And the 2008 box office blockbusters are . . .

Sure, it's only January, but we're making predictions. Just remember: Foretelling which films will rake in the most money, and how much, isn't an exact science.

By Steve Persall, Times Film Critic
Published January 25, 2008

ADVERTISEMENT [Warner Bros.] Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince should be one of the year's top-grossing films.

Indiana Jones and James Bond wouldn't risk this mission. Harry Potter might, but he has magical powers.

I'm going where Batman and the Narnia kids fear to tread, where no Star Trek captain has gone before: predicting 2008's biggest movie hits, in order by estimated box office receipts.

These rankings were composed using a precisely calibrated formula of factors, proportions and ratios, confirmed by renowned industry analysts and . . .

Just kidding, folks. I'm guessing all the way.

Keep in mind that these rankings aren't a prediction of cinematic quality, but of which movies will be easiest to sell to audiences. So illustrious track records Indiana Jones, Harry Potter, James Bond or brand names such as Disney-Pixar mean a lot.

Keeping things clean - or at least to PG-13 standards - considerably widens the potential audience. Head's up, still-unrated Sex and the City: Only three R-rated movies (300, Knocked Up and American Gangster) ranked among the top 20 hits of 2007.

Any movies in theaters during summer and holidays have distinct advantages. But going head-to-head with another flick aiming for the same audience is dicey. That's why the Get Smart remake, starring Steve Carell, and Mike Myers' The Love Guru (both opening June 20) aren't sure hits.

So much for the handicapping trends. What actually happens to ticket sales also depends upon fickle fate and audience reactions.

Positive word-of-mouth elevates box office receipts, just as early dissing can be deadly. Stars such as Tom Cruise or Lindsay Lohan draw fans, but can alienate some moviegoers with their real-life shenanigans. Dire current events and severe weather can also keep people out of the theaters.

We can count on at least one sleeper hit to emerge, defying all the established rules while making new ones.

Each box office prediction counts U.S. ticket sales only, since those are the numbers the studios trumpet each week like football scores. As always, release dates are subject to change.

With such nebulous factors at work, tracking Hollywood's fortunes can be more surprising than some of its movies. I fully expect at least some of my guesses to be proven wrong, but for now, here we go, starting with my pick for 2008's top moneymaker.

Steve Persall can be reached at persall@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8365. Read his blog at blogs.tampabay.com/movies.

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (May 22). Nineteen years after hanging up his bullwhip, Harrison Ford returns as the daredevil archaeologist battling Cold War Communists. Blockbuster specialists Steven Spielberg and George Lucas are keeping details guarded but we know Indy reunites with his Raiders of the Lost Ark flame Marion Ravenwood (Karen Allen), now with a son (Shia LaBeouf) who may be their love child. Box office prediction: $345-million.

2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Nov. 21). The sixth entry in the foolproof series finds the boy wizard (Daniel Radcliffe) edging closer to a final showdown with evil Lord Voldemort (Ralph Fiennes). Knowing how novelist J.K. Rowling's saga ends shouldn't be a problem for fervent fans with two more movies to see. Box office prediction: $297-million.

3. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (May 16). The faith-based/fantasy marketing campaign that earned $292-million from U.S. moviegoers for the first chronicle will be in full force. Brave children who defeated the White Witch will struggle to restore Caspian to his rightful throne. Box office prediction: $288-million.

4. The Dark Knight (July 18). Batman returns. Wait, that title was already used. Director Christopher Nolan takes his Batman Begins mission further, replacing Jack Nicholson's "Cesar Romero" Joker with the late Heath Ledger's sinister clown. Christian Bale is the best caped crusader not named Adam West. Replacing Katie Holmes with Maggie Gyllenhaal is a plus. Box office prediction: $275-million.

5. Hancock (July 2). The former movie champion of Fourth of July weekends has a great shot at regaining his crown. Will Smith of Independence Day (yay!), Men in Black (yay!), Wild Wild West (boo!) and Men in Black II (double boo!) stars as a degenerate superhero discovering his good side. The preview trailers offer enough dark hilarity and jiggy Smith to guarantee a huge debut. Box office prediction: $268-million.

6. WALL*E (June 27). Kind of like I Am Legend, only animated by Pixar and with a trash-collecting robot instead of Smith. On a deserted Earth in the year 2700, WALL*E (Waste Allocation Load Lifter Earth-Class) finds evidence in a trash bin that humans can safely return home. Can't wait for the pet cockroach plush toy. Box office prediction: $257-million.

7. Iron Man (May 2). The Marvel Comics superhero role that passed from Tom Cruise to Nicolas Cage winds up with Robert Downey Jr. He's one of five Oscar nominees (including Jeff Bridges, Samuel L. Jackson, Terrence Howard and winner Gwyneth Paltrow) in a movie that promises to be worth the wait. Downey gets to be heroic and jaunty as a terrorism-fighting tycoon, then sit back while computer animation experts take over the movie and his image. Box office prediction: $238-million.

8. Kung Fu Panda (June 6). An impressive comedy cast provides voices for DreamWorks' next animated smash. Jack Black speaks for Po, a lazy but adorable panda bear who must master martial arts to save his village. Jackie Chan, Seth Rogen, Dustin Hoffman and Angelina Jolie add theirs to a can't-miss summertime treat. Box office prediction: $207-million.

