Politics

Test awaits GOP hopefuls

Florida's closed primary could be a harbinger, offering a key gauge of party support.

By WES ALLISON, Times Staff Writer
Published January 21, 2008

Rudy Giuliani has staked his entire presidential bid on using a Florida victory to launch himself into the big primaries on Feb. 5. With a closed primary, the former New York City mayor could still be "facing some uphill battles."
	[AP photo]

ADVERTISEMENT [AP photo] The big winner under Florida's system could be Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas and an ordained Southern Baptist minister. Social conservatives and evangelical voters, a large chunk of the Republican grass roots, have been gravitating to him. [AP photo] John McCain, winner of the open primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, could face a similar challenge as Giuliani without independent voters.

It's not just bigger, with better weather.

Florida's political landscape is vastly different from any the presidential candidates have faced in this primary season for a simple, mechanical reason: The voting booths aren't open to just anyone.

Unlike in New Hampshire and South Carolina, where anyone can vote in any party primary they choose, Florida voters can vote only in the primary of the party to which they are registered.

So the independents who carried John McCain to victory in South Carolina on Saturday and in New Hampshire earlier this month? Or the transplanted New York Democrats who might cross over for a pro-choice moderate like Rudy Giuliani? They'll have to wait until November, if their candidates can last that long.

Florida's closed primary, the first of the year, has the potential to reorder the field, especially for the Republicans. The Democrats have no delegates at stake, and the candidates aren't campaigning here.

The results, too, are likely to provide a better gauge of what rank-and-file partisans like or don't like about their candidates. That could be key on Feb. 5 when 24 states choose, mostly in closed primaries.

"When you have a closed primary, you get a better pulse of what the party activists and all different segments of the party are feeling," said Jim Greer, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida. ""The conversation on Feb. 5 will be about, 'What did Florida do?'"

Polls show McCain, Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee bunched near the top in the state, and all four candidates are very much alive nationally. Florida voters have the chance to winnow the field and, perhaps, anoint a front-runner.

"We are a microcosm of the nation," said U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., who hasn't endorsed a candidate. "Whoever wins Florida can claim to have a national advantage."

To win Florida's 57 delegates, the most at stake so far, the candidates will need to energize the hard-core Republicans who vote in primary elections. Daniel Smith, a political scientist at the University of Florida and interim director of UF's political campaigning program, said the closed primary will significantly reduce the clout of moderates.

The big winner under Florida's system could be Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas and an ordained Southern Baptist minister. Social conservatives and evangelical voters, a large chunk of the Republican grass roots, have been gravitating to him, and he's likely to benefit from their strong get-out-the-vote operation, Smith said.

"I think Huckabee could make a really impressive play in Florida, largely because of the closed primary system," Smith said. "I see McCain and Giuliani facing some uphill battles in the next few days."

Giuliani and McCain both do well among moderates, who helped deliver the nomination of Republican Gov. Charlie Crist. In fact, Giuliani has staked his entire presidential bid on using a Florida victory to launch himself into the big primaries on Feb. 5.

State Sen. Jim King, R-Jacksonville, who supports McCain, said the candidates must aggressively target their base of support within the Republican Party, which is more diverse in Florida than in New Hampshire, Iowa or South Carolina.

But after years of bucking the party and President Bush on a range of issues as a U.S. senator from Arizona, McCain is distrusted by many social conservatives, and he has angered others by opposing tax cuts that weren't paired with cuts in federal spending. Exit polls in South Carolina showed he narrowly lost to Huckabee among Republicans, especially among conservatives.

"Independents can't save McCain in Florida," said Kevin Madden, Romney's communications director.

In addition to highlighting his military service, including five years as a POW in North Vietnam, King said McCain must remind voters of his yearslong crusade against federal waste and pork, and his overall support for cutting taxes - a red-meat issue for the GOP base.

King said he also expects McCain to polish his conservative credentials on social issues as he did in South Carolina last week, particularly his long-held opposition to abortion.

"I don't think the far-right Republicans have written McCain off," King said. "He just hasn't targeted them in what he's saying until now."

Giuliani also suffers among social conservatives because of his support of gay rights and abortion.

As the mayor of New York City during the 1990s, he also advocated tougher gun laws, which Bill Bunting, chairman for the Pasco County Republican Executive Committee, said may bring trouble in a state where nearly 500,000 people are licensed to carry a concealed weapon.

"He's going to have to do some hard sweating if he sits down with us," said Bunting, a gun rights advocate who last fall was escorting Fred Thompson around gun shows.

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, is selling himself as the most well-rounded conservative, touting his successful business record as well as his support of conservative social and fiscal policies, from cutting taxes and spending to growing the U.S. military.

U.S. Rep. Tom Feeney, a conservative Orlando-area Republican who endorsed Romney, said he's glad Republican voters, not independents, will be choosing Florida's nominee, and it bodes well for finding the best candidate to represent the party.

"Attitudes about war on terror, Iraq, economy are different for Republicans than other people," he said.

The GOP candidates "have a lot of differences, and I think that's good. It makes for stimulating debate about policy and the future of the country. It's not just about the pretty candidate, or the candidate you want to have tea with."

Wes Allison can be reached at allison@sptimes.com or 202 463-0577.

Fast facts

If you vote

What: the 2008 Florida primary

When: Tuesday, Jan. 29

Who can vote: registered Republicans and Democrats.

What about independents?

They can vote on the property tax amendment, but not in the presidential race.

What's at stake?

For the Democrats, not much - Florida lost its delegates to the Democratic National Convention over a dispute about the primary date. Winning would be nice, but the top candidates already are looking ahead to Feb. 5, when two dozen states choose. They are not even campaigning here.

For the Republicans, however, the stakes are high. The winner will assume a mantle of national viability and get a burst of momentum going into Feb. 5.

[Last modified January 20, 2008, 21:53:57]