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Politics

Now the voters get their chance : Oh, the possibilities

The candidates have been talking for months. This week, the voters start talking.

By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
Published December 30, 2007

Tom and Trudy Kattner of Algona, Iowa, listen to Barack Obama speak during a campaign stop Dec. 16 at Algona High School.
	[AP photo]

ADVERTISEMENT [AP photo] Sen. John McCain could win New Hampshire behind the independent voters if there is a comfortable win for Hillary Clinton in Iowa. Polls frequently show him to be the strongest general election candidate. [Getty Images] Former long shot Mike Huckabee has rocketed to the top of polls, but will probably need to win in Iowa to keep the momentum going into New Hampshire, South Carolina and beyond. [AP photo] Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney already has spent more than $17-million of his own money to help build him up in Iowa and New Hampshire. The Romney victory scenario begins with a win, or even a strong second-place finish in Iowa. [AP photo] Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is putting much of his focus in Florida and hoping the primaries leading up to Jan. 29 will be a mixed bag. Picking up Florida's 57 Republican delegates would instantly make Giuliani the front-runner heading into "Tsunami" Tuesday. [AP photo] John Edwards' union support could make a difference for Nevada's caucuses on Jan. 15 and then he heads to his native state of South Carolina for the Jan. 26 Democratic primary. He lacks the finances for post-Iowa states, but early wins would bring the money and momentum. [AP photo] No other candidate has as much staying power as Hillary Rodham Clinton, given her financial advantages and deep establishment support. Having spent most of the year as the presumptive nominee, a solid Iowa win could cause voters to fall into line behind their party's choice. [AP photo] Sen. Barack Obama is well positioned to run the table and take the nomination and is essentially tied with Hillary Clinton in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Importantly, he has proven to be a tremendous fundraiser.

DES MOINES, Iowa - At long last, clarity looms in the most unpredictable presidential election in modern history. Over the past year, John McCain has gone from heavy favorite to dead man walking to comeback kid. Hillary Rodham Clinton has lost her aura of invincibility to Barack Obama, and John Edwards remains formidable despite a $400 haircut and his wife's cancer. Mike Huckabee has risen from nowhere, Fred Thompson soared for about a week, and Rudy Giuliani has defied those predicting an early demise. Now, four days before Iowans finally make their picks, we have this remarkable state of affairs: At least seven candidates could plausibly become the next president of the United States.

Iowa's town-hall style voting on Thursday night will launch a cascade of elections that could effectively settle the nominations on Feb. 5, when nearly two-dozen states cast votes on what's being called "Tsunami" Tuesday. Between now and Feb. 5 and a handful of critical elections will be held, including Florida's on Jan. 29.

"Those first couple races are going to dictate what happens next," said Democratic pollster Dave Beattie. "If Hillary wins Iowa it's much more difficult for Obama or Edwards to close the gap."

But the Republican race is so full of viable candidates that even talk of the primary stretching into a brokered convention no longer seems entirely far-fetched.

"Everybody's goal, on both sides, is to be one of the two or three people still viable on Feb. 5," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "If there are three viable Republicans still standing on the morning of Feb. 5, you have the possibility this could go on a long, long time, possibly to the convention."

The scenarios are countless, but we've narrowed it to seven.

The McCain scenario

John McCain should keep his fingers crossed for Hillary Clinton and Mike Huckabee to win Iowa comfortably. McCain lacks the money to mount an aggressive Iowa campaign, but New Hampshire could launch him to the nomination thanks to independent voters who can vote in either party's primary and make up roughly 40 percent of the electorate.

If Clinton wins Iowa, many will see the Democratic race as all but over, thereby encouraging independents to vote in the more exciting Republican race. Add a Huckabee win in Iowa and suddenly McCain is positioned for an upset win over a weakened Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor in New Hampshire. As a Southern governor with a history of raising taxes, Huckabee is unlikely to capitalize on his own Iowa momentum in New Hampshire.

From there, McCain would ride a big wave into Michigan, which he won in 2000, then South Carolina - where he has a strong organization and plenty of dormant strength, and then Florida where a potential endorsement from Gov. Charlie Crist could be a big boost.

