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    A Times Editorial

    Leave it alone

    George W. Bush would be better off leaving recession worries to the pros - Alan Greenspan and the Fed - and forgetting about selling his tax plan as a solution.

    © St. Petersburg Times, published January 5, 2001


    The Federal Reserve surprised everyone Wednesday when it cut short-term interest rates by half a percentage point to 6 percent. The stock market instantly turned from gloom to zoom, with the struggling Nasdaq Composite Index rocketing 14.2 percent, a record. The Fed, led by Chairman Alan Greenspan, is trying to head off a recession by bolstering the stock market and consumer confidence.

    The news wasn't enough to change President-elect George W. Bush's mind, however. While he supported the rate cut as a "bold step," he used the news as another opportunity to push his $1.6-trillion tax cut. "When I get sworn in as president, I intend to take another bold step, and that is to ask the Congress to work with us to enact tax reform and tax reductions," he added.

    No doubt the interest rate cut was needed, though perhaps a little late in coming. Bush's tax cut is another matter. A large tax cut could be inflationary, a negative influence working against the Fed's actions. And few economists see a tax cut over 10 years as a short-term fix for the current troubles afflicting the economy and the stock market.

    Most disturbing is Bush's practice of not letting the facts get in the way of his rhetoric. During the campaign, when the economy was booming, Bush said the federal government could afford to return some of the surplus to Americans through a tax cut. When financial markets slumped, Bush said a tax cut was needed to stimulate the economy. It appears that Bush will change his rationale for a tax cut to meet any situation, a tactic that is unlikely to build public confidence.

    By repeating his tax-cut mantra rather than working toward consensus with a divided Congress, Bush is missing a chance to accomplish meaningful tax reform. House Democratic leader Richard Gephardt said he would consider a bigger tax cut than Democrats have supported in the past if a recession is on the horizon and the cuts are aimed at those who need them. As spelled out in the campaign, most of the benefits of Bush's tax-cut plan would go to higher-income families. While recognizing their differences, Gephardt is indicating a willingness to compromise.

    What are some of the elements of meaningful tax reform? Ending the marriage penalty has bipartisan support, and both parties would apparently accept tax incentives to help working families. But two issues -- spending the bulk of the expected surplus on tax cuts and reducing the marginal tax brackets for all income levels -- are of dubious economic value and would be divisive.

    Bush would be wise to drop the recorded message on tax cuts and to focus on using the federal surplus responsibly and building bipartisan support for tax reform. He should leave short-term adjustments to the economy to those who know what they are doing: Greenspan and the Fed.

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