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Letter to the editor

Riding Rudy to a big Florida win

By SCOTT LONG, Times Staff Writer
Published January 17, 2008

Former New York City mayor Rudy Guiliani has ignored the early contests, confident that he'll ride a Sunshine State victory on Jan. 29 to the nomination.
	[AP photo]

Rudy Giuliani has gambled his entire candidacy on winning Florida.

I've gambled half of my Iowa Electronics Market investment that he's right.

And thus begins my investment, my gamble, my education into the presidential futures markets -- and the stock market in general.

I spent the weekend crafting my initial investment strategy and putting it into motion. I also found time to watch the Packers beat the Seahawks, which was far easier and a general reminder of why -- at age 35 -- I haven't yet found the time to open a brokerage account. It might be time to grow up.

So venture into the mind of this newbie investor. And save the political hate mail: If I'm wrong, you'll get your justice when I have to break the news to 400,000 readers -- including my wife -- that I've gone belly up:

Is Giuliani gold? The former New York City mayor has ignored the early contests, confident that he'll ride a Sunshine State victory on Jan. 29 to the nomination. Even if he doesn't win, he's probably kissed enough babies and shook enough hands that I can turn a profit with the 564 shares I bought between 16.9 and 20 cents apiece.

Who will Democrats dance with? My guess is Hillary Clinton 54.3 cents, but Barack Obama (44 cents) will bust a few moves in the next couple of contests. To me, that makes both of them undervalued. But I bought more of Obama (279 shares) than Clinton (175) with the intention of selling a big stake in Obama after South Carolina on Jan. 26.

Is it time to bundle up? The IEM is a nonprofit market, so "selling short" in the traditional sense can't be done. But you can buy a "bundle," which is one share of each candidate in a particular race, for $1 -- the price at which all winning shares pay. You then can sell off the shares you don't think will win. I nabbed 75 Democratic bundles and 100 Republican bundles, mostly to bolster my holdings in the big candidates, but also to dabble a little in "pink sheets" candidates like Fred Thompson and John Edwards.

I'm in the game now. Let's see if I know how to play.

Scott Long can be reached at long@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8556.

Portfolio snapshot

Times staff writer Scott Long has invested $500 in the Iowa Electronics Markets (iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/), hoping to learn about the stock market, become a more informed voter and, of course, make money.

• Day 5: $490.20
• Day-over-day: Up 1.9 percent
• Year-to-date: Down 2 percent
• Current portfolio: Heavy into Rudy Giuliani and Barack Obama. Average stakes in all other candidates, except for Mitt Romney (liquidated at a profit after his win in Michigan) and John Edwards (small stake with an eye toward South Carolina).

[Last modified January 17, 2008, 01:25:08]