State: Experts: Florida economy cooling

TALLAHASSEE -- Like the rest of the country, Florida's robust economy is slowing down, but the landing is likely to be softer here, economists said Thursday.

Gov. Jeb Bush heard from his Council of Economic Advisers that the growth in the national economy slowed considerably in the second half of last year and that while there will be a lag time, Florida will also feel the effects.

But Florida's top industry will feel the impact sooner because it depends on the economy in states where everyone else lives.

"We see that impact immediately in tourism," economist Hank Fishkind told Bush.

Fishkind said that while the number of visitors to the state continues to grow, the growth is slowing.

"The first half of 2000 compared to the first half of '99, the numbers are up, yes, but the increase in the number of visitors has slowed," Fishkind said, citing data from hotel room nights and state data on hotel tax collections.

"And that (slowing in growth) is likely to continue over at least the next six months to a year," Fishkind said.

The most recent figures from Visit Florida, the public-private partnership that promotes tourism in Florida, show that the number of visitors in July, August and September of last year was up 11 percent over the same time in 1999.

But the state changed the way it counts visitors, so there isn't an official estimate on the pace of growth, said Barry Pitegoff, Visit Florida's vice president of research.

Pitegoff said, "We've been feeling the growth in tourism may well be less than the growth than we saw last year."

Florida is seeing the same slowdown that the national economy is experiencing. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress on Thursday that the economy is undergoing a dramatic slowdown, estimating current growth at "very close to zero."

Economists told Bush, however, that Florida's economy should continue to grow, partly because the state's economy is insulated from slowdowns in manufacturing of heavy products, such as cars; there is little such industry here.

This week, Enterprise Florida, the state's public-private economic development partnership, released its Florida Economic Bulletin, looking at the state's economy during the third quarter of last year.

"While Florida's economy generally follows broader national trends, for the past several years its growth rates ... have outpaced the overall economy," the organization said.

"Nevertheless, major indicators of economic activity in Florida, such as employment growth and building permits issued, began to show signs of slowing down, although international trade remained robust."

Consumer confidence is still high in Florida, but not as high as it has been, the economists said, although the slowdown may soon show up in a drop off in car sales.

Another area that so far has been insulated from the slow down is housing starts, Fishkind said. That could be partly because people who decided to move to Florida made that decision earlier before signs the economy was slowing.

"The pipeline is filled up and people are coming," he said. "Construction growth is holding up very well."

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Lucy Morgan

From the Times state desk