McCain campaigned with Crist during his gubernatorial race in 2006, but Crist has remained uncommitted in the presidential race. There has been talk that Crist promised McCain he would hold off on endorsing until after New Hampshire's primary, to give McCain a chance to win, but Crist declined to confirm: "It was a private conversation."

As much as many Republicans distrust McCain on immigration or campaign finance, polls frequently show him to be the strongest general election candidate. That's a powerful persuasion tool.

The Huckabee scenario

Former long shot Mike Huckabee could win the nomination by winning Iowa, avoiding a trouncing in New Hampshire, and then winning South Carolina.

It could happen. The latest polls show him leading Iowa, trailing far behind in New Hampshire, and leading or in contention to win Michigan, South Carolina and Florida.

His best bet is a strong Iowa win that deflates previous front-runner Mitt Romney and gives Huckabee enough momentum to make a respectable showing in New Hampshire less than a week later. He has natural advantages in South Carolina, as a former Southern governor and a former Baptist minister.

Those traits also will give him some traction in parts of Florida, where Huckabee has made a surprising surge in polls without having invested in a significant campaign infrastructure. Rudy Giuliani's whole campaign strategy is based on the notion that a Florida win would demonstrate national electability for a pro-choice Republican who is eyed warily by social conservatives.

That same argument could be made for a small-state governor and one-time preacher who is eyed warily by Wall Street conservatives and party elites.

But it's entirely unclear whether the more people get to know the folksy former governor with a populist streak, the more they will like him. It's probably all over if Huckabee falls short in Iowa.

He has rocketed to the top of polls, but eventually a presidential candidate needs a campaign organization to motivate supporters and turn out voters. Huckabee has scrambled in recent weeks to plant roots in vital states, but he's far, far behind all of his fellow front-runners.

"Huckabee's perceived as this juggernaut who came from nowhere, and if he loses Iowa it's as if the charade has been seen through," said Karl Koch, a veteran Democratic strategist from Tampa. "If he wins Iowa, it's probably a two-man race and the only question is who's the other man."

The Romney scenario

Mitt Romney has run a textbook, methodical campaign built on the reasonable assumption that success in the earliest contests would produce the momentum to win the nomination. He already has spent more than $17-million of his own money to help build him up in Iowa and New Hampshire, and there's no reason to think the former venture capitalist won't spend a lot more.

But he never banked on a long-shot, underfunded candidate like Mike Huckabee overtaking his vast operation in Iowa. It's no accident the Romney campaign in recent weeks has been hammering Huckabee in Iowa and hammering McCain in New Hampshire.

"If he loses Iowa and New Hampshire, he's dead. All the money in the world couldn't bring him back to life," said Al Austin, a Giuliani supporter and top Republican fundraiser from Tampa.

Don't underestimate Romney, though. He's the only Republican candidate who is staffed up and organized to run the table. He's also well enough financed and organized to keep playing in a splintered field long after Huckabee and McCain have run dry.

The Romney victory scenario begins with a win, or even a strong second-place finish in Iowa, either of which could be seen as a comeback of sorts.

From there, he's a top contender in New Hampshire (unlike Huckabee) and he boasts strong family ties to Michigan, where his father was governor. South Carolina remains a challenge, but he has scored enough endorsements and advertised enough to have a shot at winning, especially with the momentum of a few earlier wins.

In this scenario, Huckabee and McCain would be foundering or gone by Jan. 29 and Giuliani would be winless heading into Florida, America's biggest battleground state. Romney's strong Florida organization could be key to winning Florida, which would allow him to roar into Feb. 5.

The Giuliani scenario

Rudy Giuliani is betting that he can do what's never been done in modern political history: win the nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. While his rivals have been freezing in Iowa and New Hampshire, Giuliani has been basking in the Florida sun, hoping a Sunshine State win on Jan. 29 will propel him into success when other mega-states such as New York and California vote a week later.

The best scenario for Giuliani - and it's a plausible one - is a series of mixed verdicts and no clear front-runner heading into Florida.