9. Untitled James Bond movie (Nov. 7). That Daniel Craig is making an encore as agent 007 after a smashing Casino Royale debut is all moviegoers need to know. That's good, because director Marc Forster - an interesting choice after Finding Neverland and The Kite Runner - just began filming this month. Enough moviegoers don't mind what Bond does as long as he does it. Box office prediction: $199-million.

10. Horton Hears a Who (March 14). Dr. Seuss the way he should be delivered: animated rather than Ron Howard's Grinch live-action stuff. Keeping Jim Carrey around is a good idea, though, voicing a cuddly elephant protecting microscopic Whoville from the big, wide, dangerous world. If the movie reaches beyond toddlers to teenagers, this ranking gets a bullet. Box office prediction: $192-million.

11. Madagascar: The Crate Escape (Nov. 7). Ben Stiller, Chris Rock and David Schwimmer again voice the zoo animals, still in Africa and wishing they were home in Central Park. Weren't they happy when the first flick ended? Hey, after an unremarkable yet pleasant movie makes nearly $200-million, you make a sequel. Box office prediction: $177-million.

12. Speed Racer (May 9). Maybe the riskiest pick on the list. The fanboys had better turn out with the enthusiasm shown on the Web, since a live-action version of a Japanese anime cult hit from 1960s television isn't Indiana Jones. Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild) races his Mach 5 supercar to success. Yeah, that's it. But the Wachowski brothers (The Matrix) are in charge. But they also made the sequels to The Matrix. Box office prediction: $176-million.

13. Sex and the City: The Movie (May 30). The slinky devils wear Prada, Manolo Blahnik and their hearts on their sleeves. HBO's comedy hit can't get any racier onscreen, so the key is attracting feminine moviegoers who find summertime superheroes gauche. Sarah Jessica Parker must prove Maxim wrong about that "Unsexiest woman alive" title. Box office prediction: $168-million.

14. Star Trek (Dec. 25). Director J.J. Abrams (Lost) takes the franchise back to the future, tracing the Starfleet Academy roots of Capt. Kirk (Chris Pine), Mr. Spock (Zachary Quinto) and the Enterprise crew. Going young is a wise move although Leonard Nimoy reappears as Spock to mentor himself, in case any old-school Trekkers are offended. Box office prediction: $148-million (stretching into 2009).

15. The Incredible Hulk (July 13). Not a sequel to 2003's disappointing Hulk but a reboot with a new star (Edward Norton) and production talent, reportedly featuring more action and less psychoanalysis. This time, Russian scientists use Hulk's DNA to create a creature called the Abomination. Universal's marketing team gets the tough job of convincing moviegoers they haven't seen this before. Box office prediction: $142-million.

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10 movies that could crack the Top 15:

- Roland Emmerich's prehistoric adventure 10,000 B.C. (March 7) opens almost exactly one year after the testosterone epic 300. Even if it isn't as exciting, a PG-13 rating and the saber-toothed tiger in previews will sell tickets.

- You Don't Mess With the Zohan (June 6) is a bad title for a dumb idea: An Israeli assassin fakes his death and becomes a Manhattan hairdresser. Add Adam Sandler and the project becomes a box office player.

- Writer-director M. Night Shyamalan (The Sixth Sense) gets one more chance to prove he isn't a fluke with The Happening (June 13), an ecological thriller starring Mark Wahlberg.

- Steve Carell plays bumbling secret agent Maxwell Smart in Get Smart (June 20), based on Mel Brooks' 1960s TV hit. Anne Hathaway (The Devil Wears Prada) co-stars as his comely colleague, Agent 99.

- The Love Guru (June 20) marks Mike Myers' return to live-action comedy, playing a shaggy, spiritual guide to a lovelorn hockey player (Romany Malco) whose wife left him for Justin Timberlake. That'll take some serious karma to correct.

- Paranormal agents Mulder (David Duchovny) and Scully (Gillian Anderson) get exhumed for an as-yet-untitled X-Files sequel (July 25). Details are under wraps but rumors are no aliens will be hurt this time around.

- Talladega Nights' Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly return in Step Brothers (July 25), playing spoiled man children at odds when their single parents get married.

- Mamma Mia! (July 18). The Broadway hit formed around the 1970s pop songs of ABBA divided audiences and critics, so of course it becomes a movie. Meryl Streep plays the mother of a bride seeking the identity of her biological father. Don't underestimate the revival feeling of Mamma Mia!'s live shows, or the Hairspray factor.

- The Day the Earth Stood Still (Dec. 12). Keanu Reeves' otherworldly vibe suits the role of an alien warning earthlings to clean up their act or face destruction. This could benefit from the same holiday season popcorn appeal that boosted another sci-fi remake, I Am Legend.

- Revolutionary Road (Dec. 19). What is a serious drama based on an acclaimed novel doing on this hit list? Consider that it stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, who co-starred in a little movie called Titanic, the highest-grossing film of all time.

[Last modified January 24, 2008, 10:28:06]