Print

Email story

Comment

Letter to the editor

Politics

So few in Iowa decide for you

That's how this small state's caucus works. It tells the nation who is viable and who's not.

By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
Published January 3, 2008

ADVERTISEMENT

DES MOINES, Iowa - Imagine if Pasco County's 100,000 registered Republicans could decide whether the rest of the country should have a chance to consider Mike Huckabee for president.

Or if two-thirds of Pinellas County's 224,000 Democrats had the power to summarily eliminate half the Democratic presidential field before anyone else could weigh in.

That's not so far off from what happens tonight here in the center of the political universe. A sliver of the Iowa electorate, which itself is a sliver of the national electorate, will decide for the rest of us who's a viable presidential contender and who's not.

To those paying passing attention to the longest, most expensive presidential race ever, it's easy to overlook how exclusive this strange Iowa ritual actually is. Even if predictions for recording-setting Democratic turnout hold true, less than one in 10 Iowa voters will show up for this political insiders' election.

"Finding a caucusgoer among our 3-million Iowans is like finding a needle in a haystack," said Kevin McCarthy, the Democratic majority leader of the Iowa state House.

The image of intimate, face-to-face presidential campaigning seems so refreshing: earnest heartland voters personally quizzing would-be presidents about the issues of the day. Sounds like democracy at its purest.

But Thomas Jefferson never imagined the intricate computer models targeting likely Iowa supporters, the thousands of paid professionals fanned across Iowa, and the $40-million of TV advertising that have been unleashed to herd a select group of party activists to their caucus site tonight.

This is not Election Day as we know it in Florida or most other states. Voters don't get 12 hours to pop into their precinct, cast a secret ballot and leave.

A caucus, basically a neighborhood meeting to choose delegates to a series of party conventions held later in the year, will require Iowans to blow off the Orange Bowl game and head out on an ungodly cold night to a community center or church basement. Those who are working, or out of town, or serving in the military overseas or maybe can't find a sitter won't have a say.

"You're talking about in some cases a two-hour commitment. It's very different from a primary, where you just go in, cast a ballot and leave," said Iowa Gov. Chet Culver, a Democrat. "That just really precludes a significant number of people. They're working, have family commitments or other obligations that just don't allow them to get out for a couple hours on a Thursday night."

Stand and be counted

The 1,794 Democratic caucuses, some with hundreds of voters and some with half a dozen, feature lots of arm-twisting and require people literally to stand up for their preferred candidate. Doors open at 6:30 p.m. and close promptly at 7.

"My husband doesn't like the public part. He's very private about politics and doesn't like the idea of a caucus. It's going to be hard to drag him in," Mary Dzubak, a 53-year-old social worker in Johnston, told a couple of United Steelworkers who knocked on her door on behalf of John Edwards this week.

"I went to the last one, and it's very intimidating. It's having to stand in a corner basically saying to your neighbors across the room for another candidate that you disagree with them," she said.

If a Democratic candidate fails to garner at least 15 percent of the vote in a given precinct, he or she is deemed "not viable," and those supporters move to another candidate. So the difference between winning or losing in Iowa can depend on the persuasion skills of an 18-year-old campaign operative, or whether someone's former math teacher is urging, say, a Chris Dodd supporter to switch to Barack Obama.

"It gets pretty heated. You get to go hound your neighbor, who you see standing for someone else," Carrie Vance said laughing. She is a Des Moines homemaker who caucused for Howard Dean in 2004 and this time expects to bring her 2-year-old son with her as she caucuses for Obama. "I remember last time everybody yelling at the Dennis Kucinich supporters, because they knew he was a waste of time."

The campaigns identify voters from 1 to 5, with 1 being people who have actually signed a written pledge to caucus for a given candidate and 5 being people entirely out of reach. A big part of the game is become the second choice of as many voters as possible.

Getting out the vote

Campaigning Wednesday in Coralville, Obama told voters he understands that many had long ago committed to caucus for someone else: "If you're stuck with the other person, then make me your second choice. I still want your support."

Any adult can show up at a caucus and change his or her party registration on the spot. In 2004, 124,000 people showed up at the Democratic caucus, 20 percent of them independent voters.

Some observers are predicting more than 150,000 will turn out tonight for the Democrats, thanks in part to balmy temperatures that are expected to be in the 20s.

Hillary Rodham Clinton and Obama have been working hard to mobilize first-time caucusgoers this time around. A Des Moines Register poll released this week suggested that as much as 40 percent of Democratic caucusgoers this time could be independent voters and 5 percent could be Republicans. Though Clinton actually led among caucusgoers who are registered Democrats, Obama led the paper's poll thanks to all those independents.

Clinton has been working hard to mobilize older women and blue collar women who have never caucused before, while Obama is targeting young voters. Joe Trippi, a top Edwards adviser who ran Howard Dean's campaign in 2004 that tried to attract untapped young voters, is skeptical about a big increase in college-age voters - especially because colleges are still on vacation.

First-time caucusgoers show up and realize they have to spend an hour electing a precinct chairman, taking a formal count of those in attendance and conducting assorted other boring official business before the actual candidate picking starts.

"In that process, 20 young voters would show up, say, 'What the hell is this?'" Trippi recounted. "They lasted about 20 minutes and then left to go grab a beer."

GOP's private ballots

Compared to the Democrats, the roughly 90,000 Hawkeye State Republicans expected to turn out tonight have it easy. They simply show up at 7 and after a few formalities and speeches on behalf of the candidates, cast private paper ballots.

Mitt Romney has built an Iowa machine of hundreds of paid staffers to turn out voters. Huckabee, his main rival, is banking on evangelical voters who tend to be the most reliable caucusgoers. The former Arkansas governor jokingly tells supporters to talk up the Orange Bowl game to any neighbors inclined to caucus for someone else.

"Shovel snow in their driveway if you have to," he said. "Disconnect their battery cable."

Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com or (727)893-8241.

The Des Moines Register poll

From Dec. 27-30:

Republican Democrats Mike Huckabee 32 Barack Obama32 Mitt Romney 26 Hillary Clinton 25 John McCain 13 John Edwards 24 Ron Paul 9 Bill Richardson 6 Fred Thompson 9 Joe Biden 4 Rudy Giuliani 5 Chris Dodd 2 Duncan Hunter 1 Dennis Kucinich 1 Alan Keyes 1 Uncommitted 6 Uncommitted 4

[Last modified January 2, 2008, 23:23:47]