Opinion: Dantzler could give Democrats hope

Dantzler could give Democrats hope

By MARTIN DYCKMAN

Rick Dantzler, who starved for attention when he was running for governor of Florida two years ago, made the front page of the New York Times this week as a potential candidate for Congress.

He's seriously interested, by the way. If he says yes, that would be some of the best news Florida Democrats and the national party could hope for. Highly respected as a state legislator from Winter Haven for 15 years, Dantzler, 43, would be an exceptionally strong contender for the 12th District seat that Republican Charles Canaday is giving up. Without Dantzler, the Democrats might not even have a candidate.

That was the main point of the Times piece: how hard it has become for both major parties to recruit good candidates for the House of Representatives. In a year when a shift of merely five seats would return the Democrats to power, fewer than 50 districts -- out of 435 -- will be strongly contested. As in 1998, most will be cakewalks for incumbents.

The principal reasons are no less disturbing for their familiarity: The intensity and high costs of congressional campaigning. The moral and practical burdens of fundraising. The impact on families. The daunting odds against taking on incumbents in districts that were gerrymandered to be noncompetitive.

A poll of 397 potential candidates in 200 districts turned up fundraising as the greatest deterrent by far; 34 percent said it would strongly discourage them. Nineteen percent cited separation from family and friends, Dantzler's concern.

The newspaper also found a peculiar cyclical anxiety. Candidates fear they could win seats in 2000 only to face a lot of unfamiliar voters after the redistricting of 2002. That's the secondary reason, after money, why state Rep. Lori Edwards, D-Auburndale, opted not to run for Canaday's seat.

"All of a sudden the price tag for this race was going up to $1-million," she said. "So even if I was elected, not only would I have to turn around and raise $1-million again, but the Republican-controlled state Legislature is not going to be too happy about losing this seat."

So far, only two Republicans have filed for it. State Rep. Adam Putnam of Bartow is the likely GOP nominee.

Dantzler, who became Buddy MacKay's running mate when he sensed he couldn't defeat MacKay for the gubernatorial nomination, wasn't figuring to run for Congress. He and his wife Julie had ruled it out in April in the best interests of their family.

But House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt has been to see Dantzler four times "and calls frequently." There are pleas from Patrick Kennedy, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair.

"They really regard it as a seat they can win," Dantzler says.

So does he. Democratic in registration but Republican in performance, the district was competitive when Canaday won it with 52.1 percent of the vote in 1992. Dantzler, who said he knew that governor was a long shot, thinks this race would be different.

But that doesn't necessarily mean he will do it.

"I think I could finance the race," he said. "It's just a matter of whether it fits in with me and my family. ... My girls will be 14 and 12 at the beginning of that term, and that's a hard time for a dad to be away so much. I live with three pretty independent women. They know the drill, but I'm not sure I'd want to miss it."

On the other hand, he noted, "history would suggest that unless I jump back in, I'd probably fade right back into the sunset."

Dantzler expects to decide within several weeks. He's less concerned than Edwards about redistricting. He notes that Florida is in line for a 24th seat, which is likely to be put in the Daytona Beach area (or perhaps in Palm Beach), minimizing the chance of any serious shake-up in west-central Florida.

Even so, he has urged the state party to contribute to the campaign for a proposed initiative, "People Over Politics," that would create an independent commission to redistrict Congress and the Legislature. In California, where the Republican minority fears partisan gerrymandering as much as Florida Democrats do, the national GOP has contributed $250,000 to a similar initiative. But in Florida, "People Over Politics" hasn't raised a dime. Co-chair Dexter Douglass says he has "about run out of gas" and "almost out of time."

Charles Whitehead, the Florida Democratic chairman, says the state party hasn't enough money to spend it on a redistricting initiative. But he says he's urged the DCCC to consider investing in it.

If Gephardt is looking for a way to clinch Dantzler's candidacy, that just could be it.