Columns

Once again, Gruden can feel the heat

By GARY SHELTON, Times Columnist
Published December 31, 2007

TAMPA

For most of the season, he has worked to remove his feet from the fire. Now that it is over, there is fresh smoke coming from his shoes.

For months now, he has labored to get the target off his back. And what do you know, that bull's-eye seems to have reappeared.

Jon Gruden jogged away from a regular-season Sunday afternoon, and once again, the noise swelled around him. Just like that, all of the pressure had returned. Once again, Gruden might as well have been sitting in a dunk tank, inviting his critics to take their shots.

In the aftermath of Gruden's Giant Gamble, the focus is on him once again.

As for how you should feel about it? Well, check back next week.

No matter how it concludes, the season is on Gruden's shoulders now. After he placed his team on cruise control for the second straight week, how can it be anywhere else? As of now, how you remember this Bucs season will depend largely on how Gruden's plan works out.

Just like last week, the Bucs turned an NFL game into a preseason scrimmage Sunday. Gruden turned most of a loss to Carolina over to his backups, benching seven starters outright and limiting the play of every other starter who has a backup to call his own. You might suspect the Bucs had been taking an Internet music class. Put it this way: If a Buccaneer played in the second half of Sunday's game, this is no time to ask for a contract renegotiation.

To sum up: Gruden chose rest over momentum, health over offensive rhythm and playing it safe over trying to win a 10th game. It seems like a fairly large risk, doesn't it?

Will it work? For the sake of the Gruden's rebuilt reputation, it had better.

For Gruden, this was one of those strategies that invites scrutiny from all directions. Even if you believe that Gruden has earned his contract extension - and I remain one who does - this is the kind of decision that leads to noise. When a coach treats two NFL games as if they don't matter, he had better win the one that does. Essentially, Gruden has shoved all of his roulette chips onto one number. From here, only one result is acceptable.

"There are a lot of bullets you have to take when you take this approach," Gruden said. "There is a downside and an upside. Whoever you want to talk to will find holes in any theory."

Let's agree on this: If the Bucs are able to beat the Giants next week, then Gruden will look like the wise man on the mountain. Do that, and no one is going to ask any more questions about momentum. In victory, everyone would talk about faith and resiliency and discretion and valor.

On the other hand, if the Bucs lose next week, it's going to be easy to wonder how much of a difference momentum would have made and, as a result, easy to blame Gruden.

Ask yourself this: Which team do you think will step livelier into the locker room today? The Giants, who just went toe-to-toe with the best team in football? Or the Bucs, who have lost three out of four to quarterbacks named Larry, Moe and Curly? (Okay, it's Sage, Shaun and Matt, but that's quibbling.)

Momentum, of course, can be hard to define, especially in the Bucs locker room. On Sunday, some seemed to think it means motivated, and some seem to think it means healthy. Most seem to agree it won't matter. Then again, those who don't have momentum never do.

The better question here is about timing. For instance, if quarterback Jeff Garcia struggles, it will be easy to note that he has thrown only 69 times in the team's past seven games. If the team continues to sputter in the red zone, anyone can guess whether an additional two games of working on it might have helped. And so on.

Again, there is nothing sinister at work here. Gruden benched his players because, down deep, he thinks this is the Bucs' best chance at winning. But whether the Bucs are good enough to take most of two weeks off and still play well is a question yet to be answered.

Look around the league. Green Bay let Brett Favre play Sunday. Dallas let Tony Romo play. Seattle played Matt Hasselbeck. Indianapolis let Peyton Manning play. On Saturday, New England played Tom Brady and New York played Eli Manning. (To be fair, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh started backup quarterbacks).

Here's something to consider. Once upon a time, there was another coach who gave his starters the day off and lost a game. The next week, it lost in the opening round of the playoffs to finish with a 9-8 record. The coach was fired. His name? Tony Dungy. Maybe you've heard of him.

So who is right? Who is wrong?

Check here next week. Better yet, check the scoreboard.

[Last modified December 30, 2007, 23:56:30]