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To maximize vote market profit, sleep is not an option

By SCOTT LONG, Times Staff Writer
Published January 25, 2008

Can you really time the market?

It's the financial equivalent of "which came first, the chicken or the egg?" or "who killed the Golden Globes, the writers or the studios?" Both sides have fervent supporters, but in the end, it's a question without an answer.

If you're a disciple of the Warren Buffett buy-and-hold style, you probably say "no." If you're a day trader, squeezing the stuffing out of your stress ball, you probably say "yes."

Will my exercise in the Iowa Electronics Markets get me closer to an answer? Probably not. Unlike the Nasdaq, the presidential futures market has a shelf life. Once the elections are over, so is that particular market. So time is very much of the essence. And that's a lesson I learned, courtesy of Mitt Romney.

I had bought a small stake in the former Massachusetts governor when he was trading at 12.9 cents a share. I figured the Republican would win the Michigan primary and then I could liquidate my stake at profit.

The good news: I was right.

The bad news: I wasn't right enough.

On the night of the primary, Anderson Cooper gave me the good news. Romney won. I went to bed, dreaming of getting fat and happy in the morning.

When I awoke, Romney shares were selling for 20.1 cents. I promptly sold all of mine for a 56 percent profit - but not before realizing the market had topped out at 29.5 cents a share during the night. While I was deep in slumber, my fellow traders were deep in profit-taking.

Lesson learned.

A few days later, I set up limit orders on my small stakes in Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee. Figuring they would get a boost from the South Carolina results, I wasn't about to wait for the morning paper to hit the driveway to cash in this time.

Alas, there would be no bump for Fred. No bump for Mike, either. And certainly no bump for Scott. Once again, my fellow traders were one step - one day - ahead of me.

So even in a timed market, perhaps trying to "time" it is every bit as futile as choosing between the chicken or the egg, between the writers or the studios.

Does anyone have Warren Buffett's phone number?

Scott Long can be reached at long@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8556.

Portfolio snapshot

Day 14: $433.34

Week-to-week: Down 11.6 percent

Year-to-date: Down 13.3 percent

Times staff writer Scott Long has invested $500 in the Iowa Electronics Markets (iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/), hoping to learn about the stock market, become a more informed voter and, of course, make money.

Current portfolio: Rudy Giuliani (564 shares), Barack Obama (356), Mike Huckabee (300), John McCain (229), Hillary Clinton (175), John Edwards (75). No cash on hand.

[Last modified January 24, 2008, 23:04:29]