Say, for instance, Huckabee wins Iowa, McCain wins New Hampshire, Romney wins Michigan, and South Carolina winds up with two or three candidates bunched up at the top with just a couple of percentage points separating them.

Then comes Jan. 29, when Republicans in the state known as New York's "sixth borough" vote. Picking up Florida's 57 Republican delegates would instantly make Giuliani the front-runner heading into Feb. 5.

"South Carolina picks the person who Republicans feel is the conservative in the race, and Florida picks the person they think can win the presidency," said veteran Florida Republican strategist Jamie Miller. "After that, the rest of the country has to decide if they want the most conservative candidate or somebody who will win. If somebody wins South Carolina and Florida? That's our nominee."

The Edwards scenario

Sure the media attention is on Hillary and Barack, but John Edwards has laid the groundwork to win Iowa and enjoy a burst of attention from an upset win.

"Edwards is in the playoffs. If he wins Iowa his scenario is then to win Nevada and South Carolina," said Fort Lauderdale lawyer Mitchell Berger, a top Edwards fundraiser.

Edwards' Southern appeal hasn't done much for him in New Hampshire so far - though momentum from Iowa could - but his union support could make a difference for Nevada's caucuses on Jan. 15 and then he heads to his native state of South Carolina for the Jan. 26 Democratic primary there.

He lacks the money or organization in post-Iowa states that Obama and Clinton have, but momentum generates money and priceless media attention. Plus, outside groups are already spending heavily on his behalf in Iowa.

Add in the prospect of Obama dropping out after a series of losses in January. As the lone alternative to Clinton, Edwards could be well positioned.

Of course, all of this changes without an Iowa win.

The Clinton scenario

Hillary Rodham Clinton's path to the nomination could be as simple as winning Iowa, and then sweeping through the successive races. Or it could mean losing Iowa, coming back to squeak out a win in New Hampshire and then slogging it out state by state.

Having spent most of the year as the presumptive nominee, it wouldn't take much, say a solid Iowa win, for voters to fall into line behind their party's choice.

But if that doesn't happen, no other candidate has as much staying power, given Clinton's financial advantages and deep establishment support. Even though Florida has no Democratic delegates at stake, her overwhelming Sunshine State advantage could provide a high-profile, if only symbolic, victory heading into Feb. 5.

"She has to have a showing here, and if she comes in third in Iowa it increases the importance of Florida for her," said Democratic pollster Dave Beattie.

Narratives tend to change in these campaigns, and the "Hillary's struggling" story line has already lasted awhile.

Iowans are getting ready to pick a president on the heels of an assassination in an unstable country with nuclear weapons. Come caucus night Hillary Clinton's background may prove more comforting than Obama's fresh face.

The Obama scenario

Like Clinton, Obama is well positioned to run the table and snatch the nomination. He's already essentially tied with Clinton in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

What's more, he has proven to be a tremendous fundraiser. That makes him perhaps the only other candidate who can survive a narrow loss in Iowa and come back strong in subsequent states, particularly South Carolina where half the voters are likely to be African-American.

Come Feb. 5, he is the most likely candidate to still be aggressively challenging Clinton for the nomination. He already has campaign offices up and running in 18 of those Feb. 5 states, compared to six for Clinton.

"This is going through Feb. 5, at least, for us and for Hillary. We could come in third in Iowa, God forbid, but we'll still come in a strong second at least in New Hampshire and we're going to win South Carolina. Nevada no one knows," said Miami lawyer Kirk Wagar, Obama's Florida chairman.

So as early as Jan. 9 or as late as Jan. 27, Obama would be the only credible anti-Hillary candidate still standing in the Democratic field. Given that Clinton rarely cracks 45 percent support among Democrats in national polls, that's a strong position to hold.

"Everybody in the Democratic field not named Hillary Clinton always felt that if they got mano-a-mano to Hillary Clinton, they would win," Wagar said. "This country is so desperate for change, Democrats are not going to nominate someone to continue Bush-Clinton, Bush-Clinton."

Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com or (727)893-8241.

[Last modified December 29, 2007, 21:24:41]