Politics

Who can win Florida?

Democrats aren't sure whether Obama or Clinton would have a better shot in November.

By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
Published January 14, 2008

Democrats from conservative areas of Florida were convinced Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama can win Florida's 27 electoral votes in November, but few people see them as likely to be especially strong in Republican-heavy parts of the state, like the Panhandle.
	[AP photo]

If you're looking for Florida Democrats fired up about Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton, you might want to look somewhere besides Florida's Panhandle.

"Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama? You could flip a coin. I'm not too sure either one of them is going to run very well up in North Florida," said former Democratic state Rep. Dwight Stansel, a farmer from Wellborn who is running for Suwanee County tax collector.

He prefers John Edwards, a fellow Southerner.

"I could vote for John McCain even," Stansel said, "and there aren't too many Republicans I could vote for."

The recipe for a Democrat to win statewide in Florida is this: Win big in southeast Florida, stay competitive along the I-4 corridor loaded with swing voters, and avoid being crushed in conservative North Florida.

Bill Nelson and Alex Sink managed it in 2006, which is why one is a U.S. senator and the other is Florida's chief financial officer. John Kerry in 2004, and Jim Davis in 2006, didn't.

So, the Times field-tested Obama and Clinton against the recipe. In a random survey of Democratic politicians in conservative, or at least politically competitive, areas of the state, we found ambivalence and uncertainty over which leading Democrat would have a better shot at winning Florida in November.

"I don't know yet. I want someone, bottom line, who's going to be able to pick up those precincts in Florida and Ohio that John Kerry couldn't," said state Sen. Charlie Justice, D-St. Petersburg, who had hoped a Southern Democratic governor like Mike Easley of North Carolina or Mark Warner of Virginia would run.

He hasn't decided for whom he'll vote Jan. 29 but thinks Clinton might be the stronger general election candidate.

Judging electability is a tricky exercise.

Clinton has high negative ratings, but she also excites many female voters and die-hard Democrats and, polls suggest, could do particularly well among Cuban-Americans in South Florida.

Polls show Obama has low negative ratings and is popular among crucial independent and swing voters. But he has little conventional experience, and who knows how he would withstand tens of millions of dollars of negative ads.

"I have never in my life been so puzzled. I could give 10 arguments each way," said former Lt. Gov. Wayne Mixson, a conservative Democrat in Tallahassee, when asked who would be stronger in North Florida. "I'm inclined to vote for Obama. He's new, he's fresh."

Mixson, like every other Democrat interviewed for this story, was convinced Clinton or Obama can win Florida's 27 electoral votes in November. But few people saw them as likely to be especially strong in Republican-heavy parts of the state, like the Panhandle, and several avid Democrats were so pessimistic about the prospects of Obama and Clinton in North Florida that they declined to speak on the record.

"It's going to be a daunting challenge for any of the Democrats to do very well in North Florida, but I think Clinton - and Obama for that matter - has the ability to do as well as anyone," said former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rod Smith of Gainesville, a former state senator and Clinton supporter. "Florida is going to be close. Whoever wins, it's going to be close on either side."

Democratic Panama City Mayor Scott Clemons, though, thinks Clinton has a steeper hurdle.

"She will have difficulty in northwest Florida because of the perception that she's very liberal. It may not be fair, but that's the perception. Obama is new, he's fresh. He doesn't have the longtime attachments to the Democratic establishment she does."

In Bay County, where Clemons lives, Bill Clinton drew 33 percent of the vote in 1996, when he handily won Florida, though he was assisted by independent candidate Ross Perot, who siphoned Republican votes away from Bob Dole.

By comparison, Democrat Bill Nelson won 40 percent of the vote in Bay County when he beat Bill McCollum for U.S. Senate in 2000, and 49 percent when he beat Katherine Harris in 2006.

Former gubernatorial candidate Rick Dantzler of Lakeland supports Obama, whom he sees as the strongest candidate for winning over conservatives and swing voters. So he tested that theory last week by asking a middle-aged Republican woman who came to his office whether Obama or Clinton is more palatable.

"She said Clinton because she is known, and too much about Obama was unknown and in this day and age, unknown is unsettling," Dantzler recounted. "So much for my theory about which candidate has the most potential to gain support."

Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com or 727 893-8241.

[Last modified January 13, 2008, 21:25:40]