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Politics

All aboard Obama bandwagon to cash in

By SCOTT LONG, Times Staff Writer
Published February 21, 2008

Just when I thought I had this all figured out.

Just when I learned how to time the market, just when I learned the importance of liquidity, just when I learned how little chance Rudy Giuliani really had.

Just when I learned all of that and was ready to use it to seriously make a run at investing in the Iowa Electronic Markets, the fun is almost over.

The IEM works just like a stock market, but you trade shares of presidential candidates instead. So when John McCain starts shifting his strategy toward November, and Barack Obama rings up yet another primary win, the market dries up with them.

Just when I thought I had this all figured out.

On Feb. 7, Mitt Romney quit. Minutes later, I sold all 235 of my shares in McCain at 95 cents each. I had bought all but a handful of them at 47 cents or less each.

Now, I had money to play with on the more lucrative, blue side of my ledger.

The new plan? Play the Obama/Hillary Clinton seesaw, selling when one hits 60 cents and buying when one hits 40 cents. The idea? As impulsive as many traders are in the IEM, I'd rack up tiny profits every day as the herd went one way, then went the other.

But Obama just didn't cooperate.

He steamrolled through primary after primary. Oh, it's not over, I know. It would be foolish to think that, considering how dynamic this contest has been. But the only opinion that matters to me is that of my fellow traders. And they're not buying that Clinton has a chance.

The newest plan? Quietly sell Clinton, quietly buy Obama.

And that's been my routine for the past four days. Sell what the market would buy, buy what the market would sell. And this morning, the last of my Clinton shares were entrusted to a trader who has more faith in her than me - and the market.

I'm all in on Obama. Just a smidge more than 700 shares in the man who has captured his party's imagination, if not yet its nomination. Unless he stumbles, each of those 703 shares will turn into a dollar after the convention in August.

Unless he stumbles, I'll walk away from this investing exercise with $200 more than I walked in with. Not bad for someone who's made as many mistakes as I have. The investor in me? He's quite pleased. The gambler in me? Well, I'm sure he's hoping for one of those famous Clinton Comebacks.

I'm sure he'd like just one more chance ... just when he thought he had this all figured out.

Scott Long can be reached at long@sptimes.com or (727) 893-8556.

Portfolio snapshot

Day 41: $551.01

Week-over-week: Up 17.1 percent

Year-to-date: Up 10.2 percent

Times staff writer Scott Long has invested $500 in the Iowa Electronics Markets (iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/), hoping to learn about the stock market, become a more informed voter and, of course, make money.

Current portfolio: Everything (703 shares) in Barack Obama.

On the Web: Read previous columnsat money.tampabay.com.

[Last modified February 21, 2008, 06:32:34]