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Letter to the editor

Why a stable Kenya benefits U.S.

By SUSAN TAYLOR MARTIN, Times Senior Correspondent
Published January 6, 2008

If you're wondering why you should care about the postelection violence in Kenya, just look at a map.

Kenya may be a long way from the United States, but it's right next door to Somalia, a Muslim country and a failed state if ever there was one. And Somalia is just across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen, where al-Qaida bombed the USS Cole in 2000, killing 17 American sailors. And Yemen borders Saudi Arabia, home to most of the hijackers who killed nearly 3,000 Americans on Sept. 11.

In short, Kenya is in a dangerous neighborhood, especially when it comes to U.S. security interests.

A close American ally, "Kenya has been an oasis of stability in a very volatile region," says Mark Bellamy, U.S. ambassador to Nairobi from 2003 to 2006. "It has really been on a path that we would like to encourage other countries to follow - up to now."

It's the "now" part that is causing so much alarm. Since Dec. 29, hundreds have been killed and about 100,000 displaced in the tribal mayhem that erupted after President Mwai Kibaki won what opponents say was a rigged election. Should Kenya spiral into chaos, there are fears it could become yet another breeding ground for Islamic extremists. Or a transit route for terrorists from Somalia and the Arabian peninsula making their way to North Africa - and on to Europe.

For more than a decade, al-Qaida and affiliated groups have tried to make Kenya itself a base of operations. They've had a few spectacular "successes" - the first time most Americans heard the name Osama bin Laden was in 1998 when al-Qaida blew up the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Tanzania, killing 230.

Another bombing in 2002 killed 13 tourists in a Kenyan hotel, while dozens more escaped death when an Israeli passenger jet was nearly downed by missiles.

Yet Kenya thus far has resisted the pull of extremism. Only about 10 percent of its 37-million people are Muslim, and most of those are moderates spread among diverse groups - Swahilis, South Asians, Arabs.

"It's not a Muslim population that's easily mobilized for jihadi purposes," Bellamy says. "It's an apolitical sort of Islam. That said, Kenya is an attractive place for potential extremists for a number of reasons."

As the bombings proved, radicals have been able to get into the country because of lax border controls. Corruption is rampant, especially among police and other public officials. Kenya has the region's best infrastructure, making it easier to move cargo, money and people. And while the new U.S. Embassy is well-secured, many potential targets remain among the thousands of Westerners working for regional embassies, the United Nations and nongovernmental organizations.

The Bush administration finds itself in a tough position in the current crisis because Kibaki - for all the complaints against him - has strong relations with the United States.

Military agreements have allowed U.S. troops to use Kenya as a staging area for regional crises, both natural and man-made. Kenya is among the top 10 recipients of U.S. foreign aid, collecting $240-million in 2005.

Thousands of Americans visit each year, while Kenya sends more students to the United States than any other African country. Literacy rates are relatively high, and the press is generally free.

"It has been a success story economically and politically in recent years," says Bellamy, now a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It's an important ally to us on security issues. It's a linchpin country."

Kibaki said Saturday that he is willing to form a unity government. Opposition leader Raila Odinga continued to demand an international mediator, but his spokesman appeared to back off demands that Kibaki step down.

While most experts doubt Kenya will completely unravel, Kibaki could find himself with a hostile Parliament and seething tribal and political anger that will make it difficult to govern.

"The risk then is that he has to resort to more repressive measures to keep the opposition in line," Bellamy says, "and that Kenya will slide backward into the Moi years."

That was the grim period between 1979 and 2002 when an increasingly despotic President Daniel arap Moi ordered secret police to infiltrate prodemocracy movements and even sanctioned the use of torture. U.S.-Kenyan relations frayed - not something the United States wants to see happen again with a big African nation so strategically important to Americans.

Information from the Associated Press was used in this report. Susan Taylor Martin can be contacted at susan@sptimes.com.

[Last modified January 5, 2008, 23:01:28]