her mantle as the main leader of the opposition to Musharraf.

U.S. strategy

The United States was struggling to reformulate its plan to stabilize the country based on a rapprochement between Bhutto and Musharraf. Bhutto had returned in October after nearly a decade in exile hoping for a power-sharing deal with Musharraf, but had become his fierce critic.

Recent Bush administration policy on Pakistan had focused heavily on promoting reconciliation between the secular opposition leader who has been dogged by corruption allegations and the increasingly unpopular Musharraf ahead of parliamentary elections set for January 8.

In Washington and Islamabad, U.S. diplomats urged that the elections should not be postponed and strongly advised against a reimposition of emergency rule that Musharraf had lifted just weeks ago.

But such calls could fall on deaf ears, experts said.

"The United States does not have a great deal of leverage where Pakistan is concerned," said Wendy Sherman, who served as counselor to former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. "And at the end of the day, the decisions are going to be made by the Pakistani people and by the leadership of Pakistan and not by the United States."

U.S. officials also scrambled to grasp the implications for the massive aid and counterterrorism programs that have been criticized by lawmakers, especially as al-Qaida and Taliban extremists appear resurgent along the Pakistan-Afghan border.

The United States has poured billions of dollars into Pakistan since Sept. 11, 2001, when Musharraf made a calculated decision to align his government with Washington in going after al-Qaida and the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan.

Information from the Washington Post, the Associated Press and the New York Times was used in this report.

[Last modified December 28, 2007, 00:43:41]