Politics

Giuliani bets all on Florida

He played down earlier contests and now needs a decisive win in the Jan. 29 primary.

By DAVID DeCAMP, Times Staff Writer
Published January 12, 2008

Republican presidential hopeful and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and his wife Judith wave to supporters at the Coral Springs Charter School in Coral Springs on Friday.
	[AP photo]

Rudy Giuliani launches a major tour of Florida this weekend garnished with the trappings of success.

He consistently tops statewide polls, and he just put two new TV ads up. He's enjoying a certain amount of praise for his strategy of bypassing the earliest primary contests, now that the first three have failed to produce a front-runner.

And yet he hasn't sniffed a campaign victory - and probably won't before Florida votes on Jan. 29. What kind of case for a national presidential nomination is that?

He has finished no better than fourth in the first elections, nearer to libertarian insurgent Ron Paul than the top-tier candidates who are considered his rivals. So far, Iowa chose Mike Huckabee, New Hampshire chose Sen. John McCain, and Wyoming chose Mitt Romney.

Of course, those losses were expected. But the idea of making Florida the first primary you seriously compete in is not without risk.

"He's got to win Florida, and not only does he have to win, he has to win big," said David Johnson, an Atlanta-based political consultant who is not affiliated with any of the presidential campaigns. "A one- or two-point win over McCain or Huckabee isn't going to do it."

He's certainly trying. While the other contenders are in Michigan vying for votes in that state's Tuesday election, Giuliani will be here, just like he was in the days before Iowa voted.

On Thursday, Giuliani announced the creation of a task force to examine home insurance issues involving catastrophes, a matter close to every Floridian's heart, and made clear his intent by stacking this "national" group with Floridians.

For good measure, he reiterated that he supports the creation of a national catastrophe fund that could spread the burden of insuring against hurricanes with other states. It's an idea popular in Florida and other coastal states, but nearly nowhere else, which is why Congress has never considered it seriously.

"It's right for the government to play a role in seeing that fair, equitable and affordable private insurance markets are open for all our citizens," Giuliani announced.

Giuliani aides and supporters said the campaign is moving as planned. The muddled picture out of Iowa and New Hampshire is just what Giuliani had hoped for, partly because his best-organized Florida rival is Romney, who suffered two upset losses in those states.

Neither McCain nor Huckabee have Giuliani's money or Florida organizations. But Giuliani's commanding lead in the polls still has slipped. A poll Jan. 7 by Insider Advantage showed Giuliani led with 24 percent in Florida. McCain and Huckabee had 19 percent each, meaning Giuliani's lead is within the 5.5 percentage point margin of error.

The stakes in Florida are so high the campaign announced Friday that senior staffers for his campaign will forgo paychecks this month. No cash crunch, spokesman Elliott Bundy said, "We're just taking every precaution to make sure we have the resources in Florida."

Also Friday, Giuliani campaign manager Michael DuHaime said they began January with more than $7-million on hand for the primary; enough, he said, to carry out their Florida plan. A top Florida fundraiser, Tampa developer Al Austin, said there's been no fallout among donors for the early losses.

Still, the decision to make top staff members volunteers for a month puts in stark relief the dangers that critics say Giuliani faces with his strategy.

"He is certainly not in position that people would be eager to give money to. He's done nothing to demonstrate he would be a worthy candidate that people should give money to," said former Florida Republican Party chairman Tom Slade, who supports McCain.

While Giuliani has staked success on winning Florida, McCain and Huckabee both have chances for multiple victories heading into the Sunshine State.

There's no front-runner today, but if a single winner emerges from Michigan and South Carolina, that may no longer be true.

"If somebody runs the table before Florida, it's a different story," acknowledged former Gov. Bob Martinez, a Giuliani supporter. "That really changes the story."

On the day Michigan votes, Giuliani will be closing a three-day bus tour in Florida that begins Sunday in Miami and concludes in Jacksonville. Today, Giuliani is in Bradenton and Port Charlotte. Monday night, he will speak to a group of Pinellas Republicans at Tucson's Southwest Grill in Clearwater.

And when the other candidates leave Michigan, they mostly will turn their focus to South Carolina, whose GOP primary is four days later. Giuliani will begin a visit to the Florida Panhandle, spending at least two more days in the state.

Today is Giuliani's 30th Florida visit, which his supporters say is more important in Florida than the national press coverage that will go to the winner of the South Carolina primary.

"Who ever wins [South Carolina], you'll have somebody that has a win that's not decisive," Austin said. "You can't come into Florida with 10 days and hope to win the state."

David DeCamp can be reached at ddecamp@sptimes.com or 727 869-6232.

[Last modified January 12, 2008, 09:44:24]