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Column: State's lies about jobs just aren't working

Sure, there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

By Robert Trigaux, Times Business Editor
Published March 9, 2008

Sure, there are lies, damn lies and statistics.

And then there are the numbers Florida issues in press releases about the state of jobs in the Sunshine State.

If you did not catch Times reporter Kris Hundley's front page story Saturday, here's the point: The state's Agency for Workforce Innovation has been happily spewing press releases that, at least since last summer, have declared each month that thousands of jobs have been created in the Tampa Bay area. Well, exactly the opposite is true. The Tampa Bay economy hit the skids last July and has been losing jobs - lots of jobs - every single month since then.

Not that anyone would know, since the state publicized surveys that found Tampa Bay enjoyed net gains in jobs each month in the latter half of 2007 of 18,000, 15,300, 13,400, 16,700, 12,400 and 13,500 over the corresponding month of 2006.

In reality, over the same period this market lost jobs each month totaling 7,700, 9,000, 15,900, 12,800, 12,800 and 15,200.

This inaccurate and misleading data charade is an insult to every businessperson and working stiff across Tampa Bay. Forget looking at the economy through rose-colored glasses. This borders on hallucinogenic.

The state says it puts out press releases on jobs based on small samplings so the business community can get quicker data. But what's the point? The state seems undisturbed by its lack of statistical rigor or it has grown too enamored with putting a positive spin on a clearly struggling economy.

All of this is embarrassing enough, but there's more. While the state's been issuing monthly press releases to report solid job growth here, it never bothers to do the same when it revises that data - numbers that since last summer show Tampa Bay's employment scene has been sucking wind.

Let's not forget Times reporter James Thorner's story last month that separately challenged the accuracy of area job numbers. The Tampa Bay area is concentrated with employee leasing firms. Though they represent outsourced workers all over the state, each one is counted as if he or she works here. Strike 2.

This is bush league economic research. If we're going to live in a state that loves to brag about being a "jobs engine," let's at least get the numbers right.

Robert Trigaux can be reached at trigaux@sptimes.com.

[Last modified March 7, 2008, 22:44:16]