Still a wide-open race
A Times EditorialPublished January 10, 2008
Instead of narrowing the field of presidential candidates, New Hampshire voters opened it up. Hillary Clinton's unexpected victory over Barack Obama ensured there will be no early knockout for the Democratic nomination. John McCain's comeback win revived his campaign and further scrambled the race for the Republican nomination, with as many as four candidates still in contention.
The healthy result is that more Americans in more diverse states will cast meaningful primary votes, candidates will be further tested and the eventual party nominees will be better for it. Now if only the Democrats would recognize how foolish they would be to keep ignoring Florida and join Republicans in campaigning here before the Jan. 29th primary.
Clinton's comeback in New Hampshire after her loss to Obama in Iowa is a testament to characteristic grit and unexpected emotion. Experience and policy expertise turn out not to be such bad things. It also doesn't hurt to occasionally appear genuine and unprogrammed. Polls showing her trailing apparently did not account for Clinton's strong debate performance Saturday night, when she vigorously defended her efforts to make change and answered a question about likability with perfect pitch. Her emotional response to an unanticipated question in a diner Monday seemed authentic and apparently helped her more than hurt her with New Hampshire voters.
Now Clinton's challenge is to inspire voters while defining her own vision for change to an electorate hungry for a new direction, and having Bill Clinton and his old allies at her side makes that more difficult. For all of the goodwill the former president has among many Democrats, his frustration and desperate attacks against Obama in New Hampshire recall the uglier, meaner side of the Clintons that this country does not need to revisit.
Obama faces a different challenge. The Illinois senator has tapped into the desire for a fresh face and a different approach to governing after the wedge politics of the Bush administration. Even in defeat, he delivered another soaring speech Tuesday night about hope and possibilities. But New Hampshire reaffirmed many voters want to hear more substance. Clinton, for example, won among voters most concerned about the economy. Obama needs to address those concerns with more specifics as the race moves to Nevada and South Carolina.
McCain's resurgence among the Republicans ensures that he remains a viable contender at least through the Florida primary. His independence, experience and integrity sharply contrast with one-time front-runner Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor whose strategy of building on early victories failed spectacularly. Romney's prodigious fundraising and organization cannot overcome his calculated shifting of positions in areas ranging from social issues to immigration. Whether he remains competitive may depend on Michigan, where McCain won the primary eight years ago.
Rudy Giuliani's strategy has always hinged on winning Florida, and that remains plausible with the mixed results from Iowa and New Hampshire. But the former New York mayor has to offer more than recounting 9/11 and fighting terrorism as the country appears headed toward an economic recession. Then there is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who rode his win in Iowa to third place in New Hampshire. The former Baptist preacher will compete well in South Carolina, where religious conservatives will make up more of the Republican primary vote. But Huckabee's populist message and homespun charm cannot paper over his overt mixing of religion and government or his extreme positions on tax policy and other issues.
For Republicans, Florida's turn is coming. For Democrats, there is only the faint hope that Clinton and Obama come to their senses and stop snubbing the state that could again decide who wins the White House.