Politics

McCain's momentum grows toward Florida

By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
Published January 13, 2008

John McCain is living large, capturing New Hampshire, along with former backers of faltering GOP candidates.
	[AP photo]

ADVERTISEMENT [Getty Images] Karl Rove has a fondness for Florida (see 2000 vote).

If John McCain can get through the Michigan and South Carolina primaries Tuesday and Saturday, get ready to see him practically move to Florida before our Jan. 29 primary. Already a series of fundraising events are lined up, and there's lots of buzz about former supporters for Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson looking to jump aboard the McCain team.

"It's the biggest change I've ever seen in a campaign. It's amazing," said Tallahassee lobbyist, buddy-o-Charlie Crist and uber fundraiser Brian Ballard, whose phone is ringing with offers of help from people who had written off the Arizona senator as toast. "(Fundraising) events that before would have been a strain to raise $35,000 to $50,000 we now think we can do $250,000."

Among the first ship jumpers to McCain? Former Tampa state Rep. Sandy Murman, who had been backing Fred Thompson.

Crist might be jumping on that bandwagon

Then there's the prospect of a Crist endorsement. McCain happens to be the only presidential candidate who campaigned for Crist during the gubernatorial primary against Tom Gallagher.

"The small list of people that really believed that Charlie was not going to endorse McCain has shrunk even further," said Republican consultant Rick Wilson, noting the Crist allies like Ballard aggressively helping McCain.

Said Crist: "I'm not convinced endorsements make a big difference ... and what impact they do make, it seems to be (better) if it's closer to the time people are voting."

When asked who he is leaning toward endorsing he answered: "Who do you think I should endorse?"

Giuliani's Florida push comes to Pinellas

Rudy Giuliani is expected to be in Florida virtually every day from now until the primary, and has 50 staff members working in the state. He will be in mid Pinellas Monday, holding a town hall-style meeting at the Pinellas GOP's regular meeting at Tucson's restaurant, 13563 Icot Blvd. Doors open at 5 p.m. Steve Forbes should be there, too, and the event is open to the public.

What boycott? Democrats voting absentee

Is that pesky Democratic boycott of Florida's presidential primary likely to dampen Democratic turnout Jan. 29? Not from the looks of absentee ballot voting through the middle of last week. Check out the numbers compiled by the Florida Democratic Party, which is making a real push to start catching up to the Republicans' long-standing absentee ballot advantage:

Statewide, 377,540 absentee ballots have been requested (354,135 have been mailed): D: 145,711 (39 percent); I: 47,773 (13 percent); R: 184,056 (49 percent). Statewide, 75,115 absentee ballots have been returned: D 31,228 (42 percent of total returned; 21% of total D ballots requested); I: 8,214 (11% of total returned; 17% of total I ballots requested); R: 35,673 (47% of total returned; 19% of total R ballots requested).

How about Clinton vs. McCain in the fall?

Check out Republican political consultant Adam Goodman hemming and hawing about his presidential campaign predications today on Political Connections. Reluctantly, and with lots of qualifiers, the former Giuliani adviser finally picked:

"I believe it's going to come down to John McCain in the Republican primary, with a real possible threat from either Rudy or (Mike) Huckabee. And on the Democratic primary I think Saint Hillary is going to rise enough to the occasion that she's going to be on the ballot and it's going to create one of the most interesting modern day national political campaigns this country has ever seen."

Political Connections airs on Bright House Network's Bay News 9 at 11 a.m. and 6:30 p.m.

Even Rove thinks Florida matters for Dems

It's not just the Buzz's parochial take that Florida's Democratic presidential primary matters big time, regardless of Democrats' boycotting and no delegates at stake. Here's Karl Rove in the Wall Street Journal predicting Barack Obama will beat Hillary Clinton in the Nevada caucuses Jan. 19 and South Carolina primary Jan. 26: "That means Florida on the 29th looms very large. The outcome of the contest in the Sunshine State is likely to have a disproportionate impact on the 23 contests on Super Tuesday."

GOP power trip: Crist, Greer, 'few friends'

Gov. Crist, state GOP chairman Jim Greer and a "few friends" headed to the Bahamas Saturday for some fun.

"I've invited a few of my friends and the governor has invited some friends," Greer said, after landing in South Carolina to attend tonight's Republican presidential debate on Fox News.

But Greer wouldn't say who those friends are, describing them as people who have been generous to the GOP and the Vote Yes on 1 campaign. "It's not a fundraiser," he insisted, adding that he might still "ask a few for help in the coming year."

"We're going down to have a day of fishing, some boating and maybe some golf," Greer said.

Adam C. Smith, Alex Leary, and Steve Bousquet contributed to this week's Buzz.

[Last modified January 12, 2008, 23:59:47]